The UK’s Foreign Policy Pivot

Peter Cardwell, Senior Counsel, Sovereign Strategy

Unless every one of more than 100 polls taken since the start of the election is wrong, in four days the United Kingdom will wake up to the first Labour government since 2010.  The implications for the UK are clear.  But internationally, too, change is certainly coming.  After meeting the King to be formally appointed and naming his Cabinet, one of Sir Keir Starmer’s first tasks will be to fly to Washington for a NATO summit on Tuesday, next week.  This is Sir Keir’s first foreign policy test, but at the same time he is well-known internationally as many leaders have seen the writing on the wall and have been engaging with him and his team for some time.  

A big issue at NATO, which celebrates its 75th anniversary, will be defence spending.  As an electoral point of cleavage, it has not featured prominently in the UK campaign, although within recent days UK Foreign Secretary Lord (David) Cameron, who was himself Prime Minister between 2010 and 2016 before resigning after losing the Brexit referendum, has warned Labour has failed to publicly match the 2.5 per cent of GDP commitment the Conservatives have pledged.  This could be to some extent awkward at NATO, especially as Sir Keir will be part of a movement of leaders who attempt to persuade other countries to give more to military spending, but the likelihood is that Labour will match this commitment as a government.  As the Shadow Health Secretary, Labour’s Wes Streeting has pointed out in recent days, not everything Labour will do is contained within its 133-page manifesto; there will be much more they both intend, and will be forced to, do.  As the Conservatives have been keen to tell the UK, public within this election campaign, the Ukraine war, with its associated aid, defence, foreign policy and energy price implications, was unforeseen, and a Prime Minister Starmer will no doubt have to deal with shocks, challenges and perhaps even wars that have not been anticipated.

More broadly, Labour points out in its manifesto its commitment to NATO is ‘unshakeable’ – a marked contrast from 2019 when Jeremy Corbyn led Labour and advocated withdrawal from the multilateral institution.

International aid has not been as much of a priority for the UK government recently, with a move from 0.7 per cent of GDP to 0.5 per cent.  Labour makes no explicit commitment in its manifesto on aid, but it is highly likely there will be a much greater emphasis on aid not just as a policy for what Labour would see as its ethical approach, but in terms of Britain’s soft power.  Its manifesto points to being “once again a good partner for international development and a defender of the rule of law.”  “Britain will,” we are told, “be a reliable partner, a dependable ally, and a good neighbour. An optimistic country at the start of an era of renewal.”  In any changes to the machinery of government, it would not be surprising if Labour re-establishes a department specifically for international development, which existed until it was brought into what became the Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office in 2020 (there had been a standalone international development department in the UK for 52 years previously).

The United States is cited as the most important UK ally and the special relationship will, Labour insists, perhaps not particularly subtly, “transcend whatever political parties and individuals are in office”.  There is no suggestion Labour will attempt to re-join the EU, although suspicion remains of Sir Keir, who initially campaigned for a second referendum after Leave won the Brexit Referendum in 2016.  Labour says it wants to deepen ties with EU nations, although there are clear questions about how this works in the context of freedom of movement and the security alliance Labour says it wants to be part of with the EU.  Labour is also clear and very consistent on its support for the European Convention on Human Rights, an issue whatever remains of the Conservative Party on Friday morning will grapple with at it almost certainly seeks to elect a new leader when Rishi Sunak is forced to resign.

As Labour’s manifesto tells us, change is coming.