Walid Abousleiman’s Post

Where does French politics stand after the past couple of weeks? Oxford Economics France economist Léo Barincou provides an in-depth analysis on the potential #fiscal impacts of this evolving political landscape. #frenchpolitics #frenchelections #franceeconomy

A murky way forward for French politics. https://okt.to/IYxOsJ The second round of the French snap elections resulted in a hung parliament, as we expected. The way ahead is currently very blurry, with outcomes ranging from a minority left-wing government to a grand coalition of moderate parties, or even a technocratic government. No matter what the eventual compromise is, political instability will remain a feature of French politics for the foreseeable future. #frenchelection #politics

7 July 2024 FRENCH ELECTIONS A broad Left-leaning executive: What does it mean for France?  Current projections for the new French parliament suggest 172-192 seats for Nouveau Front Populaire, 150-170 seats for President Macron’s Ensemble pour la République (Together for the Republic), 132-152 seats for Le Pen’s RN and its allies, and 57-67 for the Republicans. A hung parliament makes the broad anti-Le Pen coalition led by the Left the only possible option for forming a new government. It will not be easy to combine such different platforms and people. Given generous electoral promises and potentially some rolling back of Macron’s reforms, there is a risk to public finances. It will be problematic for Europe, but not as much as a Far Right victory.  (check with me for full commentary; institutional investors only) #france #frenchelections #Eurozone

Our recent publication "#Macron Revolutionises and Rejuvenates The Government Ahead of the European Elections" by Prof. Brunello Rosa and Shahed Hassanaly is available on Rosa Roubini Associates' website. In this paper, we discuss: 1. The recent reshuffle in #France’s government and the motivations behind it; 2. The young personality of the new prime minister and his background; 3. The composition of the new government – confirmations and new arrivals; 4. The rise of Jordan #Bardella at the helm of the Rassémblement National; and 5. The latest polls ahead of the #EU elections in June. Read it here: https://lnkd.in/gTwWJb-2

Spotlight: UK and France Elections While both the #UK and #France experienced leftward ideological shifts in elections this past week, the new government in London will be more stable and coherent than in Paris. As a result, policy change in the UK will be substantial as Labour overhauls Tory policies, though constrained by fiscal challenges. By contrast, President Emmanuel Macron’s centrist Ensemble and the leftist NPF – which succeeded in keeping the far-right RN from power – will likely fail to form a governing majority, increasing the fiscal risks of policymaking. Relatedly, rising Political Risk is forecast to decline sooner in the UK than in France, led by Governance Risk.  Please visit www.geoquant.com or schedule a demo info@geoquant.com to learn more. #PoliticalRisk #Elections #Geopolitics

The head of the Liberal Renew group said that the European Union could become ungovernable if the far-right performs well in the upcoming EU parliament elections in June 2024. This comes as far-right parties like Marine Le Pen's National Rally in France and Matteo Salvini's League in Italy are expected to prosper in the upcoming elections. In addition, anti-immigration populist Geert Wilders win the Dutch elections has sent a warning to leftists and centrists in Europe. Will the far-right be able to govern Europe? How will it look like? Will anti-immigration policies be adopted in Europe? How will this affect the economy? politics?

French elections show the beauty of democracy. The last minute surge of the left in the final phases of the polling has sent a strong message. Society is highly divided, so politicians are being told to make it work with a divided parliament. The fear that far right will take over has proven to be false. Centrists have been relegated to second place with left parties getting the plurality to parliament. I see a left/center partnership emerging here. Democracies are great at forcing the politicians to handle diversity productively. We see that happening in India and we have seen that happen in US where voters have split the power structure so nobody has the absolute control. On the other hand, in UK fedup voters have decided to give labor a chance with clear mandate.

10 June 2024 EUROPEAN ELECTIONS Don’t be taken away by the French baiser sur la joue!  The European elections caused a political earthquake in France and led to a predictable shift to the Right in the European Parliament. The pivotal party became the People’s Party (it was Renew Europe), marking a significant change in the political landscape. However, the anticipated wave towards the Far Right did not materialise. Top EU positions can easily find the necessary support of the existing four-party alliance. Ursula von der Leyen is closer to being confirmed for a second term as President of the Commission. Broadening the current alliance to the ECR or just Meloni’s Brothers of Italy looks tricky, although not impossible. Despite today’s hit on European assets, market worries are excessive. Over time, the focus will move to the possible shift in policy priorities. (check with me for full commentary; institutional investors only) #europeanelections #EUpolicies #EUpolitics

🇪🇺 We have an initial result of the elections to the #EuropeanParliament. At this stage, it is, of course, too soon to draw any grand conclusions. 👀 Still, there are a few takeaways from the #EU election results that are worth noting. 1️⃣ No great changes in the majority conditions of the Parliament 2️⃣ Far-right surge in #France 3️⃣ Lithuanian Commissioner Virginijus Sinkevičius wins a seat 4️⃣ Vice President of the European Parliament Martin Hojsik keeps his seat 5️⃣ Did Ursula von der Leyen secure a second term? 👉🏿 Get all the details here: https://lnkd.in/dFzv5PKP ❓ What are YOUR main takeaways so far?

The European Parliament elections have seen an increase in support for radical-right forces, which will inevitably affect EU policies.   Fifteen experts reflect on what to expect on the EU's agenda and how nationalist politics in some member states may hinder the EU's ability to tackle geopolitical challenges: https://lnkd.in/ehm4McMq #StrategicEurope #RadicalRight #EUElections2024 #France #Germany