Uganda's political unrest is nothing new.

Uganda's election campaigns have commenced with the worst violence seen in Kampala, the country’s capital, for over a decade. The President of Uganda, Yoweri Museveni is facing a nightmare in pop-star turned politician Bobi Wine. However, the turbulent political scene is nothing new in Uganda. Looking back at some of the nations political history can help us understand the narrative behind Yoweri’s rule and how it might take much more to remove him.

The stained social fabric of Uganda

Born to cattle farmers in 1944, Yoweri Kaguta Museveni went on to study Political Science and Economics at the University of Dar es Salaam in Tanzania. Amongst his peers, he became known for his extreme ideologies on revolutionary warfare and was part of a student union that allied with African liberation movements. By the year 1970, Museveni joined the government office of Ugandan Prime Minister, Milton Obote. However, this position lasted just under a year as in 1971, General Idi Amin Dada seized power over Uganda in a military coup d'état. Museveni alongside many other academics and professionals were now forced into exile in Tanzania.

Remembered as the “Butcher of Uganda”, Amin has a dark, sinister history of his own. The military dictator devastated the Ugandan economy with outrageous policies and erratic behaviour that was often fueled by corrupt motives and a lack of emotional intelligence. One of the most popular incidences includes the expulsion of 500 Israelis and 50,000 South Asians who held British citizenship. Amin reported that God appeared in person and instructed him to expel these Asians within 90 days. Amin accused Ugandan Asians of "milking Uganda's money" and hated their alliance and wealth accumulation that favoured the British Empire. The result of his ill-chosen strategies deterred foreign investment and caused a dramatic economic downturn in Uganda. Ironically, in present-day Uganda, it is the Asian minority who dominate multiple agricultural, commerce and manufacturing markets in the country’s economy.

Over the next 8 years, Amin would be responsible for the slaughter of up to 500,000 citizens including the Archbishop of Uganda and 4,000 disabled Ugandans who were fed to crocodiles in the River Nile.

The Museveni regime and Uganda’s downward spiral

Amid Amin’s brutal reign of terror, Museveni, still in Tanzania, formed the Front for National Salvation (FRONASA) in partnership with Mozambican and Rwandan guerrilla groups. Their central mission was to oust Idi Amin. A series of events following their invasion of Uganda led to a terrible ordeal known as the Uganda–Tanzania war. After months of fighting, they had succeeded and Milton Obote was eventually reinstated as Prime Minister. Amin fled to Saudi Arabia for safety and did not leave exile until he died in 2003. 

A few years later, mistrust over Obote’s 1980 election result, prompted Museveni to form the National Resistance Movement (NRM) and lead a guerrilla uprising against the Obote regime - The Luwero War. Five years and half a million deaths later, the resistance had prevailed. Nevertheless, the NRM army refused to cooperate with the new government under General Okello Lutwa. The army captured Kampala in January of 1986 and Yoweri Museveni self-declared as President of Uganda with the NRM party. He has not relinquished this position since.

With an economy that was completely dead, Museveni had an immense challenge in restoring peace, structure and economic stability for the people of Uganda. Despite facing seven major rebel insurgencies, confidence in Museveni continued to grow. His populist approach enabled him to demonstrate his commitment to a better Uganda and was recognised for his efforts both overseas and domestically. This was backed by his promotion of capitalist reforms set out to improve economic development and carry Uganda on the journey to becoming a self-sustaining national economy. Some highlights include:

• the promotion of government officials from every ethnic group of Uganda and the highest representation of women in leadership compared to any previous regime. 
• the diversification of agricultural exports and the progression of industries that utilized local raw materials in manufacturing. 
• his dedication to tackling poverty by easing access to primary school education and spearheading a successful campaign to combat the rate of HIV/AIDS. 
• an anti-inflation package that would reconstruct budget constraints and place limitations on government spending. The effect of the programme was an annual GDP growth rate of approx. 6% and a remarkable reduction in inflation compared to a peak of 350% in 1986.

