Navigating a future of 10 cross-sectoral forces in agriculture

When people talk about the impacts of climate change on agriculture, they usually use the future tense. But the reality is that climate change already is, and has been, changing global conditions enough to cause meaningful shifts in agricultural production. 

Case in point: where Florida was once known both nationally and globally as the US’s only citrus powerhouse, today the groves are moving North. Farmers in Georgia-- like Lindy Savelle, our most recent podcast guest-- are starting to establish citrus production in entirely new regions.

This is happening around the world. Marine heatwaves and ocean acidification are moving the location of fisheries. Rising sea levels are threatening sugarcane in Australia and Fiji. And temperature changes are shifting the behavior of pathogens, making entire industries unviable in their current location, yet compelling in others. 

Catalysts beyond climate change

Beyond climate change, there are many other catalysts for changes in what, where, and how we produce food and fiber. 

Social media-fueled activism is threatening not just practices, but the viability of entire industries. Technology and policy developments across everything from energy to synthetic biology are opening up entirely new markets that will challenge the economics of commodity production while creating opportunities for new value chains, jobs, and industries.

The far reaching impact of systemic changes to production

As these complex social, environmental, technological, and economic drivers intersect and accelerate, we’ll see far more than just incremental shifts in how agriculture industries function-- entire production paradigms will be challenged. 

Along the value chain, we’ll see opportunities and pressures to adapt and innovate. 

• New identities: the identity of what it means to be a primary producer will evolve beyond commodity-based definitions (“I’m a first generation solar farmer and third generation mixed farmer and….”) 
• New infrastructure: we’ll have to grapple with stranded assets in some locations, while trying to fund and establish new value chain infrastructure in others
• New institutions: established institutions, like research and advocacy, will face existential questions about the efficacy of their current commodity-based segmentation
• New skill sets: new skills and training approaches will be required to manage increasingly complex enterprise mixes 

To grow citrus in Georgia, Lindy faced several of these challenges. She had to introduce new practices, explore new technologies, and even invest in building physical and social infrastructure for the broader industry. It was far from easy, and there was often pushback. 

“Citrus is not traditional at all here. Matter of fact, when we first started, people kind of laughed at us. They scoffed at us and said, no, you can't grow citrus in Georgia.”

Navigating a Future of 10 Cross-Sectoral Forces

This shift from incremental to systemic changes in production systems is just one of 10 forces  impacting agriculture that we investigate in our latest report, Navigating a Future of Cross-Sectoral Forces, commissioned by AgriFutures Australia . 

The other nine include:

The rise of artificial intelligence Artificial intelligence is poised to trigger major, unpredictable changes in the way that rural sectors operate — from customer integration to risk mitigation.

Mandatory climate disclosures Climate and nature-related disclosures are no longer a ‘nice to have’ as bodies – from trade regulators to financial institutions – consider them when determining factors like market access, interest rates, insurance premium costs and mortgage eligibility.

Radically accessible remote production data Accessible remote information, such as satellite imagery, combined with the ease of information sharing creates opportunities for rural industries to better share their story; however, others are also able to disseminate stories that may lack context. 

Geoengineering advances Tools to alter regional temperature, precipitation, and other environmental factors will impact rural industries, however the ethics, impact and economics of this are still to be determined.

Global conflict and deglobalization shift trade trends While there remains considerable demand for both raw commodities and finished goods, conditions have become more precarious in recent years, making demand from key partners less predictable and at risk of severe price fluctuations and market access concerns.

Growing risks from climate, human and animal interactions Humans, agriculture, and wildlife will interact more, potentially leading to a greater incidence of disease outbreak and other pressures where improved detection and prevention is crucial.

Escalation of cybersecurity threats Rural industries, and their supply, are creating more data than ever, with more information being stored virtually creating an increased vulnerability to cyber threats.

Rare earth mineral demand growth As rural sectors become technologically advanced, they could be especially vulnerable to an abrupt change in access to, or the price of, rare earth-containing products.

Climate refugees emerge As severe weather trends escalate, the potential for climate refugees increases, with the Global South particularly vulnerable. This situation will impact rural industries, creating challenges related to policies, commodity demand and labor.

The stakes are high, and the pace of change is unprecedented

While this report is focused on helping the RD&E community in Australian rural industries prepare for the transformative times ahead, these forces extend beyond borders. They represent possible global shifts in how agriculture could evolve in an increasingly interconnected and volatile world. 

As Lindy is experiencing in Georgia citrus, with change and uncertainty lies opportunity. Those who can anticipate and adapt to these forces will help shape the future of global agriculture.

For a deeper dive, download the full report for free here.

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