Scott Ashby’s Post

IS CHINA GROWING AT 5%? No, of course not. China's barely growing at all, let alone 5%. The only question is why so many supposedly savvy analysts, both foreign and Chinese, still assume official GDP statistics are reliable. Ask yourself these questions: Do large company earnings fall quarter after quarter after quarter in an economy where GDP is growing at 5%? Does an economy desperately need stimulus - - as everyone including CCP officials keep saying they do - - if they are growing at 5%? Is it typical for a country to grow in real terms at 5% in the midst of a massive property bust? Is it plausible that real GDP is growing at 5% in an economy in the midst of deflation? China remains stuck in a deep ditch and will experience economic stagnation for years to come absent a 180 reversal by Xi Jinping. A key factor preventing Xi from taking stronger and more effective measures is the delusion that everything is fine or soon will be -- seeing recovery just around the corner. This delusion appears to affect not just Xi but also many Wall Street analysts... More on this topic from me: https://lnkd.in/gDDvGdR2 And from Bloomberg: https://lnkd.in/ggGa4uv3

📈 Economic Insights: China's 2023 Q4 GDP Growth and Year-End Recap 🌏 The Chinese economy showcased resilience and challenges in Q4 of 2023, expanding by 5.2% YoY. While this marked an improvement from Q3's 4.9%, it fell slightly short of market forecasts at 5.3%. December's activity data unveiled a mixed picture: industrial production saw its most robust growth in almost two years, yet retail sales posted the smallest increase in three months. Additionally, the surveyed jobless rate edged up to a four-month high. For the entire year, China's economy grew by 5.2%, surpassing the official target of around 5.0%. This uptick from a 3.0% rise in 2022 can be attributed to support measures from Beijing and a low base comparison from the previous year. However, excluding the pandemic years through 2022, 2023 GDP growth represents the slowest pace since 1990. This underlines the impact of a prolonged property crisis, persistently weak consumption, and global turmoil. As we look ahead to 2024, all eyes are on Beijing, which is set to announce the GDP growth target at an annual parliamentary meeting in early March. The economic landscape remains dynamic, and navigating through challenges will require strategic planning and adaptability. #chinaeconomy #gdpgrowth #economicoutlook #globalbusiness #financenews #chinamarket #chinanews 📊🌐

China's economy is set to grow 5% this year, after a "strong" first quarter, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) said on Wednesday, upgrading its earlier forecast of 4.6% expansion though it expects slower growth in the years ahead. The IMF said it had revised up both its 2024 and 2025 GDP targets by 0.4 percentage points but warned that growth in China would slow to 3.3% by 2029 due to an ageing population and slower expansion in productivity. China's economy grew at a faster than expected 5.3% pace year-on-year in the first quarter, comfortably above analysts' forecast for a 4.6% gain in a Reuters poll and up from a 5.2% expansion in the previous quarter. A string of recent economic indicators for April including factory output, trade and consumer prices suggest the $18.6 trillion economy has successfully navigated some near-term downside risks, but China observers say the jury is still out on whether the bounce is sustainable. Domestic consumption remains soft and much of that is linked to fragile confidence amid a protracted property sector crisis that is widely seen as the single biggest stumbling block to a full-blown economic recovery. Source: Reuters News Agency #china #beijing #chineseeconomy #trade #growth #development #gdp

China's economic growth falls substantially short of expectations with its new GDP numbers. What does this mean geopolitically, and how might their economy continue to evolve in the quarters ahead? China's GDP growth has slowed to its weakest pace in five quarters, expanding by just 4.7% in the second quarter compared to the previous year. This decline points to faltering consumer spending despite an export boom, adding pressure on policymakers to step up support at this week's Third Plenum. President Xi Jinping’s strategy to boost growth through manufacturing and high-tech sectors faces geopolitical challenges. The disappointing economic data has led to calls for increased domestic spending, although significant reforms like household residency reform or a universal welfare system are unlikely, according to Duncan Wrigley, chief China economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics. Retail sales rose at their slowest monthly pace since December 2022, with household consumption remaining particularly weak. Raymond Yeung, chief economist for greater China at Australia & New Zealand Banking Group, highlighted, “Household consumption remains very weak. The ‘replacement’ schemes fail to lift spending. With employers slashing salaries and high youth unemployment, households will still be cautious going forward.” Amid these challenges, the People’s Bank of China has held its benchmark rate steady to mitigate concerns about capital flight and defend the yuan. Goldman has adjusted its China GDP growth forecast to 4.9% from 5% for the year, still aligning with the annual goal of around 5%. Jacqueline Rong, chief China economist at BNP Paribas, suggests that authorities may ramp up fiscal spending and consider rate cuts in August following the Politburo meeting later this month. As China navigates these economic headwinds, the focus will likely remain on promoting high-tech and manufacturing sectors while addressing domestic demand issues and ensuring financial stability. The Third Plenum and upcoming Politburo meeting will contribute to shaping the country's economic trajectory in the near term. #china #growth #geopolitics https://lnkd.in/eAkA5Mrz

