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EDA company Silvaco, $SILV, is pricing their IPO this Wednesday. Here’s our quick analysis.   The EDA market is dominated by Cadence, Synopsys and Siemens Mentor with ~75% of the market. The remainder of the market is taken up smaller vendors such as SILV with revenue of only $54mn. This is less than 1% of Synopsys’s scale!   SILV is focused on TCAD for the Power, Display, and Memory markets. TCAD tools simulate device behaviour to validate performance before manufacturing. The main growth driver of EDA spend is the rising complexity of chip designs and this is especially seen in leading edge logic. However, in Silvaco’s key markets of power and display, it is less clear that R&D intensity is rising as much. Cadence and Synopsys are behemoths, but they still outgrew Silvaco! Cadence and Synopsys have more torque to the structural tailwinds of rising complexity than Silvaco does.   SILV is using their simulation capability to expand into a new area: creating fab “digital twins”. This help wafer fab customers simulate and improve production processes to drive down costs and increase yields. Micron is the initial customer and they’ve also invested $5mn into SILV in April. This is a new opportunity for SILV but this space has already been attacked by others. TSMC has their own internal solution. Samsung is using startup minds.ai. The challenging part of this is the key input is the fab’s own data. This is highly sensitive so there needs to be a lot of trust involved and to build the software SILV will need to have a custom solution for each customer. argins won’t be as attractive compared to selling off the shelf software modules.   SILV is sub-scale and it is not clear they should be a standalone company. SILV was loss-making in 2021 and 2022, and barely become EBIT profitable in 2023 with a 2% margin. Gross profit is spent on R&D and SG&A. More dollars are directed to SG&A than R&D where investment leads to more direct business outcomes. Since 2021, SILV’s R&D spend is actually down (!) with S&M and G&A expenses up. This is due to IPO costs and R&D was cut to finance this. R&D investment is key for an EDA business to stay competitive and grow. Both CDNS and SNPS continue to grow their R&D investment while also spending more than SILV does as a % of sales. This shows just how hard it is for the small EDA players to try to close the gap with the giants. How does SILV’s valuation compare to SNPS and CDNS? SNPS and CDNS both have better growth outlooks, stronger industry positions, and are more profitable. However, SILV is launching at a more expensive valuation. SILV’s margins are still low relative to management’s target of 25% non-GAAP operating margin so it may be too harsh to judge SILV on earnings multiples presently.  SILV is cheaper on sales multiples, so the upside investors are playing for is if they can get close to SNPS and CDNS levels of profitability. Of course, that’s a big if and CDNS and SNPS are also far superior in terms of quality.

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Garnik G.

Principal Engineer at Synopsys

5mo

Silvaco SmartSpice was first spice simulator I used couple decades ago, many designs verified with it.

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