Josh Moreton’s Post

Quick Reaction to #presidentialelection2024 Trump was as Trump is - boastful, exaggerating, falsifying events, lying and vengeful. Fact checked that he lied 26 times! Biden was worse than I feared, ageing process has caught up with him - weak, bumbling, sometimes hard to understand what he was saying, at times incoherent, few times lost his train of thought and crucially found it difficult to rebutt Trump’s numerous lies. He tried hard at times to deal with Trump’s lies etc and had a lot of facts at his fingertips but he just failed to deliver effectively and cut through. Democrats party decision makers and especially his wife need to think hard whether he should call it a day. I accept there is no easy way forward. Really is a big judgement call. Essentially is Biden mentally and physically strong enough to last the rigorous demands of another 6 months of campaigning. Plus there is scheduled another debate in September, unless Biden says no. Bottom line, given how he looked and performed last night, will the voters think he can stop Trump and if they do can he even last another 4 years as President. Reckon I know the answer to that last bit.

𝑫𝒐𝒏𝒂𝒍𝒅 𝑻𝒓𝒖𝒎𝒑 𝑹𝒆𝒂𝒄𝒕𝒔 𝒕𝒐 𝑩𝒊𝒅𝒆𝒏 𝑫𝒓𝒐𝒑𝒑𝒊𝒏𝒈 𝑶𝒖𝒕 𝒐𝒇 2024 𝑹𝒂𝒄𝒆 𝗙𝗮𝗿𝗮𝗴𝗲'𝘀 𝗣𝗿𝗲𝗱𝗶𝗰𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻: 𝗧𝗿𝘂𝗺𝗽 𝗪𝗶𝗹𝗹 𝗪𝗶𝗻 𝙁𝙖𝙧𝙖𝙜𝙚'𝙨 𝘾𝙤𝙣𝙛𝙞𝙙𝙚𝙣𝙘𝙚 𝙞𝙣 𝙖 𝙏𝙧𝙪𝙢𝙥 𝙑𝙞𝙘𝙩𝙤𝙧𝙮 Nigel Farage, leader of the right-wing and populist Reform Party in the United Kingdom, commented on Biden's withdrawal, stating that it doesn't matter who the Democrats choose; he believes Trump will win the election. "I predicted this would happen in September 2023. No matter who they choose, Trump will win in November," Farage posted on X. 𝗧𝗿𝘂𝗺𝗽'𝘀 𝗥𝗲𝘀𝗽𝗼𝗻𝘀𝗲 𝘁𝗼 𝗕𝗶𝗱𝗲𝗻'𝘀 𝗪𝗶𝘁𝗵𝗱𝗿𝗮𝘄𝗮𝗹 Former President Donald Trump quickly responded to President Joe Biden's decision to exit the 2024 election, asserting that his former rival was "never fit to run." In a statement on Truth Social, Trump wrote, "Crooked Joe Biden was never fit to run for President, and he certainly isn't fit to serve - never was!" 𝗖𝗿𝗶𝘁𝗶𝗰𝗶𝘀𝗺𝘀 𝗼𝗳 𝗕𝗶𝗱𝗲𝗻'𝘀 𝗖𝗮𝗽𝗮𝗯𝗶𝗹𝗶𝘁𝘆 Trump continued, "Everyone around him, including his Doctor and the Media, knew that he wasn’t capable of being President, and he wasn’t." Trump then touched on his usual campaign themes, criticizing Biden over the border situation and adding, "We will suffer greatly because of his presidency, but we will fix the damage he has done very quickly. MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN!" 𝗙𝘂𝗻𝗱𝗿𝗮𝗶𝘀𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗣𝘂𝘀𝗵 Following Biden's announcement, Trump’s campaign launched a new fundraising effort. In their appeal, they highlighted Biden's exit, describing it as quitting "in complete disgrace." #DonaldTrump #JoeBiden #US #Election #USelection #UK #Britan #NigelFarage #Bidenwithdrawal #Trumpreaction #MAGA #news #viral

THIS should tell us all something. Trump is a danger to ALL. Those who were on the INSIDE saw this. Rarely can we rise as ONE Nation. We must vote for President Biden. Not voting for Trump is not enough. We face dangerous and pivotal times. Frankly, I can think of no one better than Joe Biden at this moment in our history. Only Biden has managed to get Republicans to do ANYTHING. And now that seems done with events in the House. Only Democrats are willing to act. What's needed? 1) Biden re-elected 2) Democrats take House 3) Democrats keep the Senate with enough votes to alter the filibuster. THIS is the only road forward. Together WE Can.

President Joe Biden announced yesterday that he is dropping out of the presidential race and will not seek the Democratic nomination for president. The last time a sitting president declined to seek re-election was Lyndon Johnson in 1968. However, this move comes with little surprise to those who have been paying attention to the odds market. In fact, the market “priced in” this decision shortly after Biden’s shaky debate performance with former President Donald Trump just over a month ago. The data series in this #chartoftheweek by James Torgerson tracks the implied probabilities available on the PredictIt website. For most of 2024, odds for Biden or Trump to win the election fluctuated between ~40–55%. Trump gained momentum leading up to the debate as questions surrounding Biden’s capacity to serve another term swirled. Biden’s disastrous performance accelerated Trump’s chances and sent the president’s odds of winning the election into a freefall. Read ”Say It Ain't So, Joe!“ in full here: https://bit.ly/AintSoJoe