China economic data brief here: https://lnkd.in/eYpKA9gQ China's Q2 2024 economic data reveals a continuing but slower-than-expected recovery, with the supply side outperforming demand. While manufacturing and services sectors show growth, they remain dependent on public investment. The persistent weakness in the real estate sector and tepid financial conditions suggest that ongoing government stimulus will be crucial to prevent economic stumbling, especially as global economic conditions weaken. #china #economy

In terms of stubbonly high western interest rates the Chinese economy is seeing deflation on a continuing basis - is this good news for the west? China's consumer prices fell at their steepest pace in more than 14 years to 0.8% in January from a year earlier, after a 0.3% drop in December while producer prices also dropped. Believe it or not deflation is much worse for an economy to handle than inflation as to instill confidence in consumers and producers to increase pricing is harder than cooling growth by simply restricting borrowing through rate rises. China will struggle to increase manufacturing and exports in the longer term and will need to restructure its own markets to allow more services and access otherwise the economic engine will stall. It doesn’t help that it’s property development sector is in full blown meltdown and that impacts, due to the consumer property ownership wealth, the ability to create chinese consumer confidence and growth. Therefore, China may take 40+ years to resurface from a deflation nation unless the government injects huge stimulus packages to entice consumers to spend today rather than wait until tomorrow when the value of goods will be much less! The western worlds plan for restraining the Chinese tiger seems to be having a major impact and decoupling between the east and west economies will still continue over the next few years but then I predict a complete reverse and a more sensible working relationship will appear leading to a more stable and less warring world! https://lnkd.in/ezmZcC4B

China's economy exceeded expectations in the first quarter, growing by 5.3% compared to the same period last year, outpacing economist forecasts of 4.6%. Additionally, on a quarter-on-quarter basis, GDP expanded by 1.6%, surpassing both Reuters poll expectations and the previous quarter's growth. The robust growth, driven by factors including external demand and export volume, aligns with Beijing's 2024 growth target of around 5%, likely reinforcing the government's current policy stance. Please contact us if your company needs to attract financial resources to implement investment projects by email: info@sgroup-pro.com. #sgroup, #investments, #innovation, #technology, #creativity, #future, #economy, #markets https://lnkd.in/dAtP2Y6F

The official data showed that China's economy expanded 4.7% in the second quarter from a year ago, lower than the 5.3% seen in the previous quarter and missing expectations for a 5.1% growth. https://lnkd.in/g2tis7eq #ChinaGDP #ChinaDomesticmarket #China #domesticmarket #realestate

There is a big disconnect between the image of the Chinese economy portrayed by the media and the underlying data. As we start the year, we review key pieces of data from both China and the US. In summary, while the data for China has not been as good as the market may have liked, it was better than what the media would have had us believe. In this article, our Senior Advisor Say Boon Lim discusses about the China marco data for 2023, which are very decent growth figures by any international comparison, and China achieved these with a smaller fiscal deficit than the US and while bearing the burden of rebalancing growth away from dependence on the property sector.  #china #ashares #growth #value #neweconomy #bedrockeconomy #starboard

China's GDP growth dips: Where is its economy headed? China's GDP growth in the second quarter was 4.7%, below the expected 5.1%. The slowdown raises concerns about economic stability and calls for measures to stimulate growth. IMF projects a gradual slowdown in growth due to various factors including ageing population and property sector crisis. Policy meeting aims to outline strategies for promoting advanced manufacturing and boosting domestic consumption. Structural reforms are suggested to enhance productivity and address economic imbalances. The Economist The Economic Times Business Development CNBC-TV18CNBC-e #ChinaEconomy #GDPDecline #EconomicDownturn #ChinaGDP #EconomicOutlook #GlobalEconomy #MarketTrends #FinancialNews #TradeWarImpact #EconomicPolicy