NATIONALISM POST-APPLAUSE

The reaction to the attacks by the Arakan Rohingya Salvation Army (ARSA) in northern Rakhine, Myanmar on 25 August, and the security forces’ response, attest to the potency and the use of nationalism in this country. 497,000 Muslim Rohingyas have fled to neighbouring Bangladesh, amid accounts of terrible atrocities unleashed upon them. A train of international consequences has been set in motion, and now seven countries have asked the UN secretary-general Guterres for a public briefing on what is seen as a disproportionate response by Myanmar. The word genocide is being used.

Mercifully up to now, the violence has been limited to volatile Rakhine state (unlike in 2012). This does not mean that there is no fear of more terrorist attacks. Beside the massive scale of the Rohingya exodus and accompanying suffering, the other significant development is the outpouring of anti-Rohingya sentiment in Myanmar. It is hard to quantify, although there have been a number of public rallies. What is certain is that divisions have widened further on this issue, and voices speaking out against the Rohingya have become even more strident. It follows that the major political players in Myanmar are benefiting and capitalizing on this. It is remarked that the present crisis has united the ruling party, the military and the public – although on the last it may not be so sweeping.

ARSA is a relatively new organization and reportedly has links to other Islamist terror groups. There are also analyses of the involvement of regional powers and economic considerations such as rare minerals and special economic zones. In her speech on 19 September (finally billed as a ‘diplomatic briefing’) state counselor Aung San Su Kyi said that the people who have fled will be taken back after a ‘verification process’. Whatever that means, it promises to be messy as well as lengthy.

Domestically both the ruling NLD government and the military have tasted the flavor of increased public support. What really counts for them is not the racist overtones but the votes that it can bring in the next elections. Myanmar’s ethnic diversity sits uneasily with a Bamar Buddhist majority that is increasingly chauvinistic and intolerant. With an antiquated first-past-the-post electoral system, the politicians and generals know very well that if you have the ethnic and religious majority sewn up, you don’t have to bother much about the minorities. (This was the lesson of the BJP and prime minister Modi in India).

But with Myanmar’s added predicament of a 70-year civil armed conflict, electoral victories do not assure the return of peace. Relying upon majoritarian politics and mono-ethnic nationalism can actually deter a peace settlement with the ethnic nationalities and by extension, the hoped-for federal system. True, the current hard-edged racism is directed against the hapless Rohingya and secondly against Muslims in general. But it is delusional to expect that this unfettered racism will stop there. It should be noted here that most ‘indigenous’ ethnic organizations are largely silent on the ongoing crisis.

I would even say that nation-building in Myanmar and the search for a national identity – never strong to begin with – have implicitly suffered another setback. It is not only in elections; Naypyidaw and the armed forces will become entrenched as Bamar Buddhist strongholds (they are already close to it). For those who are comfortable with this, the downside is that other ethnic nationalisms shall become stronger too, more assertive, and opposed by reaction to the majority wave. The ultimate result will not be an integrated nation but a balance of ethnic nationalisms. Most likely at odds with one another.

The central lesson of all nationalist projects is this: if you push nationalism too hard, there is always a blowback. Coming down hard on the Rohingya may give you a shade of domestic popularity and a better chance at the next elections. But this exclusion, intolerance, insensitivity and downright racism will drag you down in the long run. Remorselessly.

29 September