Diageo: The Hidden Gem in Your Drink Cabinet
What if I told you there’s a company behind some of the most iconic drinks in the world, quietly raking in profits while you enjoy your favorite cocktail? Meet Diageo. They own a 34% stake in Moët Hennessy and are the global king of premium drinks. Think Johnnie Walker, Smirnoff, Guinness, and Crown Royal. Impressive, right?
Now, here’s the kicker: Diageo’s magic lies in its unbeatable moat. Their brands have cult-like loyalty, making them nearly immune to competition. Ever tried launching a new whiskey brand? Good luck. The long maturation process creates sky-high entry barriers. Plus, in today’s world, people prefer sipping better, not more. This premiumization trend plays right into Diageo’s hands, giving them strong pricing power.
However, recent challenges have created an intriguing opportunity. The LatAm and Caribbean regions are suffering from excess inventory, and Diageo has misjudged demand, leading to a double-digit decline in topline revenue in these regions. The LatAm and Caribbean markets make up 10% of the company's total revenue. Additionally, the new CEO is fairly new and untested, and the CFO was let go due to poor financial forecasting, planning, and communication. Because of these reasons, the stock is trading at a compelling 17x PE NTM and has a free cash flow yield of ~5%.
But remember, this is a resilient business with secular demand from emerging markets, which make up 40% of the total topline. Diageo holds a mere 6% of the total beverage alcohol market—a market worth a staggering $962 billion globally. And guess what? Spirits, their forte, are growing twice as fast as beer and wine. With a 6.3% organic growth rate over the past six years and projections of 5-7% CAGR till 2027, they’re on a roll.
Diageo’s capital-light model means they churn out high returns on invested capital, scaling effortlessly.
In a nutshell, Diageo is not just surviving; they’re thriving. They’ve cracked the code on how to blend tradition with innovation, making them a force to be reckoned with in the beverage world. So, next time you sip that drink, remember the hidden gem making it all possible: Diageo.
RETIRED TEACHER MODERN LANGUAGES
3moGood luck Carol. You will smash it 👍❤️