What CERAWeek 2024 will miss

Starting Monday March 18, CERAWeek will again open what is considered by many to be the high point of the energy conference calendar for senior leaders of the industry. It is a testament to the sustained efforts over decades from the originators of the conference, and Jamey Rosenfeld. More than 350 CEOs are listed in the agenda, spread over 5 days and 604 sessions and the topics range across the entire energy landscape, with a focus on the energy transition and the future of the industry. And this does not include the many private sessions CERAWeek will host or the various side events groups will be hosting across the Houston area for the duration of the week. It is an impressive agenda and gathering. See my advice on how to navigate this event down below.

But even with such a broad agenda there are topics that will be missed or discussed but underserved. These include adaptation, the rising issues surrounding water, and the current and coming shifts in global trade.

Adaptation- The conference does not completely miss this topic, with 3 sessions discussing it, chaired by people I know and respect greatly. The calculation is simple, if there is not enough mitigation of climate change (which there is not as of yet), then it must be addressed by adaptation. 2023 saw records fall in multiple areas- new high temperatures, number of billion dollar disasters in the US (28), and 12,000 lives lost. A number of utility companies are already contending with it, using AI to determine which lines to bury and going on a spree of tree trimming. But this issue is something all energy companies will need to embed in their strategy as it increases the frequency of supply disruptions, causes needed re-routes and other solutions for their supply chains, imperils worker health and safety, and changes what consumers will need. Companies will need to look at hardening key infrastructure to bounce back quickly from extreme weather events. It will also take building resilient supply chains backed up by more robust storage capacity and solutions. End users will be seeking the security of supply from both large networks as well as distributed energy solutions. All of this will require new thinking on storage locations and size, not to mention the rapidly growing need for mobile energy solutions.

These strategic calculations need to be reviewed continually as effects from climate meet up against the changing energy mix. Add into that what will be growing geopolitical risks as governments and populations deal with new stresses.

Water issues- Like adaptation, CERAWeek does discuss water issues in a few sessions. However, these are largely focused on discrete activities such as water conservation (exceedingly important in its own right). But this misses what is increasingly a holistic issue of too much water in some places (extreme weather events for one) and not enough in others. This includes the low river levels in many parts of the world in recent years which impacted the movement of much needed fuel supplies, as well as the ongoing disruption at the Panama Canal. In recent years it has also reduced power generation in some areas- this is not just the expected hydropower but also other generators that rely on sufficient water at a cool enough temperature. Frackers in the US have been attuned to the issue as it relates to their operations for several years as it quickly bumped up against local demands for water as well as its disposal.

Energy demand use for desalination currently uses 75.2 TWh of power per year, a bit under what Singapore and Hong Kong need combined (though about half of what bitcoin mining uses). This can be expected to go up sharply 60% of people live in areas with high surface water stress. At max efficiency a desalination plant could provide a person all the water they need for a day(to include water for food and other consumer goods) for 3.2 kWh. But at current efficiency this ranges from 16 to 83 kWh per day.  

While water use has become much more efficient (for instance Arizona uses 3% less water than in 1957, even as population is more than 5x that amount)- the myriad growing issues will require the energy industry to focus more on it.

Global trade- This topic (as well as the subset of global energy trade) is one I know is of keen interest to energy executives, yet there are no sessions on it, despite its prominence in the news for the last several years. But as my colleagues in our Global Advantage practice recently showcased in their report on “Jobs, National Security, and the Future of Trade”, global trade is expected to grow at a slower pace than GDP. Trade patterns will also shift sharply, which is already evident in energy from the changes wrought by the invasion of Ukraine and its after effects. For energy companies, it will be critical to understand the potential for trade flow changes, to include policy changes (such as the potential long term impacts of the US pause on LNG exports). This also has implications for the materials needed from multiple supply chains for both the energy system of today and the energy system of the future.

 There are arguably other topics as well but that is not to diminish the important role CERAWeek plays for our industry. What the executive conference really brings is the pulse of a global energy into a compact area in Houston for a week. Absorbing the sessions, the conversation and the media coverage can give you a sense of how the industry is feeling at present and where it is looking to go next.

 In terms of approaching this massive conference I suggest the following:

 1.      Take care of yourself- it’s a long week. As Arjun Murti has recommended in the past, keep alcohol use in check and stay away from too much red meat so you can get a solid night of sleep

2.      The big plenary sessions with the leading CEOs of the industry are often the least surprising, and are also covered extensively by the press. Everyone is generally in attendance- so it is not a great networking time so keep these facts in mind.

3.      The “smaller sessions” often have the most unexpected and information dense discussions, with speakers you can interact with and often have a deep understanding of the topic as well as a comprehensive knowledge of the challenges the industry faces. Head to sessions with people like: Jason Bordoff , Kevin Birn , Roger Kranenburg Helen Currie Morgan Bazilian Joe McMonigle Joseph Majkut Mark S. Brownstein and many others.

4.      There are many sessions that happen in parallel- plan it out in advance. I suggest pasting the agenda into ChatGPT, telling it your interests and ask for a plan as an initial starting point

5.      Overindex on networking- there is no week with a greater concentration of the industry. You can do the equivalent of multiple long-haul flights with just a bit of pre-planning and a lot of coffees in terms of meeting the people you need to speak with. And keep an eye out for the various side events hosted by other organizations during the week- they can be a great way to meet some new people and get away for a bit from CERAWeek central.

6.      Write up your notes and share them- your colleagues will appreciate it and you will thank yourself as time passes and the sharp memories of the event begin to fade.

7.      Don’t forget to have fun- self explanatory.