Charts of the Week | 13th November - 17th November 2023

Chart 1:

Diesel cracks continue to come under pressure on the back of the temporary Russian diesel export ban u-turn. In addition, bearish macro sentiment and weak spec positioning data continue to add headwinds for Distillate cracks.

Chart 2:

Total Net Spec Length continues to take a hit after 3 weeks of relentless selling in the oil markets. Total net spec length is at 346K contracts and 80K contracts above the YTD lows and down by 65% from the 2021 peak. (Source: CFTC and ICE)

Chart 3:

China’s refinery runs continue to remain above 15MMBD despite the dip from last month’s record highs. Weak margins led to softer runs but from a y/y basis, they remain 9% or 1.3MMBD higher. (Source: NBS China)

Chart 4:

The prompt crude curves continue to be under relentless pressure. Despite low Cushing stocks, Front spread and M2-M3 WTI spreads both dipped into contango for the first time since end June. The prompt crude structure continues to underperform compared to the back end of the curve.

Chart 5:

The latest JODI showed Saudi crude production ticking along 9MMBD as the supply cuts try to keep the markets balanced. Saudi crude exports are down by 2MMBD y/y while Saudi refinery runs finally ramping up which could impact crude exports even further going forward. (Source: JODI)