Simon Serfaty’s Post

Historic day in the United States with President Biden announcing he will not seek re-election. Probably seems like old hat in other parts of the world like the UK and France who just went through their own changes in government. Now, while his comment of "I will speak to the Nation later this week...." is a little weird (not today when all eyes are on you? Little more important than isolating from Covid, no?), that isn't a focus. The focus should be on who replaces him on the ballot and people in charge better be thinking creatively of who should be leading the Democratic ticket. Michelle Obama could win, but she has zero interest in the office. VP Harris probably can't win. Hilary Clinton definitely can't win. Whitmer doesn't have the name recognition from voters and Newsome is likely too well known to win (California well known to have so many problems under his leadership - some real and some exaggerated). So, who can it be? The thought got me pacing a little this afternoon as this has major implications for the stock market and the banking sector. So much so that my dog looked at me and said "Hey Mr. Politics, what about The Rock or Matthew Mcconaughey? Celebrity sells and we know from Trump's term that you don't have to know anything about anything in order to be President." While I can't get on board with this type of thinking, it sure is creative. And that seems to be what is needed, otherwise the Trump trade will just continue on unabated. Hello U.S. banks...... #doyourwork #askhardquestions #dontbeabagholder https://lnkd.in/g9fxaj7G

Biden steps down, giving Democrats a second chance. They must balance speed, unity, and legitimacy to choose the best candidate for 2024. 💡 Biden's Decision: Joe Biden decided not to seek re-election, opening the door for a new Democratic candidate. 💡 Immediate Challenges: The party needs to quickly find a strong candidate while maintaining unity. 💡 Kamala Harris: Some party leaders endorse VP Kamala Harris, but concerns about her strength as a candidate remain. 💡 Open Competition: A genuine race could enhance party legitimacy and enthusiasm among supporters. 💡 Potential Candidates: Several prominent figures, including governors and senators, are considered strong contenders. 💡 Strategic Balance: Democrats must balance speed, unity, and legitimacy to avoid past mistakes and maximize their chances in the 2024 election.

#StatecraftInTheNews: Reports reveal that President Joe Biden is "soul-searching" about dropping his reelection campaign amid growing Democratic revolt and his recent COVID-19 diagnosis. Meanwhile, Donald Trump is preparing to accept the GOP nomination with a reflective speech tonight. Biden, 81, is facing increasing pressure from party heavyweights, including Nancy Pelosi, urging him to step aside to prevent a landslide defeat. Meanwhile, Trump, 78, is enjoying adulation at the GOP National Convention in Milwaukee after surviving an assassination attempt. His acceptance speech at 10 p.m. ET will outline his vision for a second term. Opinion polls show Biden trailing in key states, while Trump’s campaign eyes competitiveness in traditionally Democratic-leaning states like Minnesota and Virginia. Calls for Biden to drop out have grown since his debate performance against Trump. Former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and other top Democrats have voiced concerns about his viability. Former President Barack Obama has also reportedly suggested Biden reconsider his candidacy. Trump’s acceptance speech will focus on unity following his near-death experience. The GOP Convention showcases broad support for Trump, with endorsements from former rivals. Despite the show of unity, notable Republican critics of Trump, including George W. Bush and Mitt Romney, are absent from the convention. Join our WhatsApp channel for exclusive updates. Don't miss out—click the link below to join now! https://lnkd.in/gHG96V9M

24 hours is an eternity in politics. And that was exactly what happened over the weekend. Just on Saturday, US media were reporting that incumbent President Joe Biden will fight tooth and nail to demonstrate why he is the Democrats' best chance of defeating the Trump train, that had gained strength as well as momentum after his fist-pumping heroics in the wake of the assassination attempt on his life. A day later, Mr Biden bowed out of the re-election bid and endorsed his Veep Kamala Harris instead. Tributes are now pouring in for Mr Biden and rightly so. He saw the gathering storm and knew his floundering re-election campaign was losing steam. His closest aides have also expressed their concerns about not only him losing the White House, but likely Congress too, if he continues to lead the Democrats, whose younger and more left-leaning voting base grew increasingly disenchanted and disillusioned with the party's leadership, even though Senator Bernie Sanders kept talking up Mr Biden. He heard and heeded the ground, and stood aside for the good of his party, his country. Even before Mr Trump's assassination attempt, I felt the writing was on the wall for Mr Biden, when the Democrats' mega donor cum fundraiser - Hollywood bigwig George Clooney - wrote an op-ed asking Mr Biden to step down. It was a most damning and incriminating article, as Mr Clooney wrote of his affection and admiration for Mr Biden, using past tense of who Mr Biden was, not is. It also brought to the fore, not just for the political insiders and elites about the insufficiency of Mr Biden's candidacy, but tore open the veil to the masses, how Mr Biden's health or condition had supposedly been deteriorating behind the scenes. And after the Republicans put on an impressive united front at their national convention in Milwaukee, Wisconsin - a critical swing state - the Democrats are now trying to do likewise, by rallying behind their newly anointed and appointed leader, Kamala Harris. Interestingly, Ms Harris is yet to have been blessed by party elders like PUSA Barack Obama and ex-House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, though that could be an act of deference to Mr Biden, to celebrate him for his sacrifice today, and deal with future challenges ahead, tomorrow. Whatever the case, purely from the confines of my narrow newsroom worldview, I want to thank Mr Biden for 4 solid, drama-free years of leadership during his term in office. He has had to oversee a host of craziness during the past 4 years, and he did so, out of a sense of duty and decency, without ever asking for much in return. That is something that is both timeless and ageless, for which all generations can learn from. https://lnkd.in/gX9G4E92

