What was at stake for France after Sunday's Legislative election?

Yesterday marked the crucial final day of voting for the snap elections in France. The country witnessed its highest voter turnout in decades, as the French nearly witnessed a significant shift in their country's political landscape. The snap elections in France produced the most fragmented parliament since Charles de Gaulle founded the Fifth Republic, in a shocking twist of fate. The French parliamentary elections feature two rounds of voting. The two-round, majority-voting system was created to reduce political uncertainty and contain the extremes.   

The first round of voting happened on June 30 and the National Rally party won. Many people believed they could perform well in the second round. However, after the second round of voting on July 7, official results strongly suggested that the New Popular Front came first. President Macron's party, the Ensemble alliance, came in second place, followed by the National Rally party.

It is important to understand that, just like the UK parliament, the French parliament is made up of seats. When people vote for a candidate, they are voting for the candidate to have a seat in the parliament, which is called the National Assembly in France.

The National Assembly has 577 seats, but to rule, a party needs to secure 289 of them, which is more seats than all the other parties put together. Despite possessing the most seats, the New Popular Front alliance lacks sufficient seats to constitute a majority. When a situation arises wherein no particular party obtains more seats than all other parties taken together, it is referred to as a hung parliament. This means that the party with the most votes needs help from another party to make laws. In the event of a hung parliament, parties would be required to collaborate to attain a majority. The New Popular Front alliance, the party that emerged victorious in France, consists of diverse political parties that have been grouped together.

The system failed to achieve the first objective, resulting in a new parliament with a hung parliament, which is divided into three comparable groups. This arrangement will ensure that any new government is constantly under threat of no-confidence votes. It was only partially successful in preventing the ascendancy of the far-right National Rally (RN) to power, despite its rapid expansion in parliamentary seats from eight to over 120 between 2017 and 2024.

The decisive game changer, however, was the leftist New Popular Front coalition, which came together a few days before the first round of voting. Even though Macron first tried to vilify and then split the NFP, this continued. His camp's disagreement over tactical voting was responsible for the rift within Ensemble and the diminution of his influence over his own parliamentary group.

Despite losing half of its seats and a high turnout (66.6%), Emmanuel Macron's Ensemble performance showed that the RN doesn't have the support of the majority of the population. Despite this, the far right has become a norm in French politics. Even mainstream cable news channels and newspapers are echoing its ideas and terminology, and its historic number of seats is barely making waves.

The most hopeful scenario is that the NFP stays together, even though there are differences within the party. They can also get support from the left wing of Ensemble and form a government. Ensemble could create a government if it keeps its unity and finds an agreement with conservative Les Républicains and independent centrists. Both of these options would be difficult for the French political system because it doesn't have a culture of making compromises and working together. Their vulnerability could result in a vote of no-confidence. France is therefore at a high risk of political impasse, with a weakened and isolated president and a rudderless parliament.

Reaction from within its borders

After Marine Le Pen's far-right party failed to win a snap election on Monday, many of France's allies all over Europe breathed a sigh of relief. However, they also noted that a messy coalition from a hung parliament could also cause a headache for Europe. Le Pen's National Rally was expected to dominate the polls, raising the risk that France would have its first far-right government since World War Two. This move had the potential to alter France's economic and foreign policy. 

Ukraine's allies were concerned that a Le Pen-led government could be lenient towards Moscow and curtail the military assistance that Kyiv has relied on since the Russian invasion in 2022, despite her party's subsequent declaration that Russia posed a threat. The National Rally's defeat signalled at least a temporary stop to a far-right surge in Europe, but it could also mean a period of instability with a new government that is uncomfortable with President Emmanuel Macron. 

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz expressed relief that Macron did not have to accommodate Le Pen. Vice Chancellor Robert Habeck also praised efforts to prevent a drift towards nationalism and thereby move Europe into further isolation. The Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk also emitted a positive stance by asserting that there was enthusiasm in Paris, disappointment in Moscow, and relief in Kyiv. 

Nikos Androulakis, the leader of Greece's Socialist PASOK party, also expressed similar sentiments, saying that the French people had raised a wall against the far right, racism, and intolerance and had guarded the timeless principles of the French.

Meanwhile, Le Pen's party was slated to join a newly formed alliance in the European Parliament, headed by Hungary's Prime Minister Viktor Orban, with the stated aim of combating illegal immigration and reclaiming authority from Brussels.

A spokesperson for the new Prime Minister of Britain, Keir Starmer, referred to France as one of the closest partners of the United Kingdom, stating that he would collaborate with any government.

In the past, Le Pen expressed admiration for President Vladimir Putin. Russian spokesperson Dmitry Peskov stated that Russia is closely monitoring the formation of a new French government with keen interest. However, he added that “the victory of political forces that would be supporters of efforts to restore our bilateral relations is definitely better for Russia, but so far, we do not see such bright political will in anyone, so we do not harbour any special hopes or illusions in this regard.”

Other far-right politicians expressed their dissatisfaction with the outcome of the French elections.

Claudio Borghi, a senator from Italy's right-wing League party, said, “the government will crash soon. Poor France can console itself with Kylian Mbappé.” referring to the France soccer star.

Andre Ventura, the leader of Portugal's Chega party, described the outcome as a "disaster for the economy, a tragedy for immigration, and detrimental to the fight against corruption."

A report by Capital Economics suggested that France may have avoided the worst possible outcomes for investors if there had been an absolute majority for either Le Pen or the leftists. It said that a fractious parliament means that it will be difficult for any government to pass the budget cuts that France needs to comply with the EU's budget rules. Furthermore, the chances of France's government clashing with the EU over fiscal policy have increased now that the bloc's budget rules have been re-introduced.

As of present, certain political parties in France have expressed their disapproval towards certain in