Everything You Always Wanted to Know About Tesla Q4s* (*But Were Afraid to Ask Where The Best Digest Was)

If you're bothering to read this, it seems a fairly safe bet that you're interested in Tesla.

So, although there is other, even quite important, EV news out there that EV inFocus been covering, the thrust of is this article is what we leaned from Tesla 's Q4s at the end of last week. Because, we thought, who wouldn't want a ready reckoner with the NINE biggest themes coming out of Tesla results in one place.

You might also, if you read a lot about Tesla, have seen numerous journalists complaining that the firm doesn't deign to have a press office to answer our questions. And, understandably, you probably haven't cared that much — it is unlikely to affect your working life and, heck, it's not as if the reputation of the Fourth Estate is exactly at its highest right now.

But it is one of the things that makes Tesla quarterlies so important — even beyond the firm's outsized position in the wider EV market. The firm has to answer questions. And even those posed by analysts and stockholders are hugely useful in the absence of any ability to ask our own.

It does, though, mean that, unlike most other companies, if one picks up implications from what is said in a conference call, one has to run with it based on best information available. If Tesla doesn't like this, I'd humbly suggest it ups levels of engagement.

Cybertruck disappointment?

Take actual Cybertruck sales, for example. The EV inFocus take — based on something that Tesla vice-president, supply chain Karn Budhiraj said on the call — is really not that many, certainly a lot fewer than many people are expecting.

We lay out our reasons for that call here. Let us know if you agree or disagree — as discussed Tesla's lack of two-way communication makes this very much an exercise in rune reading.

No Mexico plant before 20230s?

Here's another overlooked point buried in Tesla's Q&A: its view on the timing for its Mexico plant that will be the second to build its so-called 'Model 2' mass-market BEV.

Tesla execs studiously avoided any dates. But they quite explicitly laid out the timeline: get production up-and-running at Giga Texas (from late 2025, maybe, although Musk openly jokes about how over-optimistic his timescales have been so far). Then scale to production, ironing out all the wrinkles as they emerge.

Then, with all these learnings, start to build (our bold) Mexico. You can find out what all the clues on that schedule led to in terms of a start date for any Mexican plant here. But, spoiler alert(!), it doesn't start 202...

Wage spike increase

Obviously, one of the big grumbles about Tesla's Q4s in the investor community has been lack of margin outlook. Analyst Daniel Ives of Wedbush memorably complained to CNBC that, rather than Tesla "putting a line in the sand for margins", we got instead a conference call that was a "circus show" and "went off the rails".

So margin concern is clearly well-flagged. But we are slightly surprised to see relatively little interest in Tesla's admission about the impact of the wage increases it has agreed — most likely in an effort to stave off the threat of unionisation — on its cost base.

Vaibhav Taneja , the firm's finance chief, explicitly links a renewed effort to shave costs wherever it can to the pressures that wage inflation will ratchet up. So we definitely think that is worth greater investigation (and would ask some follow-ups to a press office, for sure!).

Musk's mood

One of the other key elements of Tesla results calls is getting the divining rods out to monitor how its mercurial CEO is feeling. Our verdict from listening last week: mixed.

There are some things he's clearly enthused about, like Tesla's unique ability to withstand Chinese competition while other Western OEMs topple like ninepins.

Or Tesla's ability to grow in markets in which it has not really made a dent yet, like Japan. Although it was almost amusing to listen to the lack of enthusiasm about the start of Tesla advertising — albeit still infused with the bravado that it's got amazing results so far!

But, overall, his mood seemed, well, as pessimistic about the near term as it was in Q3. Which probably fed into the analyst frustrations.

There was also quite a dose of paranoia, particularly as he expanded more on the reasoning for his desire to engineer some sort of preferential voting stock to give him the 25pc control he demands.

Is changing the name of a shareholder advisory firm to that of a terrorist organisation slightly refreshing in a world of bland quarterly calls? It might be, actually. Is it really something a CEO should do on such an occasion? That could have a different answer.

Mixed messages

'The fear' was in evidence again as Musk debated whether Tesla could ever run its AI or Battery Days again in their previous form, given the potential for rivals to use to them to steal Tesla's "special sauce".

But, as is so often the case with Musk, this was infused with some vaulting optimism. The machines being developed to make the new Model 2 are so advanced that Tesla is getting them built-to-order, so no rival will have anywhere from where to buy them and Tesla's lead will be intact, he enthuses.

His view on Tesla's Dojo platform was similarly dualist. On the one hand, Nvidia is there ready to supply Tesla with what it needs if Dojo doesn't work, because Dojo is a moonshot.

On the other hand, if Dojo works, it'll be massive. This almost puppy-dog enthusiasm is Musk at his most endearing. It is just a pity when one then remembers that any further interrogation of this upside won't be possible for another while.

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