StoneX Group Inc.’s Post

💡 Let`s see and compare the info from tomorrow`s WASDE data.

Each degree Celsius increase in global mean temper- ature is estimated to reduce the global yield of wheat by 6.0%, rice (Oryza sativum) by 3.2%, maize (Zea mays) by 7.4%, and soybean (Glycine max) by 3.1% #climatechange #heatstress #needasolution

💡 The question, however, is what will happen next? The global picture is bullish for #wheat, bearish for #oilseeds and neutral for #corn. Based on WASDE data, these would be the opening and closing stocks for the main 3 crops. The data is indicative because some crops are recently sown and others are not even in the ground yet, looking at both hemispheres. 🌎 ⤵ But stepping on it, we can still conclude that there is no reason to see serious drops in wheat #prices, since we expect total production relative to consumption of only about minus 4 million tons. Also important is the fact that the main decline comes from Russia and Ukraine, respectively, due to bad weather conditions, and in Ukraine, less wheat is planted at the expense of oil crops. Meanwhile, "Russian South is getting lots of rain at last.. the problem is that wheat has passed its grain-filling stage already -> no help to plants, potential problems with quality and perhaps even additional losses." as Andrey Sizov concludes in todays post. The statement speaks for itself about possible wheat prices, specially for milling wheat. It is not by chance that we observe #soy, which is the real exchange product for analysis in oilseed crops with a significant volume in the world. 5% lower consumption compared to global production forecast at this stage indicates supply ahead of demand, which should push prices down in the long term.

In a recent analysis by @sentimentrader titled "Its time to keep an eye on soybeans", the Soybeans Seasonality indicator is used to analyze historical trends and patterns in the soybean market. Explore further: https://lnkd.in/g2WD2wcc

ATI Weekly Soybean Market Update 01.17.24 This week we highlight weather conditions in Brazil where they are harvesting beans in the north, but the south is still in the vegetative pod-set, pod-fill stage. We also take an updated look at export business from the U.S. We wrap things up with a review of long-term trends in November soybean futures. https://lnkd.in/gkX2u8y4

Grain buyers should expected elevated vomitoxin levels coming in this year, maybe more going for feed wheat and less for food grade in the mid-Atlantic. Farmers can help reduce vom levels by increasing combine fan speeds to blow out light/shriveled grains. Drying will not reduce the toxin. Read more below. https://lnkd.in/e4rmKam9

🟢 Explore the Black Sea & Danube Oilseed Report, your go-to resource for in-depth insights into the oilseed market. This is a robust source of comprehensive market analysis, crop forecasts, and logistics reviews, empowering you to make informed decisions in oilseed trading. Reports provide analytics of the following sectors: 🔸 #Sunseed, Sunseed oil and Sunseed meal market 🔸 #Soybean, Soybean oil and Soybean meal market 🔸 #Rapeseed, Rapeseed oil, Rapeseed meal market 🔸 #Palm oil market 🔸 Review about #Linseed and HOS (high oleic sunseed) 🔸 Products of deep processing of oilseeds Market coverage: 🔸 UkrAgroConsult headlines 🔸 Topics of the week with expert opinions 🔸 #Market trends and short- and long-term forecast 🔸 Oilseeds, oils meal prices, FOB, EXW 🔸 Oilseeds, oils meal market review 🔸 #Crop forecast 🔸 #Logistics review 🔸 Foreign economic activity 🔸 Fieldwork & crop conditions 🔸 Company news. Key market players performance. M&A 🔸 S&D balances Get a Sample Report and experience all the benefits for your business 👉 https://lnkd.in/g_rJYpUd #UkrAgroConsult #BlackSea #Danube #Agriculture

Stay up to date with an ever-changing industry, learn about our price data and 𝗺𝗮𝗸𝗲 𝗯𝗲𝘁𝘁𝗲𝗿 𝗳𝗼𝗿𝗲𝗰𝗮𝘀𝘁𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗰𝗮𝗹𝗰𝘂𝗹𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻𝘀 today. Find out how: https://okt.to/ElqOcf  Some 𝗸𝗲𝘆 𝗺𝗼𝘃𝗲𝗺𝗲𝗻𝘁𝘀 𝗶𝗻 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗴𝗹𝗼𝗯𝗮𝗹 𝗮𝗴𝗿𝗶𝗰𝘂𝗹𝘁𝘂𝗿𝗲 𝗺𝗮𝗿𝗸𝗲𝘁 over the last week include China snapping up large volumes of soybeans while US wheat prices dipped as harvest accelerated.  𝘄𝗵𝗲𝗮𝘁: Prices decline amid rapid US harvest and reduced concerns in Russia 𝗰𝗼𝗿𝗻: South Korea's feed sector dominates trading, pushing prices up  𝘀𝗼𝘆𝗯𝗲𝗮𝗻𝘀: Active week with significant Brazilian cargoes snapped up by Chinese crushers #FastmarketsAgriculture #wheat #corn #soybean

🌱 Maximizing Soybean Profits at Harvest Time! 🌱 As soybean harvest season arrives, it’s crucial to consider the best pricing strategies for maximizing returns. From cash sales to storage and future contracts, there are various alternatives that can help farmers navigate market risks while securing better prices. Dive into today's article from Southern Ag Today by Aaron Smith to explore practical options that align with your goals and risk tolerance. https://lnkd.in/gnKMCbXf

While we are still at the start of the 2024/25 global grains and oilseed production season, with the southern hemisphere yet to plant in about two months, the International Grains Council (IGC) forecasts a decent harvest. For example, in their latest update, the IGC placed the 2024/25 global grains and oilseed production forecast at 2,3 billion tonnes, up mildly from the previous season. The stocks are expected to be healthy, around 582 million tonnes, though having declined somewhat from the 2023/24 season because of the expected increase in the industrial use of grains. A closer look at the figures shows that the IGC forecasts a 1% year-on-year increase in the 2024/25 global rice production to 528 million tonnes. This is based on an anticipated large crop in all the major rice-producing regions, such as India, Vietnam, Thailand, the US, China, Pakistan, Indonesia, Bangladesh and the Philippines. Subsequently, the stocks could also increase by 1% to 175 million tonnes. The production prospects for 2024/25 global soybeans are also positive, estimated at 415 million tonnes, up by 6% year-on-year. This is based on the expected large harvest in the US, Brazil, Argentina, India, and Paraguay. Still, given that nearly half of the production is by the southern hemisphere producers, specifically South America, we view these data as tentative until the start of the season in the region in about two months. Assuming the current estimates materialise, the 2024/25 global soybean stocks would lift by 16% year-on-year to 79 million tonnes. Such an increase in the harvest and supplies would add downward pressure on worldwide soybean prices, which is favourable for the animal feed industry. A less optimistic view is in the major grains such as wheat and maize, though their supplies will still remain at levels above average. For example, the IGC forecasts the 2024/25 global wheat production at 793 million tonnes, slightly lower than the 2023/24 season's crop of 804 million tonnes. This is due to the expected production declines in the EU, UK, Ukraine and Russia. These overly wet weather conditions in these countries during the season are the reason for the anticipated poor yields. With food and industrial use of wheat expected to remain strong, the IGC placed the 2024/25 global wheat stocks at 261 million tonnes, down 3% year-on-year. Be that as it may, international wheat prices have not reacted to these expectations and have remained on a moderating path in recent weeks, which is a welcome development from a consumer perspective. READ MORE HERE: https://lnkd.in/d5fn-ayG