Former President Donald Trump emerged triumphant in the Nevada Republican caucuses, solidifying his position as a frontrunner in the party's primary race. However, the absence of a direct showdown between Trump and potential rival Nikki Haley underscored the complexities of the electoral process in the southwestern state. Trump's resounding win in the Nevada caucuses signals his enduring influence within the Republican Party, reaffirming his status as a dominant force in conservative politics. With his unapologetic brand of populism and fervent base of supporters, Trump's victory sets the stage for a contentious battle for the party's nomination in the upcoming presidential election. As Trump basks in the glow of victory, the road ahead is fraught with challenges and uncertainties. The looming specter of a divided GOP, exacerbated by internal divisions and ideological rifts, poses a formidable obstacle to Trump's ambitions of reclaiming the presidency. Moreover, the broader geopolitical landscape presents a myriad of complex challenges that demand astute leadership and strategic vision. Read More: https://lnkd.in/dsUMei9e Story by Ozal Saeed #DonaldTrump #NevadaCaucusTriumph #GOPChallenge #2024Election #ConservativePolitics

Knowing a thing or two about radical political change. Lenin said it best when he said “there are weeks where decades happen”. The second least likely scenario on my bingo card was that Joe Biden would resign lightly. The least likely scenario was that the transition in turn to a new candidate would be seamless. Biden himself was originally a compromise candidate, someone who the left wing of the Democratic party could tolerate but could also win the centre. I did not think the left wing of the democratic party would tolerate a seamless transition to a new moderate candidate. I expected at the least an extremely tense convention in Chicago. But I was very wrong, so wrong that I have to completely recalibrate. There are structural reasons why a Harris win is more likely than a Trump win: 1) Age It was introduced into the zeitgeist by Trump, it now applies to Trump. All he has to do is slip up once and all of Biden’s baggage will stick to him. 2) Women’s vote Trump is topped out with white men. But he cannot afford to lose any ground with suburban women. That’s what cost him 2020. All he has to do is go too far in a debate with Harris one time. 3) African-American vote The increasingly desperate attempts to strip Harris of her African-American identity is a rearguard action unlikely to succeed. 4) Swing state economics As shown in The Economist graph below, swing state economies are more robust than the national average. An economic narrative will be less potent there than elsewhere. 5) Vance vs Shapiro (probably) Trump has Ohio, he was always going to have Ohio. Vance was a policy error likely driven by overconfidence. If Harris selects Shapiro he is a major asset in Pennsylvania, a critical path state for Trump. Despite his excellent handling of an assassination attempt, Donald Trump is a politically weak candidate: 1) Trump barely won 2016 and lost the popular vote 2) Trump was an incumbent president who lost re-election in 2020 3) Despite Trump’s backing candidates the Democrats retained the Senate in the 2022 mid-terms Trump has been running down hill now for almost a decade. And his luck may be running out. I am optimistic this is the last time I will need to so dramatically recalibrate before November and can now just put this topic away. #uselection #US #politics

🇺🇸🗳️🇺🇸🗳️🇺🇸 ❌ Biden has to go before he forgets he is president. In recent times, there has been mounting concern over the fitness of President Joe Biden to lead the nation effectively. These concerns stem primarily from his apparent memory problems, which have become increasingly evident. Firstly, the issue of President Biden's memory problems cannot be ignored. From forgetting crucial details during press conferences to struggling to articulate his thoughts, there are legitimate concerns about his ability to fulfill the duties of the presidency. The recent special report recommending no charges against President Biden has reignited debates about political bias towards Trump. While the scale and context of these investigations differ, it is essential to acknowledge the need for fairness and impartiality in all matters of justice, irrespective of political affiliation. Moreover, the comparison between Democrats' reactions to the Biden investigation and Trump supporters' responses to investigations against the former president are no different. Naming something bias and trying to discredit it because it’s not the outcome you want is never right. President Biden's press conference to address these concerns only served to underscore the seriousness of the issue. It is evident that his struggles with memory and coherence are not isolated incidents but represent a significant challenge to effective leadership. However, amidst these challenges lies an opportunity for the Democratic Party to course-correct. If they are to maintain their credibility and effectively challenge the opposition, they must be willing to confront uncomfortable truths and prioritise the greater good over individual interests. This moment presents a crucial juncture for American democracy and the Democratic Party. The decision to address President Biden's fitness for office and potentially nominate a more moderate and capable candidate could change the outcome of the election drastically from what looks like a trump win. But will they seize this moment to create an election winning campaign around a sensible candidate or will they double down to protect Biden? #us #uselection #biden #trump #Election

