Will the Brexit Plan B work?

Theresa May’s Plan B appears to be more of Plan A. But this time around with the expectation that it will be backed by the minority governing Conservative party she leads and the support of the DUP - a Northern Ireland regional sectarian party of 10 MPs.

Mrs May will not sort out the Irish backstop issue without the backing of the opposition Labour MPs. Indeed, the backstop itself is another symptom of a problematic Brexit. The backstop is the government’s recognition that the future UK-EU relationship (which ultimately avoids the backstop) will be finalised in less than 3 years. Negotiating a new relationship of this nature will take 5–7 years.

Sources from both the EU’s European Commission and Council suggest flexibility. But before changes to the Brexit deal in general or the backstop in particular are made, the EU need to be sure that Mrs May is true to her word and will get any revised deal through the UK national parliament. And there’s no certainty of that, without Labour’s help,

Indeed, any course of action taken by Mrs May’s risks further splitting her already divided Conservative party. The Customs Union, a preference for harder Brexit or second referendum are going to further split Mrs May's Conservative party.

There are less than 45 parliamentary days before Brexit automatically happens on 29 March 2019, and the UK leaves the EU without a withdrawal agreement. This is the no-deal Brexit crisis. Even if parliament does back the withdrawal agreement in a a fresh vote now expected in mid February 2019, there won’t be the time needed to implement the agreement plus the five other legislative bills required.

Any decision by Mrs May to officially adopt a government policy of actively perusing the no-deal Brexit crisis will have grave consequences. Her party will split and she will lose a third of her cabinet, with multiple ministerial resignations. Parliament will be unwilling to provide the legislative means for Mrs May to implement her no-deal Brexit crisis policies either.

Labour opposition leader Jeremy Corbyn is unlikely to ever come out for another Brexit referendum. Mr Corbyn also rejects leaving without a withdrawal agreement. In turn, this means that there is a clear Parliamentary majority against leaving with no-deal, too.

The practical problems of the current national Brexit crisis are taking their toll. Food and medicine is being stockpiled. Businesses are already putting in place their own contingency plans - some of which means jobs are leaving the UK. This involves unnecessary spending which by extension means these business are concentrating on survival, not growth right now.

The European Commission and EU 27 national leaders will wait to see what happens in the UK national parliament over the coming weeks, before deciding how they best help Mrs May. If indeed, they can help Mrs May at all.

Mrs May’s latest tactics are going to fail. More useful developments will unfold among the Conservative MPs who prefer a softer Brexit. Along with Mr Corbyn’s own position.