Nevertheless, things were not looking great for too long. Firstly, the benefits of Uganda’s new growth and development was and still is, largely confined to the south and Kampala. Elsewhere, deep poverty is still the rule. Foreign and domestic support for Museveni also began to die down with corruption being one of the major concerns. With over more than three decades in power, observers are concerned he has become an expert in manipulating the ballot box to steer away potential challengers. Additionally, Museveni’s intolerance for advice and criticisms has caused many relationships with other national leaders to deteriorate as working with him became tedious and difficult. He received international scalding from the UN for his participation in supporting rebels during the 1st and 2nd Congo War (1997-2003) without seeking counsel from the Ugandan parliament or civilian advisers. Charges against him in the 2003 U.S. Department of State Country Report stated that Museveni’s security forces “committed unlawful killings” and tortured suspects “to force confessions”. Furthermore, in 2012, Museveni came under fire for his lack of success in the fight against warlord Joseph Kony and the Lord’s Resistance Army (LRA). The atrocities perpetrated by Kony and the LRA terrorised Uganda for decades and although the threat of the LRA is no longer imminent, Museveni’s failure to eliminate the operation was a cause for concern.

Having won 5 presidential elections, critics say it is the absence of domestic and international pressures that have been conducive for a life presidency in Uganda. At 76, Museveni is still eligible to seek another term in the 2021 January election after lawmakers removed constitutional age limits on the presidency.

Bobi Wine: A thorn to the Museveni administration

Formally known as Robert Kyagulanyi Ssentamu, Bobi Wine’s influence as a political leader seeks to empower a generation who are suffering from a “leadership vacuum” in Uganda.

Despite his seemingly unconventional route, the former popstar is not new to politics. Wine has been advocating for the freedom of Ugandans through his reggae style music and won a seat in the Ugandan national assembly in 2017. He has since been encouraging young people to stand up for their rights in the face of oppression. In spite of this, his extensive efforts have not been without backlash and resistance from the government. The president has continuously thrown multiple violations at Wine, claiming that he is being used by “homosexuals and others who don’t like the stability and independence of Uganda”. Currently, security forces continue to use surveillance mechanisms to spy on his home and offices, as well as restrict access to his rallies and campaigns. Just last night, the politician tweeted that he was left to sleep in his car by the roadside after police received orders to block him from entering certain roads and deny him entry to local hotels. 

Last week on November 18th, the opposition's most popular candidate was violently arrested during a rally in the Luuka district. Wine was not seen again for two days until a court released him on bail - charged with holding mass rallies in violation of COVID-19 restrictions. This arrest triggered protests across the capital with violence erupting to some of the worst levels Uganda has seen in over a decade.

Security forces responded to the protests with tear gas and reckless shooting at civilians and ordinary pedestrians. The death toll has at least reached 37 with dozens more injured. The blatant violence being executed by military authorities and own clothed policemen has been appalling although Security Minister Elly Tumwine has said that police in Uganda have a right to shoot protesters dead if they "reach a certain level of violence”, repeating that they “die for nothing”. Sadly, the turbulence and unrest is anticipated to carry on into the presidential and parliamentary elections on Jan 14th. 

With just under 2 months to go, it is evident that the 38-year-old opposition figure will not go down without a fight - but neither will Museveni. Particularly through the use of social media, using the hashtags #UgandaisBleeding and #WeAreRemovingaDictator; Wine continues to call on the youth of his country to join him in this revolt against their oppressor. Could the continuous attacks on Wine be exposing the paranoia of Museveni’s regime? 

Food for thought

Many great men once hailed as a liberator in periods of economic and social unrest are now reduced to the devastation of their autocratic rule. These are leaders who in their youth, rid their nation of men who behaved just like they do now. It is concerning to think that dictators like Museveni are convinced that no one outside of themself is able to succeed in leading the country. Perhaps they underestimate their appetite for power and spiral out of control to tarnish democracy. What will it take to end this cycle of liberation followed by oppression? What are your thoughts on this?

By Deborah Sampah