Villy Petersen’s Post

This year will see the #IPCC make significant progress in its seventh cycle on a number of key areas and geographies, including Short Lived Climate Pollutants and #cities. #SLCPs #climatechange

New paper contributing among giants to understating and reviewing how deep uncertainty can better be used for the IPCC AR7!! All analysts and modellers could learn a lot from this, and lots going on in this domain for the foreseeable future!

The IPCC exists to provide policy-relevant science to decision-makers.  Often the most policy relevant information is uncertain.  Over the last twenty-five years, the IPCC has drawn increasingly on DMDU concepts to more effectively include policy-relevant, but lower-confidence scientific information in its assessments. Our new paper – The Use of DMDU in the IPCC –describes how the IPCC has benefited from DMDU and how DMDU can contribute to the next IPCC assessment report. Judy Lawrence Marjolijn Haasnoot Bob Kopp Andy Reisinger Michael Grubb Roberto Pasqualino https://lnkd.in/gV_X2M7b

The IPCC has 2 calls out for Assessment Report contributors - you can nominate yourself or someone else. Apply via your country's IPCC Focal Point (there's a link to the full list from each article with the full details below). Deadlines for nominations may vary by country. https://lnkd.in/e-eX9xGz https://lnkd.in/eG_8E2ds #ClimateScience #IPCC #ClimateChange #Cities #AssessmentReports Alexandre Fernandes Bart van den Hurk Roger Street Brian Ó Gallachóir C40 Cities @

❓❓❓HOW DID THE UK DECARBONISE ITS ELECTRICITY SYSTEM   This is my favourite chart of our recent paper 'Climate policies that achieved major emission reductions', published last week in Science (see https://lnkd.in/eaKvGmH3 for key messages). It really shows the value added of our OECD climate policy database (CAPMF), which includes information on policy instruments beyond carbon pricing.   🗝 key message: Carbon pricing is important to reduce emissions, but many times it is not doing the job alone.   💡In more detail: ✅we detect two emissions breaks (vertical red lines) in UK's electricity sector in the 2010s that follow the introduction of the carbon price floor (CPF) ✅the existing literature has attributed most of the decline in emissions to the CPF (see work by Marion Leroutier; Jan Abrell, Mirjam Kosch, Sebastian Rausch or Niklas Döbbeling-Hildebrandt and colleagues from PIK - Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research and Mercator Research Institute on Global Commons and Climate Change (MCC) gGmbH) ✅we show that the CPF was part of a wider policy mix (coloured squares at the bottom) ✅in addition to the CPF, this mix comprised regulatory instruments (e.g. stricter air pollution standards) as well as subsidies (e.g. feed-in-tariffs and auctions)   Links Study: https://lnkd.in/emNSyUmw Climate policy explorer: https://lnkd.in/e4YyxwKa CAPMF dataset: https://oe.cd/dx/capmf   #climateaction #climatepolicy #electricity #UK

I am thrilled to share that our new book chapter, "Exploring the Interconnection Between Greenhouse Gas Emissions, Climate Change, and Natural Resource Degradation in the Central Region of Morocco," authored by Ouchen Ibrahim et al. has been published online. This chapter will also be featured in our forthcoming book, "Climate Change and Environmental Degradation in the MENA Region," which is a part of Springer's Scopus-indexed series, "The Handbook of Environmental Chemistry." You can access it here: https://lnkd.in/dCEkzT69

Emil Dimanchev, Stein-Erik Fleten, Steven Gabriel, and Magnus Korpas. 2024. “Effects of Electricity Sector Climate Policies in a Second-Best World of Missing Risk Markets.” Findings, March. Analyses of climate policies often assume the economy is in a first-best equilibrium with well-functioning markets. This paper studies policy effects in power systems characterized by a market failure known as the missing market problem, whereby the incompleteness of long-term markets leaves investors exposed to uninsured risk. We find that renewable tax credits and CO taxes may partly correct this market failure, thus providing an economic benefit additional to climate change mitigation. Consequently, illustrative experiments show the costs of these policies to be lower, and in some cases even negative, in power systems with missing risk markets. https://lnkd.in/gR6t-wCG.

ASR Climate Macro - Investing in Water The latest publication from the ASR Climate Macro Team delves into water solutions. Michael Penn provides a comprehensive analysis of supply and consumption dynamics, along with targeted recommendations for investing in the $500+ billion listed global water market. Key Insights:  • Imminent Imbalance: Water demand could exceed supply by 40% by the end of this decade.  • Infrastructure Investment: A $6.5 trillion investment in water infrastructure is required by 2030.  • Opportunities for Innovation: Government funding gaps highlight opportunities for innovative water businesses.  • Thematic Tracking: ASR’s CMS team has constructed two thematic water indices to monitor this trend. ASR's clients can access these reports here: https://lnkd.in/ezKe884z  Not a client yet? Sign up for a free trial of our award-winning research here: https://lnkd.in/drYZWGy  #InvestingInWater #ClimateChange #WaterInfrastructure #InnovativeSolutions #SustainableInvesting #climate #sustainability #macroresearch #waterinvesting #climatemacro #asr #absolutestrategyresearch #sustainablefinance #sustainabilityinvesting Michael Hessel 

Excited to share our latest publication in Climate Policy: "Factors enabling or impeding the institutionalization of climate change mitigation in municipalities: findings from a survey in Germany" First of all, a big thank you to my co-authors Elisabeth Dütschke and Joachim Schleich! In our study, we explore the factors that enable or impede integrating climate change mitigation into the strategies and administrative structures of municipalities in Germany. The findings suggest that municipalities are more likely to institutionalize climate change mitigation if they: ✔️ Frequently exchange climate-related information with other municipalities, civil society, and companies ✔️ Have higher shares of votes for the Green party ✔️ Are more urbanized Policy implications: ▶️ There is a growing need for more participatory and polycentric approaches involving multiple actors in municipal decision-making processes. ▶️ Strengthening municipal authorities’ capacities in less urbanized municipalities could foster the institutionalization of climate change mitigation.

A study from the University of #Oxford, Potsdam Institute for #ClimateImpact Research, and the Mercator Research Institute analyzed 1,500 climate policies from the #OECD’s high-quality policy database. Using machine-learning methods, the team identified “emission breaks” following policy interventions, revealing only 63 successful policies across four sectors, 41 countries, and two decades. These interventions led to reductions in global CO₂ emissions of 0.6 to 1.8 gigatonnes (Gt). Given that emissions from fossil fuels and industry reached approximately 37.4 Gt in 2024, these policy-induced reductions represent a modest impact (Carbon Brief, 2024), yet positions effective cases provide for improving global climate policy effectiveness. The study concluded that climate policies work best as part of a mix, such as combining carbon pricing with subsidies, and that the effectiveness of policies varies by economic development status. Carbon pricing is effective in developed countries, and regulations more impactful in developing nations. Implementing successful approaches from the 63 identified cases could close the Paris Agreement emissions gap by 26–41%. #ClimatePolicy #CarbonEmissionsReduction