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Between May 30th and June 21st, WeThink asked 18,595 adults how they intend to vote in the general election. The results suggest Labour has a 20-percentage-point lead over the Conservatives, by 42% to 22%. Reform uk is on course for 14% of the vote, the Liberal Democrats 11% and the Green Party 6%. This is a dramatic turnaround from the 2019 election, when the Tories led by 12 points, and would be the largest swing between the main parties in modern history #UKpolitics

The most distorted election ever & the dangers that come with it For our ECR Research and ICC Consultants BV FX and Interest Rates reports, we keep close track of the upcoming UK elections. For the Financial Times, John Burn-Murdoch, points out how the FPTP electoral system could result in a extremely skewed election outcome: "...On current polling, 2024’s will be the most disproportionate result ever recorded in a UK general election in terms of the mismatch between votes and seats...By the same measure it will also be the most distorted election outcome of any major country in the world. There is a distinct possibility that the UK general election on July 4 produces the following outcome. Sir Keir Starmer’s Labour party wins a record 450 seats and a huge majority on a lower share of the vote than Jeremy Corbyn’s Labour achieved in 2017. Meanwhile, the Liberal Democrats win the second-largest number seats, becoming the official opposition, despite finishing fourth on vote share behind both the Conservatives and Nigel Farage’s Reform UK. The Conservatives and Reform are on course to win a combined 37 per cent of votes, but perhaps as little as 10 per cent of seats in the Commons. You could scarcely come up with a better recipe for fuelling the advance of Faragism: millions of voters with a justifiable sense of having been screwed by the system, while their figureheads rail against power instead of having to face the choices that come with wielding it — a position populists have always preferred...." https://lnkd.in/dSPrDMcr #UKpolitics #UKelection #politics #politicalrisk #UnitedKingdom #Britain

Happy to share with you my latest analysis France is headed for a hung parliament after none of the political parties that contested Sunday’s parliamentary runoff vote managed to secure an outright majority — a situation that could put the country on a path for months of political gridlock. A hastily assembled coalition of left-leaning parties called the New Popular Front (NFP) unexpectedly became the largest bloc, winning 182 seats in France's 577-seat parliament after voters denied a majority to the far right, which had dominated the first round of legislative elections a week earlier. President Emmanuel Macron’s centrist alliance won 163 seats, while the far-right National Rally party, led by Marine Le Pen, finished third with 143 seats. “The election results indicate that the strategy of a ‘republican front’ uniting the left and center-right to counter the far-right, worked, but did not result in a single party achieving the 289 seats required for an absolute majority,” said Celine Pajon of the Paris-based French Institute of International Relations. In France’s dual-executive republic, it has been customary since 1986 for the president to appoint a prime minister from the parliamentary majority, even if that means selecting someone from a different political party — a situation called “cohabitation.” But the latest election results put France in uncharted territory as the country has never had a parliament with no dominant party and therefore has no tradition of coalition governments. “We are in an unprecedented situation, and it might take months to reach an agreement and establish a government,” Pajon said, adding that coalition negotiations “are likely to be challenging” amid deep divides over issues such as immigration, pensions and taxes. Complicating matters are Macron’s statements that he would not work with the far-left France Unbowed party of Jean-Luc Melenchon, the largest in the left-leaning alliance. Click here to read the full analysis https://lnkd.in/g6SBBCHW

Can Tasmania set a precedent for the Commonwealth? Can we learn from the way a hung parliament needs to cooperate with the crossbench when it comes to Australian policy making? I am somewhat excited to see the story unfold over the next few months before the next Federal election. On national level, the crossbench has already proven to be a vital pivot point when it comes to decisive policies. Tasmania can now show how that can work in an even more critical setting. https://lnkd.in/gqRGAUSj

📢 UK General Election: How It Works, When Results Come In, and Why It Matters Globally 🗳️ The UK general election is set for 4th July! Here's everything you need to know: 1. How Do Elections Work? -The UK is divided into 650 constituencies. -Voters choose a representative for their constituency in the Houses of Parliament. -Key parties include Labour, Conservatives, Liberal Democrats, SNP, Green Party, -Reform UK, Sinn Féin, and DUP. -The party with the most MPs forms the government if it has a majority (326+ seats). 2.Who Can Vote? -About 49 million people are registered to vote. -Voters must be 18+, and either British, Commonwealth, or Irish citizens. -Voting isn't compulsory. 3. Voting Methods: -In-person at polling stations (7am-10pm). -By post or proxy. -Photo ID required since May 2023. 4. When Will Results Be Announced? -Exit polls at 10pm on election night. -First results around 11.30pm, most by 3am, all by 8am Friday. 5. Current Polls: -Labour leads with a 20-point margin over the Conservatives. -Potential Labour majority with 428 seats. 6. Party Leaders: -Conservatives: Rishi Sunak -Labour: Keir Starmer -Liberal Democrats: Ed Davey -SNP: John Swinney -Green Party: Carla Denyer & Adrian Ramsay -Reform UK: Nigel Farage 7. Why This Election Matters: -Following years of political turbulence: austerity, Brexit, leadership changes, scandals. Voters may shift towards Labour and populist Reform UK. Stay informed and make your voice heard! 🗳️✨ #marvelsuccessworldwidelimited #property #propertyinvestment #realestate #UKPropertyDeals #AsianInvestorMarket #UKPropertyDeals #AsianInvestors #InvestmentOpportunities #BuildingTrust #RealEstate #GuideBook #SuccessStories

