📊 While correlation doesn’t always mean causation, trends in capacity and fare data reveal key signals for predictive analysis.
This summer, intra-European capacity grew by 4.3%, but average airfares only dipped 0.2%—a sign that demand held steady. However, overcapacity can lead to pricing erosion, and not every route followed the typical pattern.
When LCCs enter a market, capacity often spikes, and fares can drop. For example:
🛫 Berlin to Rome (BER-FCO): +75% capacity (Wizz Air entry), -31% airfares
🛫 Rome to Lisbon (FCO-LIS): +49% capacity (Ryanair & TAP), -8% airfares
Meanwhile, some routes saw both capacity and fares rise—exceptions, but important ones:
🛫 Bristol to Mallorca (BRS-PMI): +14% capacity, +9% airfares
🛫 Madrid to Venice (MAD-VCE): +21% capacity, +6% airfares
Tracking these shifts helps airlines and airports grow profitably while managing the risk of fare erosion. The signals are there—you just need the right data to make sense of them.
#aviation #OAG #airlines
How have increases in capacity affected average airfares for European flight routes this summer? ✈️☀️
Using OAG’s airline schedules and airfare data, we've analysed all flight routes with more than 400,000 scheduled seats over the summer season to find out - and the results aren't always what you'd expect...!
Read more: https://hubs.ly/Q02Tgpn70
