"Thrive in '25"?
"Survive 'til '25" was a phrase often heard at last year's EXPO REAL (Messe München). Nearly one year on, attendees at this year's EXPO will be waiting to see if that sentiment remains as we enter Q4 2024, or whether a more upbeat outlook now prevails.
It is fair to say that the world of offshore corporate real estate has been less buoyant in 2024 than in other years, yet there has also been cause for optimism, particularly in light of the Bank of England's recent cut in interest rates for the first time in four years and a growing sentiment that the real estate market has reached its nadir (for example, a recent article by Property Week reported that according to BLME estimates Gulf investors are "set to pump £3.1bn into UK commercial property").
In the Channel Islands, we have seen a steady increase throughout 2024 of downstream real estate deals by Guernsey and Jersey investment vehicles and an accompanying increase in new lending (often from alternative providers) in the real estate sector, in the UK and further afield. Guernsey and Jersey remain key enablers of inward investment into UK and other real estate markets (a recent report commissioned by Guernsey Finance from Frontier Economics found that Guernsey alone channels £57 billion of capital into the UK on an ongoing basis, including facilitating the investment of approximately £11 billion in property, £8 billion in infrastructure and leading to £3-4 billion of annual social value for the UK (for example, via improved social housing)) – indications are that this contribution will only increase into 2025 and beyond.
So what to expect from EXPO REAL 2024? As well as much discussion around prevailing geopolitical and macroeconomic factors, we're anticipating, amongst other things, a focus on AI and ESG, different asset classes, changes in use of office space and the continued emergence of alternative lenders. More importantly, we are hoping (and are cautiously optimistic) that the message from this year's EXPO will be "thrive in '25"….
If you would like to catch up with us at EXPO, please do get in touch.
Bedell Cristin Tom Davies Martin Paul
Tom Davies, Kate Ovenden and Martin Paul are heading to EXPO REAL (Messe München) in Munich this October.
EXPO REAL is a major international trade fair for real estate and investment and we look forward to catching up on developments in the real estate sector and connecting with old and new contacts.
To find out more about the event, arrange a meeting with Tom, Kate or Martin and view our related resources, please visit our EXPO REAL page: https://loom.ly/hyTAFa8
We look forward to welcoming your team. Many thanks for joining us SATOIA S.A.