Will Debt Forgiveness And Gun Regulations Improve Biden's Standing Among The Young?
CLAIRE GREGORY: Hi, this is Claire Gregory (ph) in Guildford, England, where I'm about to walk across the stage to graduate with a PhD in the psychology of decision-making. This podcast was recorded at...
ASHLEY LOPEZ, HOST:
11:42 a.m. Eastern Time on Friday, April 12, 2024.
GREGORY: Things may have changed by the time you hear it, like me officially being a doctor. OK, here's the show.
(SOUNDBITE OF THE BIGTOP ORCHESTRA'S "TEETER BOARD: FOLIES BERGERE (MARCH AND TWO-STEP)")
LOPEZ: Ooh, congratulations.
SUSAN DAVIS, BYLINE: That's a cool concept.
ELENA MOORE, BYLINE: In decision-making.
DAVIS: Yeah, I think I might read that thesis paper.
MOORE: I would fail that so quickly.
(LAUGHTER)
MOORE: I wouldn't even be able to get to class. I would be so - I'd be like, do I go this way? Do I go...
DAVIS: Yeah.
MOORE: ...That way?
DAVIS: Oh.
LOPEZ: Congratulations. That's a big deal. Hey there. It's the NPR politics podcast. I'm Ashley Lopez. I cover voting.
MOORE: I'm Elena Moore. I cover politics.
DAVIS: And I'm Susan Davis. I also cover politics.
LOPEZ: This week saw a lot of issues put front and center that Democratic voters care a lot about - student loan debt forgiveness, gun regulations and new threats to abortion access. On Monday, the Biden administration unveiled a new plan to eliminate student debt for millions of Americans. The administration says that if fully implemented, it would bring the number of borrowers who've seen some debt forgiven under the Biden administration to more than 30 million.
Obviously, this comes at a time when Biden is really struggling with young voters, even more than other groups. So that brings me to you, Elena. Can you talk to me about, first of all, what this plan is? And, like, what do you think this signals about how the Biden administration is thinking about its sort of relationship to young voters right now?
MOORE: I mean, this plan is not the same wide scale loan forgiveness that Biden ran on four years ago. You know, there was this big push to try to eliminate up to, for most people, $10,000 but up to 20,000. That's not what this is. It's a much smaller group. It focuses on primarily folks with, like, long-standing debt and, you know, people who've been paying their payments for a while. But these are for people who have either, you know, recently been in school or student loan debt is still a very big issue for them.
LOPEZ: Yeah.
MOORE: That's an issue that young voters care about. We've seen that in the past. It's energized them in the past. It's no secret, though, that for a while, Biden has struggled with young voters. In our most recent NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist poll, young voters - so under 30 for this - 6 in 10 disapprove of the job that Joe Biden is doing as president right now. So that's the most of any age group. It's nothing to sneeze at. I mean...
LOPEZ: Yeah.
MOORE: ...We're still far from the election but not that far. So it's, I think, a very clear sign that the administration is still trying to show young people and all people with loans that, you know, they're still looking at this, and they're still trying to make inroads here after the Supreme Court tossed out that initial executive order.
DAVIS: You know, sometimes politics can be really complicated, and sometimes it's really simple. And in this event...
LOPEZ: Yeah.
DAVIS: ...This feels really simple, what...
LOPEZ: Yeah.
DAVIS: ...the president's trying to do. It's April of an election year. His polls are bad. He's struggling in...
LOPEZ: Yeah.
DAVIS: ...An election against Donald Trump. Like, they are trying, clearly. They need the base to be energized. They need Democratic voters to show up. And this has been a core issue for the Democratic base. It is true that Joe Biden will be able to campaign and say, no other American president has canceled more student loan debt than me.
Couple caveats here - you know, this is obviously going to be challenged. There's existing legal challenges. He's lost in the Supreme Court before. There's two ongoing additional legal challenges where it ultimately ends. But sometimes, it's not about the outcome. It's about the fight. And...
LOPEZ: Yeah.
DAVIS: ...Joe Biden needs to be able to campaign on ideas that are popular within the party. And the majority of student loan debt in this country's held by people under 40, and he has had a hard time with these voters. So it seems pretty clear what he's trying to do. But frankly, he's been canceling student loan debt for a while now.
LOPEZ: Yeah.
DAVIS: And we haven't seen sort of an obvious poll boost or bump. Like, Elena and I, before the podcast, were talking about, like, how many people, how many young voters, can say affirmatively that they acknowledge that the president's policies had affected their lives, and it's almost none of them. You said it was, like, 1 in 10?
MOORE: The policy disconnect is really real. And, like, when I'm out talking with people outside of polling, like, they can remember tangible things that have happened, like that initial push to eliminate student loan debt 'cause that affected so many people. But it's a lot harder to attach Biden's name to some of these other extremely big legislative - what the White House and the campaign would say are wins for them and apply to things young people care about. It's just a lot harder for them to see those as, like, Biden wins.
LOPEZ: Yeah. Well, moving on to the Justice Department, which announced a new rule on Thursday that will require anyone who sells guns to run federal background checks. This is a process that's supposed to cut down on what's been known as the gun show loophole. They say it would affect roughly 23,000 unlicensed dealers and tens of thousands of gun sales each year.
