Surprise Valley Resources, LLC’s Post

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After the Volcano Last week's post gave center stage to our team's conviction that an asset allocator's default condition should be to at least equal weight equities and noted that we are committed to underweighting them sparingly and fleetingly. That post's chart covered the sparingly; this one's addresses the fleetingly. It shows the compounded annual returns by day-count decile for the ten complete bull markets from October 10, 1966 through January 3, 2022. D1 shows the CAGR for the trading sessions comprising the first tenth of those bull markets and D10 shows the CAGR for the last tenth. It reveals that bull markets begin by being shot out of a cannon (74% CAGR) and then jog along at a decent clip (11%) before sprinting to the finish line (33%). Anyone who was disposed to head for the hills when the volcano first emitted a puff of smoke necessarily turned their back on some of the last decile's returns but the bigger drag on their performance likely came from being too far out of position to reap the explosive returns at the start of the next bull market.

Doug Peta, CFA, thanks for sharing this interesting analysis. I agree that it's important to remember, that time out of the market on average works against you. Time in the market will dominate timing the market for most investors. If you still want to try market timing, maximizing "time in the market" should, in my opinion, remain a key component of any risk management or TAA strategy. That's our approach.

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How does the copper industry meet the demand for clean energy? Achieving net zero emissions relies heavily on copper mining activities, which makes clean technologies more important. Join Tom Strombotne, a product applications specialist at 2 pm London | 3 pm CET Wednesday 25th October. He will be discussing: 🔔 Mining industry challenges  🔔 Mineral beneficiation  🔔 Analyzer benefits - Drive revenue and lower costs 🔔 The considerations for implementing samplers and analyzers.  🔔 Online analysis for process control  Thermo Fisher Scientific

Thanks Jason, this is dead on from what we are seeing. Our Distressed Asset Group has picked up notably in Bankruptcy, Deed In Lieu, and cash infusion deals. The IMN Distressed Real Estate Conference is coming up and will be a good place to figure out how this next phase of transactions will work. Here's the link - https://lnkd.in/ghMSeVM6

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