Layman Approach to Understand The Balance of Power : Reflections on the Lok Sabha Election Results

Since we started understanding the world around us, we've learned that political parties significantly impact the thoughts, culture, growth, development, and economy of a nation. For any nation, a balance between the right and the left is essential. A strong opposition makes governance more robust and ensures that checks and balances are maintained. After checking various influencers' reports and news discussions, my small mind came up with an understanding of a few key things about the recent Lok Sabha election results. The reactions have been mixed: shocking for the BJP and its followers, and a cause for celebration for the rest. But what is the real reason behind the celebrations? Is it the victory of the opposition, or the setback for the BJP?

One key observation is the movement of the vote bank from Mayawati's Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) to other parties, reflecting disenchantment among her supporters. Additionally, the impact of caste and reservation policies, particularly in states like Maharashtra and Uttar Pradesh (UP), played a crucial role. In West Bengal, the BJP faced a different challenge due to intense polarization, which they were unable to counter effectively. This highlights the hyper local nature of the recent elections, where regional issues took precedence over national narratives.

In nearly all the analysis discussions, one point was common that, the election results in UP were primarily influenced by caste and community dynamics. The Congress, although it saw a slight increase in vote share, was not the major gainer. Instead, the Samajwadi Party (SP) contributed significantly, with the election driven by Muslim consolidation and caste orientation. This led to a substantial shift in votes away from the BJP. Despite claims that these results signify the defeat of Brand Modi, his influence remained strong in other states like Odisha, MP and Tamil Nadu. In these regions, the BJP made significant inroads, showcasing that while their traction may have reduced in some areas, it remained formidable in others. (Map of Bharat is still more in Bhagwa than blue as per the presentations shown)

Then what was the positive thing to look at? Why not to appreciate the other side of winners.  One of the major reasons for the opposition's success was their unified front. By eliminating separate identities and consolidating their efforts, they presented a stronger challenge to the BJP. Notably, Mayawati ji chose not to contest, thereby consolidating votes and impacting the results significantly. Caste and reservation issues again played a crucial role, particularly in UP.

Now emotions talking about see how people don’t support. Let’s see, that in states like UP and particularly Ayodhya, local grievances contributed to the BJP's losses. For instance, small retailers in Ayodhya were adversely affected by sudden development projects initiated to transform the city into a major religious and tourist hub. While the large-scale development promised long-term benefits, the immediate disruption to local businesses created resentment. Shopkeepers and small traders found their livelihoods threatened by the construction activities and the influx of large corporations, which led to a sense of neglect and abandonment by the government. (anyhow the visitors to Ayodhya are not voters, but all the small but important local ones are).  

Moreover, the lack of recognition for local sacrifices during the Ayodhya ceremony served as a poignant example of political insensitivity. While the government may have touted the grandeur of the event and its significance on a national level, the failure to acknowledge the contributions and hardships of local communities struck a chord with many voters. Their sense of disillusionment was further fueled by the perception that their concerns were being overlooked in favor of political grandstanding.

Furthermore, the selection of unpopular candidates further alienated voters. In Ayodhya, the BJP candidate was a high-profile figure with a strong national presence but lacked local connect and grassroots support. This disconnect was evident as many voters felt their specific regional concerns were not adequately represented or addressed. The opposition effectively capitalized on this sentiment by creating a fear of constitutional changes, resonating with the electorate's concerns.

Now comes the smallest but important part. The strategic use of words in political speeches is akin to wielding a double-edged sword; it can either bolster support or sow seeds of doubt and discontent among voters. During the recent Lok Sabha elections, this tactic played a pivotal role in shaping public opinion and influencing voter sentiment. Politicians carefully crafted their messages to resonate with specific demographics, often exploiting emotive issues to rally support.

Misinterpretations and negative perceptions further compounded the impact of political speech-making. For instance, a statement taken out of context or twisted to fit a particular narrative could sway public opinion against a candidate or party. In the heat of election campaigns, sensationalized headlines and social media rumors often clouded the truth, leading to confusion and distrust among voters.

Many things are there to discuss if we don’t want to discuss the development part. Leave all behind, now results are out so, the question arises: Are the opposition parties celebrating their own victory, or are they celebrating the BJP's losses? The new government includes alliance with the party that have ruled for the past ten years on it’s own, yet the celebration seems more about stopping the BJP rather than claiming a clear victory. That’s why just thought to proceed with some significant comparisons.

As a student or can say out of learners curiosity just opted examining the curve of the last three general elections that gives us a framework to understand the current scenario. Comparing past elections offers insights into public sentiment and political strategies. For example, in 2009, after five years of Congress governance, they received 206 seats, indicating public acceptance. However, after ten years, they plummeted to 44 seats in 2014.

The 2014 election was driven by hope – the hope for change and revolution. In 2019, it was built on trust – a belief that five more years were needed for the promised transformation. However, 2024 seems to be characterized by escapism and reluctance – somehow a sentiment that there was no other viable option and somewhere a fear of losing things.

Similarly, the BJP, after five years in power, crossed 300 seats in 2019. After ten years, they secured around 240 seats. Despite some public discontent, this level of support indicates significant acceptance. Consider Gujarat: in 2017, BJP's lower performance was seen as a sign of decline. However, by 2022, they had turned the situation around completely, demonstrating their ability to correct mistakes and adapt. (Parties have to be Cautious in that case)

Finally, we can understand that the recent Lok Sabha results underscore the complexities of Indian politics (whatever one say, nature, connect, emotions, development, growth etc etc whatever). They highlight the importance of local issues, strategic alliances, and effective communication. While the BJP faces the challenge of introspection and realignment, the opposition must build on their gains to ensure sustainable progress. Ultimately, the elections reflect the dynamic nature of democracy, where power and influence are constantly negotiated and redefined by the electorate. The results reiterate the need for a balanced political landscape, where a strong opposition ensures effective governance. Moving forward, the focus should be on addressing the core issues that matter to the electorate and fostering a political environment that thrives on diversity and balance. People like me (if Voted) should focus on learning, discussing, understanding, unlearning and relearning but not augmenting on the area which not my cup of coffee !!