The news that Donald Trump was shot and injured at a campaign rally is the latest and greatest shock in a U.S. presidential campaign that has veered ever-further into uncharted territory against the backdrop of a febrile political environment and high-stakes US election. A bleeding, defiant Trump fist-pumped the air as Secret Service Agents rushed him off the stage, an image that is likely to define the campaign and solidify his image as an American folk hero and political martyr to his supporters, rallying his loyal base and enraging others. While Trump’s odds of winning have increased according to PredictIt and Real Clear Politics, we are not yet as convinced as some that his victory is a forgone conclusion. The US political risk temperature is too high and there are too many wild cards to assume linear trend lines. Comment to request our full Rapid Reaction note. #Trump #PoliticalRisk #USPolitics #BreakingNews #PoliticalShock #RiskManagement #USPoliticalRisk #CurrentEvents #PoliticalUncertainty #TrumpNews #USNews #SecurityRisk #RiskAnalysis #PoliticalEvents
Tina Fordham
3mo
Political violence is sadly a feature, not a bug, of the U.S. system. Historically, such an event would be followed by calls for unity and calm, but these are not normal times.
Fleur H.
3mo
Gosh you will need to be sitting in a hot air 🎈 Tina to avoid being pulled into all kinds of difficult conversations this week. I admire your professionalism greatly. So wishing you the best of luck this week. You will be busy!
Chris Oates
3mo
Too many pundits are certain that something will happen on a Monday, certain the opposite will happen on a Tuesday, and then confidently explain why a third thing happened on Wednesday.
Ash Salardini
3mo
Unfortunately not unique in American politics: Reagan (attempted), JFK, Bobby Kennedy, George Wallace (attempted), Truman (attempted), Roosevelt (attempted), McKinley, Garfield and most famously Lincoln. Outside of presidential candidates, most recently we had Gabby Gifford, Steve Scalise shot at.
Marco Lodi
3mo
Thanks Tina. Day after day, something new happens. Something unexpected. I do think November is still a far away and many other things can happen in this period. In your opinion, what is going to be underestimated? What are not able too see those who think that Trump already has victory in his pocket?
Michael Thompson
3mo
I’d like to see the full Rapid Reaction note, thank you.
George Hill, CFA
3mo
Interesting. Please share 🙏🏻
The usual comedy show Still going strong
Founder, Geopolitical Strategist & Advisor
3moIt’s not obvious what the precise catalysts will be, but we can be sure there will be more flashpoints and shocks given the high level of systemic volatility and erosion of traditional risk buffers, such as public trust and societal norms