5 weeks ago today Joe Biden and Donald Trump were preparing to debate each other in Atlanta. In the 35 days since then the following things happened: June 27: Biden looked and sounded approximately 110 years old at the debate and deflated Democratic hopes of defeating Trump in November. June 28: Calls from Democrats for Biden to drop out of the race started the day after the debate and got progressively louder over the next 3 weeks. July 13: Trump survived an assassination attempt where he was shot in the ear. July 15: Trump selected JD Vance as his Vice-Presidential pick at the Republican National Convention. July 21: After initially rejecting calls to drop out of the race, Joe Biden stepped down as the Democratic nominee. July 22: Kamala Harris secured the support of enough Democratic delegates to become the Democratic nominee for President. In prediction markets (PredictIt), Trump’s odds of winning the election peaked in the wake of the assassination attempt at 69% on July 15th. Yesterday, Trump’s odds of winning fell below 50%. Easily the craziest month of U.S. political news in my lifetime.

After Biden's poor showing in yesterday's Presidential candidate debate on CNN, his odds of being the next President have tumbled in election markets to around 1 chance in 5. The odds on a Trump win increased a few points, from 60% before the debate to 63% after it - the initial jump around the time of the debate was as high as 9 points but then subsided. The biggest shift was in the collective chance of another Democratic candidate winning the Presidency. Odds on Gavin Newsom, the Governor of California, increased from 2% to as high as 9% around the time of the debate. Odds also increased for Michelle Obama and Kamala Harris, each of whom reached 5% at one point. Collectively, the odds on non-Biden Democratic candidates are almost as high as those on the President himself. In a highly partisan and divided nation, where the race should be close, this almost couldn't be worse for Biden. Speculation on social media of a "hot swap" is running high, but the Democratic establishment is not known for making rash moves. So unless Biden can be convinced to withdraw - and you can be sure there will be senior Democrats trying to persuade him to do so - things are looking bleak for Democrats and good for Republicans. #USelection #USPresident

#StatecraftInTheNews: Reports reveal that President Joe Biden is "soul-searching" about dropping his reelection campaign amid growing Democratic revolt and his recent COVID-19 diagnosis. Meanwhile, Donald Trump is preparing to accept the GOP nomination with a reflective speech tonight. Biden, 81, is facing increasing pressure from party heavyweights, including Nancy Pelosi, urging him to step aside to prevent a landslide defeat. Meanwhile, Trump, 78, is enjoying adulation at the GOP National Convention in Milwaukee after surviving an assassination attempt. His acceptance speech at 10 p.m. ET will outline his vision for a second term. Opinion polls show Biden trailing in key states, while Trump’s campaign eyes competitiveness in traditionally Democratic-leaning states like Minnesota and Virginia. Calls for Biden to drop out have grown since his debate performance against Trump. Former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and other top Democrats have voiced concerns about his viability. Former President Barack Obama has also reportedly suggested Biden reconsider his candidacy. Trump’s acceptance speech will focus on unity following his near-death experience. The GOP Convention showcases broad support for Trump, with endorsements from former rivals. Despite the show of unity, notable Republican critics of Trump, including George W. Bush and Mitt Romney, are absent from the convention. Join our WhatsApp channel for exclusive updates. Don't miss out—click the link below to join now! https://lnkd.in/gHG96V9M

MY THOUGHTS: Joe Biden is a good and honorable statesman who has served our country well. He has pride, but he needs to be practical. The world cannot afford to have TRUMP back. Trump's 2025 Federalist Society plan and the acolytes he has lined up for many offices - to do whatever he tells them to do - are downright scary. He has already told us how disastrous his Presidency would be for our Democracy. In addition, Trump's Supreme Court has made many anti-democratic and insane decisions, like a President can do criminal acts as President (e.g., order wiretapping of opponents) and not be held criminally accountable. Biden should withdraw as the candidate and serve out his term with dignity to have the best chance of defeating Trump. The only option is for Vice President Harris to be the Presidential candidate. The VP must be well-spoken and help bring in at least one of the swing states. My recommendation is PA's Governor Shapiro. He is well-liked and has the potential to make a significant impact. There are a few other possibilities—governors and senators: Beshear (Kentucky), Evers (Wisconsin), and Inslee (Washington). It cannot be another woman or African American. Only a few possible Senators( cannot be anyone up for re-election), possibly Bennet and Hickenlooper (Colorado) or Mark Kelly (Arizona) - all quality people. God, please have Joe (& Jill) Biden make the right decision - soon.

Irrespective of Nikki Haley’s performance in New Hampshire on Tuesday – lose, tie, or even win – Trump is his party’s likely nominee, and the Davos crowd is right to be concerned. But it is overreacting when it seems to anticipate his election in November, which I find possible (say, 40%) but still improbable. Arguably, Biden should have stepped down as a one-term president, and his age makes of his running mate, Harris, a co-candidate à la Roosevelt in November 1944. But trust the voters in the fall as they absorb the madness of the Trump candidacy and assess the consequences of a second Trump term. Time instead to debate three related questions. Will Biden be able to govern as Trump denies his legitimacy with another January 6 in 2025, but en pire? Will the Republican leadership at last openly reject Trump’s version of MAGA once and for all on Day One? And what can be expected of a Harris co-presidency? The year 2024 has already been a long year which started early – on January 6, 2021; February 24, 2022; and October 7, 2023 – but so much unfinished business, it will linger dangerously past the November election and that, too, demands early reflection.