What does the future of democracy, good governance, and economic growth look like in Africa?

Anyone who’s been following the discourse on African development has likely noticed that the rise of China, and the economic performance of some authoritarian ‘developmental’ African states have largely left most ‘Washington consensus’ proponents tight-lipped before the obvious backsliding of democracy in many African countries. The state department seems to have relegated the promotion of democracy to the least of its priorities, and China continues to overlook the poor record of civil liberties and human rights in many of its African partners. Europe’s biggest worry is migration across the Mediterranean, and as long African leaders promise to cooperate to stop migrants from crossing over to Europe, it seems to care less whether its African partners are democratic or whether they bear the responsibility for the emigration of their citizens.

International Development organization-most of which are headquartered in Washington DC- seem to care more about aggregate economic growth than democracy and human rights. In fact, one might wonder whether democracy is the political system development experts still believe can deliver the stability, good governance and economic growth that the continent still desperately need. Given the challenges democratic institutions are facing in the West, are proponents of democracy having second thoughts? The truth remains that most Africans still prefer democracy to any other political system, and that it is still the best system (we know) that delivers material progress, general well-being, and human flourishing.

African political and economic outlook.

Some two-thirds of all respondents (67%) in a survey done by Afrobarometer say that democracy is always preferable. But the democracy outlook on the continent is as heterogeneous as its genetic, cultural and linguistic make-up. Half of all African states are autocracies (36% hardline, 14% moderate), while the other half are democracies (5% consolidating, 34% defective, 11% highly defective), according to the BTI 2018-Regional Report Africa. And the situation became even more striking between 2015 and 2017 as Africa’s autocratic countries became more repressive, while its more democratic states experienced relatively little change.

Economic performance was also as diverse. East Africa recorded the fastest rate of growth (5.1% in 2016 and 5.4% in 2017), North Africa grew at 3.1% in 2016, Southern Africa (0.9 in 2016 from 1.9% in 2015), Central Africa (0.4), and West Africa (0.5%) because Nigeria accounts for almost ¾ of West Africa’s GDP. The remainder of West Africa grew at 6% in 2016. Commodity exporters dragged overall growth across the continent, making economic diversification an even more urgent IMPERATIVE.

Democracy experienced an unfortunate relapse from the mid-2000s, and the symptoms of the regress include the removal of presidential term-limits, poor quality elections, and the introduction of legislation that enabled the government to exert greater control over social media and non-governmental organizations (Rakner 2018).

Does democracy lead to economic growth?

Recent research has found that on average Africa’s democracies grow at a faster rate than its autocracies, and that this “democratic advantage” is more pronounced among countries that have been democracies for longer (Masaki and van de Walle 2014). As for good governance, the recent BTI 2018-Regional Report Africa found that “ not a single hardline or moderate autocracy is ranked as having ‘good’ or ‘very good’ governance during the period 2015-2017”, and that the two countries considered to have developed or functioning economies were both consolidating democracies: Botswana and Mauritius. Although, some authoritarian states like Rwanda and Uganda score above average in economic transformation and moderate in good governance, these are exceptions to the rule.

Glimmerings of Hope?

Some cheerful trends should spark some optimism in the believers of Africa’s democratic destiny. In most African states, urban voters, younger voters, and voters with a secondary or a post-secondary education are more likely to demand democracy, and more willing to vote for alternatives to the ruling party than their older, more rural, and less educated counterparts. Expansion of education, growing penetration of mobile phones with internet capacity, and rapid urbanization will likely result in increased demand for democracy and falling support for poorly performing governments. While rapid urbanization is a double-edged sword, the growth in the urban electorate – which is projected to be greater than the total number of rural voters before 2050 – compounded with the increasing urgency for citizens to demand better public services and accountable leaders, could potentially lead to greater democratization in the longer-term. Quasi-fortuitous transfers of power in Burkina Faso, Gambia and Nigeria have showed that the continent can be full of promising surprises. As Europe struggles to curb migration across the Mediterranean, young ambitious yet dissatisfied Africans might push for change. Sadly, this youth bulge and the increasing visible impact of climate change will likely (God Forbid) make things worse before they get better.