Decoding India’s 2024 Elections

The results of the just concluded elections in India have been a rude shock to everyone. The ruling BJP-Bhartiya Janta Party missed its mark by a wide margin, though it managed to just squeeze back to power. But that is the way democracies function or are meant to function. Each vote is a voice vote – where all muted voices get heard. Great disasters are great learning too!

The verdict is being delivered loud and clear. To the students of democracy, each election is a textbook. India’s 2024 Parliament elections will also be discussed in all the universities across the world. But what are the factors that led to this rout?

A quick analysis of the patterns of the verdict points to the following significant causes. 

1)        Increased petrol and gas prices: Energy pricing is a sensitive issue in any part of the world. Fuel prices in India have been on the higher side. The government justified it by pointing fingers at places which maintained lower fuel prices and failed economically like Sri Lanka. But an Uber driver or a delivery boy who spends INR 50 extra on fuel every day thinks otherwise. It could have bought his family five eggs or a kilogram of rice.

2)        Inflation: The rising cost of living was a major concern for people, especially when incomes have been stagnating or reducing over the last three years. Food prices have increased. Many states failed to deliver on the public distribution systems.

3)        Joblessness and lack of public sector recruitment: Falling tax revenues had slowed government hiring across the country. The central government too failed to recruit young people. Large job providers like the railways and state electricity corporations have all seen tectonic shifts in technology and a changing priority to green energy. Conventional jobs like grid and track maintenance have seen lower intakes, leading to public resentment. Job creation was not their priority.

4)        No rural investment: Many of the BJP government’s stellar projects were around public infrastructure – like doubling the number of airports and doubling the length of highways. These had nothing to do with semi-urban and rural India. Job creation in the rural areas did not improve. Falling farm revenues made agriculture unviable. The shape of rural economies plays an important role in the public’s perception of governance.

5)        Farmer’s discontent: Farmers face a rise in input costs while they face marketing challenges for their produce. The handling of the farmer’s agitation and the bad press it garnered did not help either. BJP needs a seasoned communicator to engage with the public.

6)        The Agniveer scheme: The armed forces have been seen as a large employer in India. In several northern states, it was a tradition that one member in each house served in the army. The Agniveer scheme toppled all this. The idea of a discharge after the mandated four-year stint in the armed forces followed by life-long anxiety was not palatable to a large section of India’s youth.

7)        Arrogance of BJP leaders: Several leaders who stood tall on Modi’s shoulders misbehaved with the public and the press. The perceived arrogance in their tone and their non-reconciliatory stance on trivial issues led to bad PR. The BJP should have handled people like Brij Bhushan Singh carefully. In politics, the people are always right. Perception is the only reality.

8)        An overplay of the religious divide: Religion is a magic wand in any democracy. But its overplay leads people to think twice, even thrice. Minority appeasement as an election strategy was perfected by the Congress party. But there has been no evidence to prove that majority appeasement can work in the BJP’s favour. An analysis of the past election results will prove this point.

9)        Temples don’t feed people: The Ram Mandir was okay. Digging up the basements of all the mosques in the country doesn’t help feed the people. The Hindus may rightly believe that they have been wronged by centuries of Islamist rule. But it cannot be undone today. The way out to restore Hindu pride is to become a modern country, a dazzling economy and a technology hub, which Modi’s government got right. However, the perception of the BJP as temple diggers and the ensuing mudslinging between communities did great damage to the image of the country.

The common man of this country is looking for an opportunity to earn a living with dignity. In the third term, Modi and his government should focus on enabling people to live their dreams. He should wear the hat of a visionary once more. Renaming cities doesn’t change their histories. The job in hand is to script future histories! Let us all get down to work.

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