Stay ahead of potential risks and ensure the safety of your employees with Friday Risk Watch, a weekly newsletter curated by our Global Intelligence Team.
Expect updates on emerging risks, geopolitical developments, weather forecasts, etc. We’ll notify you of the latest incidents that could impact your organization, allowing you to make informed decisions and mitigate potential risks.
What We’re Watching
First Tropical Storm Threat of Atlantic, Gulf Hurricane Season: The first legitimate disturbance of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season will likely organize across the Southwest Gulf of Mexico and Bay of Campeche. Those along Mexico’s Gulf Coast and South Texas should closely monitor forecasts over the next week.
As of Friday morning, the National Hurricane Center identified a medium threat of tropical storm formation west of the Yucatan Peninsula over the next seven days.
From Monday afternoon to Wednesday, forecast models predict that low pressure or disturbed weather will develop as it moves northwest from Central America. With water temperatures at 86°F (30°C), light wind shear, and ample moisture, a tropical depression or minimal named storm may form if a center of circulation forms far enough from the Mexican coast.
Whether or not the early-week system becomes a depression or named storm, it will likely bring torrential rain, landslides in hilly areas, and coastal gale-force wind gusts, particularly near Veracruz and Tamaulipas. It's too early to rule out potential rainfall impacts in Southern Texas.
Mexico urgently needs rainfall, with over 80% of the country still in drought. While the upcoming weather will benefit many, excessive rain could cause significant local impacts.
Excessive Heat Will Build Over Eastern U.S. This Weekend Through Next Week: Hot and humid summer weather is typical in the Eastern United States in late June. However, a change in the national weather pattern will bring above-normal and excessive heat in the next few weeks. Residents and businesses vulnerable to high temperatures should closely monitor local trends.
This weekend, the first phase of an extended heat wave will hit the Southeast and Midwest. Temperatures near Atlanta and Birmingham will reach 97-99°F, with mid to upper 90s as far north as northern Missouri and Illinois.
From Monday to Wednesday, June 17-19, the greatest temperature departures from normal will move into the Ohio Valley and Northeast. By Wednesday afternoon, expect highs in the mid to upper 90s along I-95, including Washington DC, Baltimore, Philadelphia, New York City, and Boston.
For June 20-24, the Climate Prediction Center has identified excessive heat risk for at least 21 states in the Central and Eastern United States. The most affected regions include the Midwest, Mid-Atlantic, and Northeast.
Amtrak warned passengers of expected heat-related travel delays this summer. Heat-triggered airport ground stops were frequent in 2023, and more could occur in the coming days. Local municipalities will likely open cooling shelters for residents without air conditioning.
Widespread Protest Activity Across France Ahead of Snap Elections: (Note: A few of the following links are in French.)Expect disruptions across France through Sunday due to demonstrations against the National Rally (RN) political party's breakthrough in last weekend’s European Parliament elections. Thousands have protested against the RN since the start of the week, with clashes between demonstrators and police reported in cities including Paris, Toulouse, Nantes, and Lyon.
AlertMedia has identified nearly 100 scheduled demonstrations this weekend. Major actions on Saturday include Paris (Place de la République at 2 pm), Marseille (Vieux-Port at 2 pm), Toulouse (Place Jean Jaurès at 2 pm), and Nice (Place Massena at 11 am).
President Emmanuel Macron called for snap elections following EU election results, sparking protest activity from citizens frustrated with his Renaissance party. The first round of parliamentary elections is scheduled for June 30 and the second round on July 7.
A mix of unions, civic organizations, and political parties, including a new “Popular Front” coalition, are behind the wave of protests. The alliance is expected to continue mobilizing supporters through the upcoming elections.
Pilgrims Make Their Way to Mecca for Annual Hajj: Expect travel disruptions and heightened security in Saudi Arabia today through Thursday, June 19, as around 2 million Muslims brave extreme heat to perform the Hajj. Authorities anticipate higher numbers than last year, nearing pre-pandemic levels when around 1.8 million pilgrims participated.
Expect ports of entry into the country, particularly in Jeddah and Medina, to be significantly busier than usual. Upon arrival, travelers will proceed by road or rail to Mecca, as there are no direct flights to the city. Light rail trains, especially at Arafat and Muzdalifah, are typically overwhelmed during this period.
There is a terrorism threat in Saudi Arabia, along with risks of stampedes and crowd crushes. Officials have heightened security measures, especially around ritual sites, and plan to deny unauthorized vehicles from entering holy sites during the pilgrimage. Cybersecurity firms have also warned about a potential rise in hacking attacks.
Saudi Arabia's Ministry of Health has cautioned that the heat will pose a significant challenge for this year’s pilgrims. Temperatures are expected to reach at least 111°F, several degrees higher than the usual average. Last year's Hajj recorded over 8,000 cases of heat-related stress, though this figure is likely underestimated.
During Hajj, Muslim pilgrims pray around the Kabah in Mecca, Saudi Arabia.
Euro 2024 Kicks Off in Germany, Authorities Prepare for Security Risks: The 2024 UEFA European Football Championship (Euro 2024) tournament kicks off in Germany today and will continue until July 14, with 50 matches in 10 cities. The England-Serbia match taking place in Gelsenkirchen on Sunday has been flagged as “high risk” by German authorities.
Extensive security measures have been implemented in and around Euro 2024 stadiums. The German government plans to deploy between 800 and 1,300 police officers at each match. Temporary controls have been established at all German borders. Police anticipate a rise in crime during the tournament, including potential theft and cyberattacks.
Authorities continue to face the threat of attacks by extremist groups. Officials bolstered security during Champions League matches across Europe after the Islamic State threatened several venues online. The region remains on high alert following a terror attack at a Moscow concert hall in March.
Authorities are monitoring demonstration activity, particularly by climate and pro-Palestine activist groups. Rioting is also a concern, with crowds taking to the streets after previous matches.
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