Who will save Pakistan?

Despite subscribing to IMF’s rescue and restructuring plans 24 times, Pakistan is still the ailing man amongst Asia’s 48 economies which contribute 60% of global GDP growth and is home to about the same proportion of human beings on the planet.

In a fast-recovering post-pandemic Asia, Pakistan is an odd man out. Throughout its 75-year existence, the country has seen over 23 prime ministers interspersed with long spells of military rule. It also has the dubious distinction that none of its prime ministers completed the constitutionally mandated five-year term in office. It is a perfect example of a resource-rich country with vast human capital and everything else gone wrong.

 In 2022, Pakistan had a population of 235 million with an average age of 20.4 years. Bad schooling and higher education destroyed the value of the nation’s talent pool. The country’s youth is looking beyond its inherited legacy and working to rebuild the country. For all the years since independence, rent-seeking generals and bureaucrats colluded with foreign powers and corrupt politicians to usurp the country’s resources.

America exploited the youth of Pakistan to man its mercenary forces to win over the USSR on the battlefields of Afghanistan. That not-so-cold war left Afghanistan in ruins. The Mujahedeens which Pakistan put together came back to roost in Pakistan after their action in Afghanistan. Attempts were made to redirect this force to India and start another war. This plan did not work out because the establishment lacked funding and a coherent narrative to inspire the jihadists.

Pakistan got two times lucky when America restarted the war in Afghanistan after the 9/11 attack. But it lost its face and credibility when Americans figured out that Osama Bin Laden was not hiding in Afghanistan but enjoying the hospitality of Pakistani generals in Abbottabad. These generals were America’s most trusted allies and mediated all the aid that Pakistan received continuously for over 70 years.

When Americans left Afghanistan in August 2021, Pakistan fell into an abyss. The economy also suffered the double whammy of covid-induced recession. For years, the army played a stabilizing role when politicians could not deliver. But this time, rising public backlash forced the army to think twice. The IMF has injected more funds to keep the country a going concern. However, over-reliance on imports and weak exports has destabilized the economy.

The rot in Pakistan runs deep. It cannot be fixed with just a Band-Aid. The country suffers from three distinct problems viz., an identity crisis, a political crisis and an economic crisis, each of which has to be addressed independently.

The identity crisis is the first. Pakistan was formed from some Muslim-dominant parts of erstwhile united India. It was created based on a shared religious identity in 1947. But the leaders erred in the very beginning. Islam is a religion, not an identity. Even hard-core Islamic countries like Saudi Arabia have clan-based identities. Islam is a common religion, but the country is wedded together by a mutually respecting, dynamic bond of its tribes who have shared a long history of fighting the elements in the desert.

Pakistan on the other hand was carved out of India. Presently India has 19,500 languages. Each language is a hard disk of culture for the people who speak it. The newly formed state, Pakistan lived in denial. It reinvented its history – mostly from imagination. It patched together and glorified India’s Muslim rulers. This is a disjointed narrative at best. The Mughals who ruled India were Persians. In their court, they appointed only Persian officers. When Persians were not available, they appointed Indian Brahmins (Hindu priests) and Rajputs (warrior clans). Indian Muslims and lower caste Hindus were disenfranchised masses who eked out a living from farming or trade. This continued under the colonial occupation too. India has always been a super culture and has managed to appease its many named and unnamed cultures within.

Pakistan on the other hand tried to ignore this diversity in the slice of territory it inherited. It imported a national language from central India, alien to the people in its geographies. The landed gentry accepted the newfound homogeneity with the promise that their land-holding rights would not be questioned. Everyone else fought with each other. Minorities were alienated. Clans who have had thousands of years of history were asked to wipe clean their cultural memories. In the growing vacuum, a new narrative was needed to keep the country together and the rulers gave birth to an anti-India rhetoric. The park army usurped all the newborn state’s resources selling this story to its citizens. Pakistan transformed into a garrison state and packed its discontentment within.

The political crisis started with the death of Mr. Jinnah who led the agitation to create Pakistan. He died without leaving any guidebooks for his Islamist supporters. He died even without spelling out what his version of Islam was. The elected prime minister was killed a few months later. Divisive agendas and conspiracies were hatched by power-hungry politicians and the ensuing confusion led to the first spell of military rule. When archrival India embraced a non-aligned foreign policy, Pakistan embraced America, which was looking for an ally to beat the USSR. The West showered the country with aid. Pakistan became the spoiled brat of Asia. But easy money is easily gone. In the thick of fighting the West’s battles, Pakistan forgot to build the basics of a viable economy.

That is the seed of the economic crisis. Pakistan’s people lack skills. Its education system is in tatters. The economy relies on agriculture but again lacks the means to increase farm productivity. The lack of basic industries means it does not have the basement to build a sustainable economy. So, how can the nation pull together as one now?

Pakistan is rich in traditional industries like textiles, crafts and leather goods. It has a prosperous diaspora. It has a great creative industry. There are millions of young men looking to accomplish great things. Its youth is inspired by success stories from India, China, South Korea and all over the Middle East. The world can invest in Pakistan’s youth and help them come up with entrepreneurial ideas that can save Pakistan. India’s Fab India – a global marketing company of traditional hand-made textiles can be easily replicated in Pakistan. So can they replicate Ola taxi services, and others like Oyo Rooms to kick start an under-explored tourism sector? Pakistan’s youth need to identify 1000-2000 start-up ideas from around the world that they can easily replicate within Pakistan. They can create jobs and rebuild the country.

And while doing this, they need to keep out of the reach of flimsy-headed politicians. Their can-do attitude matters. If they do this right, Pakistan can emerge as a trillion-dollar economy within the next decade, even while it comprehends what to do with its missing middle. There are places where youth enthusiasm has revived a nation’s fortunes. Hopefully, Pakistan’s youth can grab this opportunity and rebuild the country in time.

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