The Rand Group’s Post

Traders are now betting on continued aggressive easing by the Fed. While the central bank has signaled another 50 basis points of cuts across its two remaining 2024 meetings, the CME Group’s FedWatch tool indicates traders are pricing in an additional 75 basis points. Experts attribute this to cooling inflation, not recession fears. Prices fell to a three-year low in August, giving the Fed room for further cuts. Nationwide Mutual’s chief economist, Kathy Bostjancic, suggests that if inflation continues to ease, interest rates should be lowered accordingly. The Fed’s next interest rate decision is on Nov. 7, with another opportunity in December. Will the bulls keep charging? https://lnkd.in/e_PjmTnE

MARKET : Volatility view: Absolutely No Yellin’. This is the reverse of “when there is yellin’ you should be sellin’… VIX closed at its lowest level since January 23. Even more stunning is the the volatility of volatility (VVIX) has dropped to its lowest level since … 2015!! In our MARKETSCOPE ⬇️ we are reviewing the potential of various markets: ✅upside is limited by concerns over valuation, the market history of contentious election years, and persistent inflation. ✅downside remains cushioned by a surprisingly strong earnings season, stable yields, and a resurgence of “meme-like” spéculative trading. What will the FED do ? Is Jerome Powell playing politics ? Weeks ahead will cause investor sentiment to swing to extremes of fear and greed, which will produce the attractive risk/reward opportunities we anticipate. Enjoy 😊 #risks #economy #markets #strategy https://lnkd.in/eqCvgmE7

MARKET : Volatility view: Absolutely No Yellin’. This is the reverse of “when there is yellin’ you should be sellin’… VIX closed at its lowest level since January 23. Even more stunning is the the volatility of volatility (VVIX) has dropped to its lowest level since … 2015!! In our MARKETSCOPE ⬇️ we are reviewing the potential of various markets: ✅upside is limited by concerns over valuation, the market history of contentious election years, and persistent inflation. ✅downside remains cushioned by a surprisingly strong earnings season, stable yields, and a resurgence of “meme-like” spéculative trading. What will the FED do ? Is Jerome Powell playing politics ? Weeks ahead will cause investor sentiment to swing to extremes of fear and greed, which will produce the attractive risk/reward opportunities we anticipate. Enjoy 😊 #risks #economy #markets #strategy https://lnkd.in/eqCvgmE7

Interesting data that came out yesterday. I expect to see more hawkist remarks from the Fed in the coming month but view the short term as a key time to invest in talent to help hit 2024 ahead of the curve and create a strong 2024 for your company. My two key takeaways were: 1) Following the report, traders took any potential Fed rate hikes almost completely off the table, according to CME Group data. 2) The consumer price index was flat in October from the previous month but increased 3.2% from a year ago. Both were below Wall Street estimates, sparking a major rally on Wall Street. What do you think?!

New Post: Round up of today’s market news - https://lnkd.in/dCUbb928 Stocks Pull Back Slightly Ahead of Close; S&P and Nasdaq Lower for the Week * June Personal Income and Spending report * Atlanta Fed GDPNow growth tracker comes in at 2.8% * Gold Rebounds from Two-Week Lows Amid Mixed Inflation Data * Baker Hughes oil rig count up by 5 * European indices bounce back * Eurozone consumers see inflation at 2.8% in the next 12 months - ECB survey * Singapore central bank says no change to policy, as expected

⚠️Inflationary Bear Market $VIX 🚀: - Despite a low put-to-call ratio of 0.8, the VIX saw one of its highest single-day percent gains 📈 64% - This 📈 in vol is reminiscent of 2008 but the Put to Call ratio back then was 1.2 not .8 To learn more📰: https://lnkd.in/gUJTHJ5u

New Post: Round up of today’s market news - https://lnkd.in/e7epsVa4 Market Retreats: Major Indices Dip Following Record Highs, Breaking Streak * Atlanta Fed Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q2 growth estimate falls * Fed's Barkin: Companies are still saying there is 'no crime' in raising prices * Fed's Mester: It will take longer to gain confidence inflation moving towards 2% * Kansas City Federal Reserve announce August 22 - 24 for the Jackson Hole symposium * Gold dips as Silver rally pauses - ‘doji’ emerges * Crude oil futures for July settle at $78.74. June contract settled at $79.,23 * Major European indices close the session mostly lower

Welcome to Syz Group #globalmarkets weekly wrap-up! You can subscribe to our #newsletters through syzgroup.com/newsletter or by using the QR code at the end of the document. CHART OF THE WEEK: Finally some pain... This week was the worst one for the S&P 500 since October 2023. Inflation fears, geopolitical concerns and a broad decline in US bank stocks on Friday led to a -1.6% weekly decline for the main US equities benchmark. All the 4-major indexes— $SPY, $QQQ, $DJI, $IWM —closed the week in RED for the 6th time this year 2024. WEEKLY SUMMARY: Gold & the dollar surged, stocks & crypto purged The major US equity benchmarks retreated for the week amid heightened fears of conflict in the Middle East and some signs of persistent inflation pressures that pushed long-term Treasury yields higher. Large-caps held up better than small-caps, with the Russell 2000 Index suffering its biggest daily decline in almost two months on Wednesday. Growth stocks fared better than value shares. Wednesday morning’s release of the US CPI data, which came in higher than expected, weighed on investors’ sentiment. Overall inflation rose 3.5% yoy, its biggest gain since September. The “supercore” inflation (services prices excl. energy and housing costs) jumped 4.8% yoy, substantially higher than expectations and its biggest increase in 10 months. Thursday’s release of PPI data seemed to help calm inflation fears and help equity markets recoup a portion of their losses. But stocks pulled back sharply to end the week in the wake of reports that Iran was preparing to directly attack facilities on Israeli soil for the first time. On the week, US Treasury yields were higher, led by the short-end/belly of the curve. The dollar roared higher this week (its biggest weekly gain since Sept 2022) to its highest since Nov 2023. Gold surged to $2430 – a new all-time high – before pulling back on Friday afternoon. The STOXX Europe 600 Index ended 0.26% lower as the ECB left its key deposit rate but hinted at a rate cut in June. The Nikkei 225 gained 1.4% as the yen tumbled to fresh lows. Cryptos tumbled on Friday, erasing all weekly gains. Have a great week-end

Global stock markets have been experiencing notable volatility recently. This fluctuation is largely due to rising concerns over interest rates, inflation, and overall economic growth. Investors are particularly cautious as they await crucial interest rate decisions from central banks, especially the US Federal Reserve. In the United States, major stock indices have shown mixed performance. […]

New Post: Round up of today’s market news - https://lnkd.in/d5VGhvYB Stocks Pull Back Slightly Ahead of Close; S&P and Nasdaq Lower for the Week * June Personal Income and Spending report * Atlanta Fed GDPNow growth tracker comes in at 2.8% * Gold Rebounds from Two-Week Lows Amid Mixed Inflation Data * Baker Hughes oil rig count up by 5 * European indices bounce back * Eurozone consumers see inflation at 2.8% in the next 12 months - ECB survey * Singapore central bank says no change to policy, as expected