The Paris Agreement (5-minute Read)

Let’s explore the Paris Agreement negotiated by 196 countries during the United Nation Framework Convention for Climate Change (UNFCCC) in Paris in 2016.  One hundred and ninety-one members of the UNFCCC are parties to the agreement, with the US withdrew from it in 2020 under the Trump Administration and rejoined under the newly inaugurated Biden Administration.

People have mixed feelings about this because a lot of the provisions are voluntary, and some countries are not on track to meet them. However, it was one of the greatest achievements ever. This agreement, signed by every nation in the world, set the direction of travel for humanity, not only for governments, but for business and civil society and local governments and state and regional governments. When the direction of travel is established in a way that everybody in the world says, okay, we get it. This is the path we are going to head on now because we’ve got to and because it’s good for us. That’s what happened in Paris.

More needed to happen because on the fifth-year anniversary in 2020. Every nation was called upon to increase their ambition and chart a course toward even steeper emissions reductions. As we all know, the pandemic led to a delay of one year, so that meeting will be in Glasgow, Scotland this October (2021). That’s when we’re going to see the so-called review and ratchet where every country is called upon to do more. For many reasons, and many seemed irrational, selfish and shortsighted, previous US president initiated the withdrawal from the Paris Agreement in the name of economic growth and under the banner of “America First”. One the first day of the new administration, US applied to rejoin the agreement.

The Paris Agreement sets ambitious goals that require action from every nation. It aims to keep global average temperature rise to well below 2 degrees Celsius, while working to hold it under 1.5 degrees Celsius. The agreement sets a target of peaking global emissions as soon as possible, then aiming for net-zero greenhouse gas emissions in the second half of this century. To achieve these goals, each country submits an action plan (known as a “nationally-determined contribution,” or NDC) every five years, progressively strengthening the plan over time. The accord also establishes new frameworks for measuring, reporting, and verifying emissions reductions, and providing capacity building for less-developed countries. The result is a global framework for action to solve the climate crisis.

Although Donald Trump tried very hard to sabotage US’s leadership and efforts in combating the climate crisis, several states joined together to create the United States Climate Alliance. The governors of Washington, New York, and California spearheaded the initiative and 11 other states, as well as Puerto Rico, joined the bipartisan coalition initially. As of mid-2020, the member states represent 55% of the US population and 60% of US GDP. Their goal was to help the US still meet its Paris goal of reducing emissions by at least 26–28% below 2005 levels by 2050. Poll after poll indicates that American voters generally want to be a part of the solution to climate change. More than 70% of U.S. voters support requiring 100% of electricity in their state to come from wind and solar by the year 2050. The climate change naysayers had better listen.

Irrespective of the flip-flopping position of the US, fortunately, other nations are stepping up and on track to overachieve their Paris commitments. China and India are projected to reduce global carbon emissions by roughly 2–3 billion metric tons by 2030, due largely to positive developments in coal restrictions in both countries. China’s coal consumption peaked in 2013 at 4.24 billion metric tons, followed by a steady decline between 2014 and 2016. However, coal consumption rose again in 2017 and 2018, despite China remaining optimistic it will reduce coal in its energy mix to under 58 percent. India has stated that planned coal-fired power plants may not be needed, and if the country fully implements the policies it has announced, it would see significantly slower growth of CO2 emissions over the next decade. As a result, both China and India look set to overachieve their Paris Agreement climate pledges. Six years ago, the idea of either country stopping – or even slowing – coal use was considered highly unlikely. Yet, both are now on the way to achieving this critical goal. Over 100 members, comprised of national governments, subnational governments, and businesses and organizations, have joined the Powering Past Coal Alliance, committing to phase out coal use no later than 2050.

In September 2020, China’s leader Xi Jinping announced that China will become carbon neutral by 2020. The ambitious goal by the world’s biggest GHG emitter, which surprised many experts, could help significantly slow global warming. Some experts warned, however, that Mr. Xi had offered almost no detail, raising doubts about the viability of targets that remain years in the future. Still, this is a step in the right direction for China and for the world. The world should hold China and US, along with other major GHG producing countries, accountable to their committed targets.

Here is a reality check. Global climate action needs to be more ambitious. The current set of global country emissions pledges and targets still falls short of what’s needed to prevent global temperatures from rising more than 2 degrees Celsius. One analysis indicates that current pledges/targets need to be strengthened to prevent an additional 13 to 16 gigatons of carbon dioxide equivalent (GtCO2e) emissions by 2030. Analyses also suggest that while many countries’ current climate action commitments are insufficient and not consistent with keeping global temperature rise below 2 degrees Celsius, the commitments are critically insufficient in Russia, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, the US, Ukraine, and Vietnam. The commitments made by these countries could lead to global temperature rise of more than 4 degrees Celsius, a scenario unimaginable for human and most other species to survive the resulting catastrophes. A growing number of countries are setting targets toward carbon neutrality by mid-century, including Chile, Costa Rica, New Zealand, Denmark, France, and the UK. Year 2020 marked a critical year for raising ambition on climate commitments, as it is the first year that parties to the Paris Agreement will begin submitting new or enhanced climate plans. (This is often referred to as the Paris Agreement’s “ratchet” mechanism.) We are all hopeful that the forthcoming UN’s COP 26 climate conference in Glasgow to review the National Determined Commitments will show higher ambition to ensure a livable planet for our future generations.