🇺🇸🗳️“If that June debate was a five-alarm fire for Democrats that eventually forced Biden from the race, after Tuesday’s debate between Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris, Trump’s proponents should probably check the temperature in their own house. What happened — and what could it mean going forward? Here are 5 takeaways: 1. This debate wasn’t close… 2. The spotlight should now be on Trump’s incoherence and general lack of any serious grasp on policy… 3. Trump was on the defensive and evasive, even on issues that should benefit him — and didn’t land much, if anything, that stuck… 4. The moderators fact-checked unlike in the previous debate.. 5. Harris has done everything right — and could still lose….”👇🏾

Do not freak out if anyone watched the debate yesterday and was disappointed in Biden's performance. It may hurt the morale of his campaign and create doubts about his abilities to govern, but it will not impact the results in November. People will forget his performance tonight because the election is four months away. It is better to make mistakes now and learn from them than make it closer to the election. Also, debates do not matter because Al Gore, John Kerry, Hillary Clinton, and Dr. Oz did well in the debates but lost the election to their opponents. It is a horrible idea for those wanting to replace Biden because it would impact voters' confidence in the party and campaign morale. Please remember the 1968 election between Herbert Humphrey and Richard Nixon; Nixon crushed Humphrey because Humphrey replaced the incumbent President Lyndon Johnson. There is nothing more powerful than an incumbent with significant legislative accomplishments. There is nothing stronger than incumbency and running as an underdog. Do not listen to pundits and Democratic insiders. He must spend the last four months campaigning and boosting his ground game in Pennsylvania, Georgia, North Carolina, Nevada, Wisconsin, Michigan, and Arizona. He needs to talk about his accomplishments in office and his plans for his second term instead of making it about Trump. Finally, he can generate positive press coverage by working with Congress to pass bipartisan legislation that improves the quality of life of Americans. Biden and Democrats can still win in November if people come out and vote to protect our democracy and freedoms. #Vote2024 #Democracy

The Right Choice To Unite The Dems by Eugene Robinson President Biden did his part, and now Democrats must do theirs: Unite behind a new ticket headed by Vice President Harris and then defeat Donald Trump soundly in November. Quitting his bid for reelection was the right choice for his party and his nation. Biden’s endorsement of Harris to replace him is not the final word — he has no power to anoint her — but that, too, is the best and most promising way forward. The idea of an “open process” or a “contested convention” in which Harris competes against other contenders to win the nomination sounds like something Hollywood might script, but I don’t see how that happens in the real world. Convention delegates will have to vote, of course, and other names might be proposed. But I believe the odds of anyone else being the nominee are somewhere between astronomical and ain’t-gonna-happen. For one thing, all but a handful of those nearly 4,000 delegates are pledged to Biden — or were, until he dropped out. They enter this uncharted political wilderness as Biden people. The fact that Biden immediately gave Harris his full backing will surely be a North Star for many seeking guidance. I know that some Democrats believe there are other potential candidates who could do better against Trump: Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, for example, or Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro, or Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear. But I disagree. None of the others being mentioned has fought and won a national campaign. None has been subjected to the X-Ray-level vetting that Harris has endured. And why would any of those rising stars even run? What would they gain by putting themselves out there now, not a month before the convention, in opposition to such power brokers as Bill and Hillary Clinton, who have already called for party unity behind Harris? They have promising futures to think about. Finally, look at the Democratic Party’s base — the voters who have to turn out in November if Democrats are to beat Trump, hold the Senate and win the House. Members of the Congressional Black Caucus have been among the most ardent advocates of Biden staying in the race. They have made it clear that if the president did withdraw, they and their constituents would have no patience with an effort by the party to “pass over” the first African American vice president in favor of some untested White governor. No Democrat can win the three “blue wall” swing states — Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania — without racking up huge vote margins in the Milwaukee, Detroit, Philadelphia and Pittsburgh metropolitan areas. If Black voters stay home on Election Day, Democrats lose. It is true that Democrats were given a chance to choose Harris in the 2020 cycle, and she didn’t even make it to the Iowa caucuses. But that was then. This year, she has been the Biden-Harris campaign’s most powerful and effective voice on such key issues as abortion and gun safety. ©️Washington Post 2024