[NEWS 🇪🇺 European Parliament new configuration] Citizens of the European Union's 27 member states voted between June 6 and 9 to elect the 720 members of the European Parliament for the next five-year term. 👀 What are the main takes so far? ↪ First projections show that the European People's Party (EPP) group maintains its position as the leading force, with 185 seats and gaining 9 more MEPs compared to the last elections. ↪ The Socialists and Socialists and Democrats Group in the European Parliament (S&D) came second with 137 seats. ↪ The liberal Renew Europe group is down from 102 seats to 79, remaining in third position. ↪ On the right flank of the hemicycle, ECR Group in the European Parliament obtained three additional seats moving from 69 to 73 MEPs. Far-right Identity and Democracy (ID) also surged, scooting 58 seats compared to their previous 49. ↪ The unknown factor resides in the 54 and 46 seats under the category of “others” and “non-affiliated”, respectively, bringing together all new parties which have not yet officially declared their group affiliation. Projections are provisionals. Updates will be published on the EP website 👉 https://lnkd.in/eM4nxcue

@AKAS #analysis of 870 UK #generalelection campaign #polls from the last 60 years clearly shows that we are going to experience a historic election day. Some insights for you to ponder over: Scale of polling ▶ The 2024 General Election campaign is the most polled campaign ever with 142 polls ▶ YouGov and More in Common published the most general election polls during the campaign Share of vote changes ▶ The Conservatives’ share of vote has declined by 2.8% pts on average throughout the campaign ▶ An analysis of the general election polls from the last 60 years shows that the Conservatives are polling particularly badly in 2024 ▶ However, Labour’s share of vote has fallen even further by 4.8% pts on average throughout the campaign ▶ So, Labour’s average lead has fallen by 2% pts  ▶ Reform looks like it’s picked up Labour and Conservative lose of share. Reform’s share of vote has  increased by an average 5% pts The potential result ▶ Labour’s poll lead in 2023 has fallen by less than it did in the 1997 campaign. ▶ So, the 6-week poll trend points towards a much higher majority than the 179 level of 1997 ▶ And Labour’s poll lead has steadied in the last 3 days vs sharp falls in the 1997 campaign. Labour is set to have a lead of 15% to 19% - pointing to a 200+ majority. I’ll be updating this next week so any observations are very welcome Off I go to vote now! #generalelection2024 #politics #trends #analysis

Coming up today on the Local Government News Roundup: 🎙 Electoral structure changes announced for 39 Victorian councils 🎙Heated debate as Councils urged to declare support for a ceasefire in Gaza 🎙A new home for a Western Melbourne A-League club takes a major step forward 🎙A mayor’s plea to Taylor Swift to make a local visit 🎙Queensland local government elections in full swing with some surprising early results 🎙Western Sydney mayors hit out at a proposed new housing tax 🎙A NSW community to vote on directly electing its mayor 🎙Three councils around the country struggling to find and keep CEOs 🎙And the council fixing potholes with vegetable oil. Plus more Council news from across Australia and beyond on the Local Government News Roundup, brought to you by the Victorian Local Governance Association, the national broadcaster on all things local government; with support from Davidson, the nationally recognised executive recruitment service and business advisory practice. Click here for links, transcript and more: https://lnkd.in/gXQTkVbN

The British electoral system was designed to limit the voice of the people. Yesterday it delivered a spectacularly perverse outcome.Labour secured a massive majority, with an enormous increase in seats, with barely a third of the vote and almost no increase in its vote share. Labour won because the Conservative vote collapsed, and split.The Lib Dems went from a marginal 8 seats to 71 with, again, almost no change in their vote share, winning seats mostly because the Conservative vote collapsed and split.The only parties to genuinely increase their vote share were Reform (unfortunately) and the Greens. And the Greens did well because of a long term strategy of winning councils, building grassroots power, and targeting four seats.The story of most recent elections - in Australia, the UK, France, Europe - is that our electoral systems are splintering and breaking as people seek actual democratic representation. First Past the Post is the worst, and broke badly yesterday. But even Australia’s excellent electoral system is not matching the democratic impulse.Elections are not democracy. They’re not even very democratic.I

When you go to vote on July 4th, I’d like to suggest one slight change to Patrick Tooher’s comment in relation to the excellent article in the Financial Times by John Burn-Murdoch…. Politicians should put their CONSTITUENTS first, then country, then party, as you consider where to put your X. Yes, potential members of the House of Commons, unless they stand as #Independent candidates, nail their initial mast to a particular party’s manifesto. However, I would like to believe that they also campaign based on their constituents requirements. Further, I would like to think that if they are true to their #principles and have #honesty and #integrity about them, that should their party move away from a policy previously signalled, that they would remove themselves from any whip. Yes it’s a career, but the primary focus of an MP should be to serve all the constituents who they represent whether they voted for them or not. I can say (and am lucky enough) to have had personal interaction with MP’s (and further those who sit in the UK House of Lords) and more importantly they have come from The Conservative Party, The Labour Party and Liberal Democrat’s. All have proven to me that there are good politicians amongst the many that aren’t. This election, feels to me, more important than many in my adult life. I’m undecided as to who to vote for. The UK 🇬🇧 like much of the world 🌍 is at a crossroads. If you’re like me, I can only suggest that set aside all previous allegiances and talk to as many of your local candidates as possible and ask them the simple question of: If your party followed a policy that you fundamentally disagreed with, will you remove yourself from the whip and become independent? If they hesitate, then don’t vote for them. If it’s an unequivocal No, then consider carefully if they are deserving of your vote If it’s Yes - and you can get it in writing - then vote for them. Just a thought for those who are undecided… Have a great weekend everyone! 🤔👍🕊️🇬🇧 #democracy #freedom #allegiance #opinion #politics #media #socialmedia