From the Forecast: July 7 - French parliamentary runoff elections

What's happened so far 

The first round of voting saw the far-right Rassemblement National (RN) win roughly 33 percent of votes, with the leftist New Popular Front (NFP) coalition trailing behind with 28 percent and President Emmanuel Macron’s own Ensemble centrist voting bloc slightly surpassing 21 percent. The snap elections, which Macron called following his party’s defeat at the European Parliamentary elections, saw the highest turnout for a National Assembly vote since 1997.

Given that no voting bloc approached a majority of the vote, 501 out of 577 constituencies have not yet chosen their deputy. In particular, the high turnout produced a record number of 306 “triangular” constituencies, where three parties reached the vote threshold to advance. 

The impact 

While most polling indicates that RN will not be able to form a majority in the National Assembly, it remains possible if French voters continue to rebel against increased immigration rates and social spending reforms. While RN have undoubtedly moderated their more extreme — and anti-semitic — stances since the days of Jean Marie Le Pen, the specter of 28-year-old RN leader Jordan Bardella becoming prime minister has in part united the country’s leftists and centrists.

Out of the 306 triangular constituencies, 210 saw the third place NFP or Ensemble candidate withdraw from the race. Macron’s decision to call a legislative election seems to have backfired, with the most likely outcomes either being a RN-controlled coalition with the Les Republicains party, or an ungovernable tripolar legislature with no majority voting block.

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