HT Pincode: Narratives shift from by-lane to by-lane, from pincode to pincode

Dear reader,

Forty-four breathless days, 543 constituencies, thousands of candidates, a billion voters, all wrapped into one mesmeric exercise -- the Indian general elections. 

A process that has enraptured the world will call curtains on Saturday evening, when the final voter gets their finger painted in that signature black indelible ink.

But hidden within the folds of this multitudinous event are individual stories. Stories of hurt, happiness, loss, hope, strife, survival, life, and death. The Indian polls are uniquely defined by a vast cross-section of social, economic, cultural, linguistic and geographic factors. Narratives shift from by-lane to by-lane, from pincode to pincode. 

To capture these nuances and to understand the issues that best defined the elections, HT set out across the length and breadth of the country, covering 33 Lok Sabha constituencies, pincode by pincode.

Pressing issues

Take, for instance, Rohtak in Haryana, where jobs are rare, but expenses are soaring. This forced thousands of young, unemployed people to flock to job openings in Israel, which needed labourers to make up for a dire shortage amid its ongoing war with Hamas. There lies a story of aspiration, of people risking the unpredictability of war to better the lives of their families. But beyond that lay a factor that was pivotal throughout the campaign season - jobs.

Another central theme of these elections was citizenship and illegal immigration. In Dhubri, Assam, this rhetoric has real-life implications. This thorny question has animated the state’s politics for close to half a century and remains an unfolding humanitarian story, one that has pitted the ruling BJP-Asom Gana Parishad alliance against the Congress and parties such as the All India United Democratic Front (AIUDF).

In scarred Muzaffarnagar, Uttar Pradesh, the fissures of the 2013 communal riots run deep. Reconciliation has been hard. And on March 2, 2024, the Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD), a party founded by Jat leader Choudhary Charan Singh and now led by his grandson Jayant Chaudhary, abandoned the INDIA bloc, and joined hands with the BJP, smashing a local consensus and setting the constituency into a political unknown.

Several miles west, Ghaziabad, also in Uttar Pradesh, wakes up to the towering Ghazipur landfill, every single day. The towering mass of garbage cripples life around it, adversely impacting incomes and health. But a surprising lack of public and political will to change the status quo in one of India's most polluted cities has left millions vulnerable in one of the state's largest constituencies.

Down south, thousands find work in the drab assembly lines of Sriperumbudur in Tamil Nadu. The work hours spill beyond the limit, bathroom breaks are frowned upon and the food is inedible. But the pay is commensurate. And that has made all the difference.

An identity question

A small district in Odisha paints a telling picture of the fight for the tribal vote across India. Mayurbhanj is the seat of a clash of two opposing world views – one closer to the BJP’s formula of marrying tribal empowerment with cultural identity politics, and the other focussed on welfare and local recognition of diverse faiths and practices. Which way the tribal vote swings may also dictate the state’s electoral fortunes.

The towering Taj Mahal in Uttar Pradesh too is home to a great churn – within the Dalit community. It is a moment of extraordinary stress for a community with upwards of 250 million people who continue to battle pervasive discrimination and structural barriers. But even as the community’s education levels and prosperity inch up, many fear their political powers fraying.

In Hyderabad, the All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen faces a stern test. It hasn’t lost the seat in 40 years, but insecurities have been on the boil. And amid the city’s rapid evolution, aspirations have metamorphosed. Will the AIMIM be able to keep its stranglehold on the city, or will the lack of a credible alternative buffer the party’s hopes?

Further south, the Left faces an ideological challenge. Though Kerala may be one of the only states where the Left parties have electoral heft, the Congress’ persistence has proved costly. In many ways, as the Left fades from the rest of the country, Kannur, both emotionally and politically, is one of its proudest, even if last, bastions.

Political legacies

Maharashtra’s politics was rocked by the fractures of the NCP and Shiv Sena, plunging the state into crisis at various points over the past few years, and smashing existing voter-bases. A microcosm of this fight is in Baramati. Sharad Pawar, now chief of the NCP (SP) has been a five-term MP from here, his daughter Supriya has served three terms, his nephew Ajit has been the Baramati MLA for seven terms, and it is a Pawar again who is the rising challenger. Without the family link, it would have been just another town in Maharashtra’s arid hinterland.

Nalanda, known for its ancient laurels, is the sight of Nitish Kumar’s crusade for political relevance. It is at the heart of the social, economic, and ultimately political battle between two visions of Bihar. At stake is not just Kumar’s personal legacy but also the future of the state’s politics. Bihar is a key battleground state for the NDA and the INDIA bloc.

Over in Uttar Pradesh, Amethi and the Congress were, for years, inseparable. But in 2019, Smriti Irani’s victory over Rahul Gandhi rocked the seat’s politics, shaking years of settled electoral bonds. Now, with no Gandhi in the running, a clash between the heart and the mind may dictate how the constituency votes.

The surprises

The standout story of the six phases of voting so far came from Kashmir, which took part in its first major electoral exercise since the abrogation of Article 370 in August 2019. The state voted in large numbers, with turnouts shattering records set decades ago. The truth, HT found, may be more complex – some came to the polls for material benefits, and others out of conviction. Still others pointed out that roughly half the Valley is still not voting even as for the first time in living memory, there is no boycott call by separatist organisations.

In the Maoist citadel of Kanker in Chhattisgarh, violence has gradually dissipated — the result of a combination of creeping markets, road infrastructure, and a paramilitary push. These green shoots of democracy may reflect a new lived reality for a once-troubled region.

West Bengal, meanwhile, is one of the great unknowns of the election exercise, amid a pitched battle between the BJP and incumbent Trinamool Congress. The saffron party’s campaign onslaught in the crucial eastern state has shaken up several long-standing status quos. Within this tussle, discussions around a changing climate are part of roadside adda and tea-stall gossip for the first time in the Sundarbans. 

These stories are just a sample of the Election Pincode series. All 33 stories are available here.