Five Things with HT_ED: The true indicators of development, stock markets and more
Good morning!
ONE
It’s always a jeweller's son, or a real estate developer’s son, or a shady doctor/entrepreneur, usually with political connections.
I know this is a generalisation; there are developers’ children and jewellers' children that turn out just fine; but perhaps because the businesses themselves can sometimes be filled with shades of gray, and perhaps because of the natural nexus (again, this is a generalisation) between such businesses and minor politicians (and sometimes major ones), many children growing up in such households do so with no clear lines between right and wrong.
The deep sense of outrage I feel over the Pune incident is only compounded by the dismay that the young man in question will, one, get away relatively unscathed, two, have his existing belief system reinforced by his escape (which, to his mind, is likely to suggest that pelf and power can help him get away with anything), and three, probably kill again. Anyone who thinks that sounds rash need only look as far as a Central Bureau of Investigation charge sheet against the young man’s grandfather – for hiring a contract killer to do away with a minor politician who, he believed, was the source of strength of his (the grandfather’s) own brother, with whom he (the grandfather) had some property dispute. The minute you start having to clarify pronouns, you know the story is complicated.
The Pune incident is a tragedy at so many levels – a real estate developer’s minor son, who doesn’t have a licence, driving a sports car that is yet to be registered, being served liquor in two places (despite being underage), speeding, and finally killing two young middle-class IT professionals – but it is emblematic of a society where there is clearly no rule of law, at least not for the rich and the powerful or merely the well-connected (emerging details of the botched cover-up, involving two doctors, the killer’s mother, father and grandfather, and, possibly, a minor politician just bear this out).
Just ask alleged serial rapist Prajwal Revanna, who has just been arrested – after the release of the sordid tranche of video clips, enough people have spoken up of how he has been a habitual offender, and perhaps not the only one.
Or just look at another recent incident from Maharashtra, where an illegal billboard (put up by a man who’d been fined tens of times by the local corporation for billboard-related violations) fell on an illegal petrol station killing 17 people.
Or look a little north of Mumbai, at Rajkot, where a recreational centre without the requisite clearances went up in flames, killing 28, or even farther north, at Delhi, where an unlicensed hospital, without requisite clearances again, caught fire, killing seven children.
Think of it – what are the odds? In any rules-based society, the probability of events such as these would be infinitesimally small; after all, they would require a succession of lapses, and venality at almost every level. In India, the fact that such events are common enough for us to momentarily outrage over them, and then get on with our lives till the next incident, is all the proof required that we are not a rules-based society yet. Plus ça change, plus c'est la même chose.
Years ago, I remember writing about how the big lure of e-governance in a country such as India was that it would herald a welcome change from the exception-driven governance that characterises every level of government in India, perhaps necessitated by the inability of inefficient bureaucracies to cope with a high volume of work, but also encouraged by venality.
We are still not there yet – and to my mind, this, rather than a per capita income of $15,000, is an indicator of Viksit Bharat (or developed India).
TWO
Another indicator of a developed country is the strength of its institutions. This is a strength that becomes evident only when the institution is faced with a serious challenge. There again, India has some way to go. Some of its institutions are strong (most of the times). Others, not so. Institutions get their strength in two ways.
One, from the institution itself. I remember a former Reserve Bank of India governor telling me about his first day on the job, and how he felt something within him change when he walked past the portraits of the governors who’d come before him. He ended up becoming one of the best RBI governors India has had.
And the other, from the individuals currently in charge of the institution. An individual with a strong moral compass can turn around an institution; and conversely, a person with a weak one, or none, can ruin a fine institution. The times haven’t been kind to institutions. Today’s sharply polarised society – evident in everything from the polity to social media – means that they are constantly being tested. And constantly coming up short – like the Election Commission of India is. I’m tempted to say it will be difficult for any Election Commission to reap as much ignominy as the current one — but that’s not something I’d put my money on.
THREE
What isn’t coming up short is the stock market. Earlier this week, Sensex, the benchmark index of BSE touched 76,000. While recent commentary has revolved around the performance of the stock markets in the Modi years, it emerges that all but three of the nine governments India has seen since 1991, have delivered positive returns on the Sensex. Of the three, two were flat, and one delivered marginally negative returns. And the best performer was actually the PV Narasimha Rao government (₹1,000 invested in the Sensex at the beginning of its term would have become ₹2,807.6 by the end). The second-best performer was the first UPA government (the ₹1,000 would have become ₹2,710.6). Both the Modi governments have done well too (with ₹1,000 becoming ₹1,611.5 and ₹1,863.4 respectively).
As an edit in HT pointed out, this isn’t surprising because in the long term, markets are “driven more by economic fundamentals and tangible growth in incomes of companies listed on the bourses” and that “on this front, the India story has been one of long-term growth” which is likely to continue and which is “the result of a bipartisan consensus on reforms and policy prudence”.
FOUR
Today, June 1, marks the last phase of polling for the ongoing Lok Sabha elections. The results will be out on June 4, although the exit polls will be out by this evening. For those who want to spend their weekend understanding the factors at play, I’d recommend the treasure trove of data stories our data journalism team headed by Roshan Kishore put together (you can find them all here; and we have made them free to read till June 4, albeit on the HT app) and the superb Election Pincode series anchored by Dhrubo Jyoti that profiled constituencies across the country, each telling a story that’s bigger than the election (you can find them all here). Since the elections were announced, HT’s data team has put out over 50 high-quality analyses of various aspects of the contest; and reporters and writers across the country, over 30 specials for the Pincode series. Happy reading.
FIVE
This election season has been relatively cooler than the, er, season itself. While both the Indian weather office and the minister in question seem to have taken offense at the data in question — a station in Delhi crossing 52°C, a record — the fact is that the city, as measured by the benchmark, the monitor at Safdarjung station, saw a temperature of 46.8°C, the highest in 80 years.
The readings from Mungeshpur (which saw the 52°C plus one) and Najafgarh are probably outliers — both have been consistently clocking high temperatures, even as far back as last year — either because of faulty calibration, or the urban heat island effect, or both.
My advice to both IMD and the minister would be to not fight the data (as has increasingly become the norm) but address the causes.