BJP’s Dilemma: It has maximised use of weapons in its armoury; now what?
What next? The BJP will have a real problem resolving the question after the disastrous show in the Hindi heartland in the current round of assembly elections. The elections have not only shattered the myth of invincibility of the party, they have also laid bare the fallibility of its formidable winning formula: sharp polarisation on the ground and parallel talk of development for general consumption at another level.
The vote share in the important states that went to polls does not indicate that all is lost for the BJP, but it suddenly appears vulnerable. It has overplayed the Hindutva card, to the point of making even lay Hindus wary, and returns from it can only diminish now. The results from Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh are an eye-opener. Moreover, Hindutva does not have the same emotive resonance in the rest of India as in the cow belt.
Not much of development is in sight to enthuse the masses and unless there is a dramatic change on this front, it can no more be the unique selling proposition for the party, the way it was in 2014. The assembly election results make it clear that people are no more prepared to buy loud promises, they want perceptible positive change in their existential conditions.
To make it more worrisome for the party, which largely banks on pandering to raw sentiments to sway voters, it has maximised the use of all weapons at its command. The tactic of communalising elections may have reached a dead end, particularly after other political parties having recalibrated their electoral strategies to nullify the BJP’s game plan. There’s this niggling suspicion among several local BJP functionaries that the communal campaign unleashed by Yogi Adityanath and others added no value to the party’s campaign, rather it actually damaged its chances in Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh.
The divisive debate over patriotism and nationalism has run its course. The cow obsession of the party and the activities of cow protectors have started denting its image seriously. The fury over the activities of the creative community and rationalists may be fodder for frenzied social media rant, but as a tool for winning elections it has little use. Almost everything else that is close to the heart of the fringe Hindutva groups is likely to hurt the BJP’s electoral prospects more than help it. The Indian voters have understood that such issues are a distraction from the real bread and butter matters that confront them.
The dynasty barb, one of the favourite weapons of the BJP in its attack against the Congress, is past its sell-by date. Prime Minister Narendra Modi harped on this, rather incongruously, during the campaign. Obviously, voters were not impressed. The irony of a party full of dynasts calling the rival dynastic was not lost on anyone.
The surgical strikes have been overpoliticised and will not yield electoral dividends. Demonetisation, has lost its sheen as a talking point. GST may have been a good decision but is not something the ruling party would likely to talk loudly about. The ceaseless chatter on threat from Pakistan and terror may still be getting television anchors excited but the masses are not enthused.
The impressive statues of leaders, both recently built and upcoming, are not of much electoral value. Whatever the government's contention may be, for the ordinary people these are tell-tale proof of the government's misplaced priorities. The contention that it inherited a legacy full of intractable problems is not going to evoke sympathy for the party, particularly after five years in power with a comfortable majority.
The limitation of media as a propaganda tool stands exposed. It is obvious now that a big section of it, the staunchest ally of the government, is preaching to the converted and its potential to influence people across the country is seriously limited. The more they make a song and dance of cases against political enemies of the party in power, the more they drive home the point that the cases have barely moved beyond television studios in the last five years. No one is in jail yet. The irony is hard to ignore: they try to expose the rivals but end up revealing the incompetence of the government more.
Let's revert to the orginal question: What next? With all weapons at its command used to the maximum, the BJP has to think afresh a new strategy. Like we have mentioned earlier, the party is still in a strong position in all the states where it lost. It needs to drop its jaded strategy and devise a new one. It would not be too difficult given the party is known to be nimble in tactical planning and execution. Unless, of course, it is too late for that.