ITK Daily | November 22

Happy Tuesday.

Here’s today’s ITK Daily.

To be ITK, know this:

Insights | Geopolitical Business Communications | Matras + Environment + Ideas + Execution: Here's a link to the deck I am presenting to a Georgetown University international trade and economic diplomacy class this morning. Access the deck here.

AP: Indonesian quake kills at least 162 and injures hundreds

El Salvador takes risks for Chinese investments: Following the devaluation of cryptocurrencies, a free trade deal with China could benefit El Salvador economically. But some fear that it puts the country's sovereignty up for sale. DW

Hong Kong’s leader John Lee tested positive for COVID, days after he was next to Xi Jinping on two occasions.

China turns to back-channel diplomacy to shore up US ties: With Xi Jinping’s blessing, a Chinese delegation of policy advisers and executives met with a US counterpart group ahead of the Biden-Xi summit. WSJ

+ The Chinese People’s Institute of Foreign Affairs, the Foreign Ministry-affiliated think tank, was named as the organizer of the group—whose members, according to the people, include Cui Tiankai, Beijing’s former top envoy to Washington, Chen Deming, ex-commerce minister, and Ning Jizhe, former vice minister at China’s top economic-planning agency.

+ The Chinese and US groups held discussions at CV Starr’s headquarters on Park Avenue on November 10 and the next day, with 13 members from each side participating.

+ Among the Americans were Greenberg, Paul Fribourg, CEO of agribusiness ContiGroup Cos., former US Sen. Joe Lieberman, and two former US ambassadors to Beijing: Max Baucus, a former Democratic senator from Montana, and Terry Branstad, the former Republican governor of Iowa.

+ Senior aides to Greenberg said the Biden administration had been briefed on the exchanges between the American and Chinese groups under the initiative, dubbed the “Morefar Project,” named after a secluded estate upstate New York used by Greenberg to entertain government and business leaders.

Caracal flashback: Less wolf. More panda: Xi told senior Communist Party leaders on May 31, 2021, that the country must "make friends extensively, unite the majority, and continuously expand its circle of friends with those who understand and are friendly to China," according to the official XInhua News Agency . Full post here.

Why Xi bullied Trudeau but flattered Albanese Peter Hartcher

China’s population grew by just 480,000 to 1.4126 billion last year, and demographers say a national decline appears inevitable as the birth rate falls and people live longer.

China’s Sinopec International Petroleum Service Corporation has secured one of the biggest-ever liquefied natural gas deals, signing a 27-year agreement to purchase 4mn tonnes a year of the fuel from QatarEnergy .

Japan added two more vessels to its fleet of Aegis-equipped destroyers, raising to eight the number of ships capable of intercepting ballistic missiles.

Japan builds case to dissolve scandal-hit Unification Church: Victims speak up ahead of a probe into the issue with broad societal implications. Nikkei

Los Angeles Mayor Eric Garcetti, who leaves office in less than a month, is pushing hard for the US Senate to confirm his appointment as ambassador to India.

Crimea: Reports suggest Ukrainian troops will move on the annexed peninsula by the end of December.

Meet Europe’s coming military superpower: Poland: Warsaw is turning to major arms deals with South Korea to establish supremacy in Continental Europe. Politico

+ Poland’s longstanding distrust of all things Russian and the current government’s deep antipathy toward Moscow triggered concern from Brussels to Berlin that Warsaw might do something rash.

+ “The Polish army must be so powerful that it does not have to fight due to its strength alone,” Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki said on the eve of Poland’s independence day.

+ “Poland has become our most important partner in continental Europe,” a senior US Army officer in Europe said, citing the crucial role Poland has played in supporting Ukraine and in shoring up NATO defenses in the Baltics.

Bloomberg: Germany to deploy patriot missiles to defend Polish airspace

+ Poland wants missiles to be stationed near the border with Ukraine

+ German, Polish agreement follows strike that killed two people

Why can't Germany break up with nuclear energy? Germany has spent 25 years flip-flopping on nuclear power. An energy crunch caused by the war in Ukraine is the latest reason to reconsider the technology. DW

Russia has already lost more than 90% of its oil and gas market in the European Union's northern countries, previously the mainstay of shipments from the Baltic and Arctic terminals.

OPEC+ eyes output increase ahead of restrictions on Russian oil: WSJ reports raising oil production would partially reverse the group’s contested decision to cut supplies in October.

Inside the Saudi strategy to keep the world hooked on oil: The kingdom is working to keep fossil fuels at the center of the world economy for decades to come by lobbying, funding research, and using its diplomatic muscle to obstruct climate action. NYT

EV battery heavyweights revive city’s dream of factory glory: General Motors , Vale, and BASF are among companies won over by Canadian ambitions to create a North American battery hub. Bloomberg

+ Becancour is drawing corporate giants to the French-speaking Canadian province with its ambitions to make this industrial outpost, halfway between Montreal and Quebec City, a key gear for an EV battery supply chain to serve the continent.

AP: NASA - National Aeronautics and Space Administration capsule buzzes moon, last big step before lunar orbit

George Lois, visionary art director, is dead at 91: He brought the counterculture to advertising and designed memorable covers for Esquire magazine, many of them wordless critiques of American society. NYT

WP: The Walt Disney Company brings Robert Iger back as CEO in stunning shakeup

Robert Iger returns as Disney CEO as Bob Chapek is outsted: Iger will run the entertainment company he left only late last year; the company’s stock price shot up in premarket trading. WSJ

The cashmere prince is back: Bob Iger returns to Disney, but some say he never really left Fortune

+ Rebellion by senior staff hastened the reinstatement of predecessor Bob Iger.

+ Walt Disney Co. will pay Bob Iger about $27 million annually for returning as the chief executive officer under a new two-year deal.

Was this $100 billion deal the worst merger ever? At Time Warner, executives saw AT&T as just a “big phone company from Texas.” At AT&T, they thought Hollywood would play by their rules. That combination led to strategic miscalculation unrivaled in recent corporate history. NYT

Fortune: The Wharton School Professor Jeremy Siegel says stocks will soar 20% next year as inflation fades—but legendary investor Bill Ackman says not so fast

+ Siegel says 90% of US inflation is already gone

Vertical farming needs to grow more than salad: Indoor agriculture promises to massively reduce the water and land needed to support crops. But at the moment, it only works for a tiny percentage of foods. Wired

Domino's Pizza will have 855 custom-branded Chevrolet Bolt electric vehicles on US roadways delivering pizza by the end of 2023.

DotLA: Apple , Google plan West LA expansion amid the largest tech layoff since the dot-com bubble burst

Best books of 2022: Business FT

Ben Affleck + Matt Damon have raised $100 million to start an independent film production company.

Last year only 698 baby girls were named Alexa in the US, the lowest figure since 1986.

Bob Weir keeps the Grateful Dead alive — and always evolving WP

French band Phoenix masters the art of rebirth: The French group, who recorded their seventh album, 'Alpha Zulu,' in a wing of the Louvre, will be in concert at the Olympia in Paris on November 28 and 29. Le Monde

Back in April 2010, I caught Sting at Olympia in Paris. The hall was opened in 1893 by one of the two co-creators of the Moulin Rouge venue and seats 2,800 for concerts. Amazing venue.

This World Cup is wired and fueled by AI: At the FIFA World Cup Qatar 2022 , everything from stadium temperatures to the soccer balls are run on sensors and algorithms. Pranshu Verma

+ The official match ball, made by Adidas, will have motion sensors inside. The sensor will report precise location data on the ball 500 times per second, according to the company, helping referees make more precise calls.

+ Command and control centers in Qatar will rely on more than 15,000 cameras to track people’s movements throughout the games, Qatari officials told Agence France-Presse in August.

Desperate for growth, aging casino company embraced ‘degenerate gambler’: David Portnoy, who has a history of misogynistic and racist behavior, is now a public spokesman for the sports-betting industry. NYT

American Sargeant to race for Williams in 2023: AFP reports American rookie Logan Sargeant will drive for Williams Racing next season, the British Formula One team confirmed on Monday.

+ After just one season in Formula Two, Sargeant will take a seat alongside Thai driver Alex Albon having secured enough points in the final F2 race of the season in Abu Dhabi to earn his license for the top tier.

+ The 21-year-old has come through the Williams academy and learned his trade mainly in Europe in karting and F3.

Detroit Lions have the longest active winning streak in the NFC at 3 games.

Enjoy the ride + plan accordingly.

-Marc

Caracal produces ITK Daily.

Caracal is a geopolitical business communications firm specializing in global business issues at the intersection of globalization, disruption, and politics.

Caracal believes that to be a world-class geopolitical business communicator, you need global street smarts coupled with holistic, high-frequency, and high-low communications.

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