Sue, can you tell us more about this? And let's talk about what this also means on a sort of political level because this is also an area where, especially Democratic voters, but some moderate voters - there's a lot of, like, buy-in on this idea.
DAVIS: Now, this is one where the politics are really tricky, right?
LOPEZ: Yeah.
DAVIS: Gun politics in particular are some of the trickiest in American politics. And yeah, like, if you poll questions like this, they get a majority of support in the country. I don't think there's any doubt about that.
LOPEZ: Yeah.
DAVIS: That's been proven time and time again. It's absolutely going to be challenged in the courts. Whether this actually ultimately goes into effect, I think, is very questionable. You already have opposition in Congress where Senate Republicans are saying they're going to use something called the Congressional Review Act. The easiest way to explain it - they probably don't have the votes to get it done there, but they could...
LOPEZ: Yeah.
DAVIS: ...Force a politically uncomfortable gun vote in Congress on this that some Democrats - I'm thinking of people like Jon Tester of Montana - might not want to take a gun vote in the lead-up to this election. And also, frankly, look, yes, proposals like this are popular nationally, but this is not a national popular election.
MOORE: Yeah.
DAVIS: And what I think is interesting about Biden doing this is that I understand why it makes Democrats happy and centrists happy and independents happy. But when I look at the states that are going to determine the presidential election - Pennsylvania, Michigan, Arizona and Nevada are four states that have a lot of gun owners, that have a lot of Democratic gun owners, and where the politics don't cut as cleanly as if you were in a blue state like California or New York or Washington or places that have advanced much more aggressive gun control laws. So I think for Biden - like, I get why he did it, but I don't think that this is - there could be unintended consequences of this because one thing we do know about gun politics is that there are single-issue gun voters in this country, and they more likely than not tend to be on the side of the gun rights movement. And these kind of moves from a Democratic president can also have the inverse effect of really rallying and giving a reason on the right for the gun rights movement to show up and vote against him.
DAVIS: Yeah, I think Sue's point is really good because it's - it almost gets at this, like, boomerang in some ways where, like, you see the administration do this thing that has a clear political motive, so obviously, there's going to be a political backlash in some way, shape or form. I do think, though, it's a different group. This is another nod to young voters we've seen over the last...
DAVIS: And parents in suburbia...
MOORE: And...
DAVIS: ...Women in suburbia which is just a big issue forward - kids' safety.
MOORE: Exactly. And while there are single-issue voters on protecting gun rights, there are single-issue voters on curbing gun violence. And I think that, especially seeing the priority it's been for officials like Vice President Kamala Harris - you know, she just went down to Parkland, Fla., the site of one of the most major school shootings in history, to talk about additional moves on curbing gun violence. So I think that this is a conversation that might be tailored at specific groups of people and might not be the subject of a rally in certain parts of Pennsylvania and Arizona, but it might be a subject of a rally in a purple, you know, district where there are more young people or more suburban women. So I think, like any political conversation, it's going to be a tailored message.
LOPEZ: And Sue, let's not forget abortion is still an issue that is motivating a lot of voters, particularly on the left and more moderate voters. And, you know, what happened this week in Arizona I think is a really interesting case for why this topic is even still in the news.
DAVIS: Look, like, the best thing that Democrats have going for them right now is the thing that's completely out of their control. And it is these conservative rulings in states like Arizona, which is now set to implement essentially a total ban on abortion in a state that is critical to the presidential race, critical to control the Senate and has competitive House races. And time and time again, abortion, when put to voters - and it's going to be on the ballot in Arizona - has proven to be a voter mover and on the side of the abortion rights part of the equation. Democrats couldn't control that this was going to happen in Arizona, but they might be able to politically benefit for it. And more broadly across the country, I don't think there's a single Democratic campaign that would tell you that they don't believe that abortion and abortion access is going to be a central focus of virtually every competitive race in this country.
LOPEZ: Yeah. All right. Let's take a quick break and we'll talk more in a moment.
And we're back. And Elena, you're out with a new story that takes a look back at the so-called unity task forces between Bernie Sanders and Joe Biden's presidential campaigns after the end of the 2020 presidential primary. Can you tell us what those were about?
MOORE: Yeah, so I looked back on this kind of, like, anniversary. I don't know if anyone else is, like, celebrating it, but four years ago this week, Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders dropped out of the presidential race. He was the last, you know, remaining...
LOPEZ: Right.
MOORE: ...Presidential opponent in the primary to then-candidate Joe Biden. And I remember it, you know, covering the election, as kind of a big deal because there was this unity moment, and there's always a unity moment among candidates at the end of a primary.
I always think - now, you know, our producer, Casey, pointed out that, you know, in 2008, Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton literally did their rally in Unity, N.H. Like, it always happens in some dramatic way. But this was really interesting because they made these policy task forces. The politicians and their allies kind of work together to make this big document of proposals on a bunch of different issues that progressives care about and kind of, you know, presented it to Biden ahead of the election. And he ended up adopting a bunch of the policies into his platform and acting on a bunch of them during his first term. So it - you know, it had a big effect.
So I wanted to look back on this because Sanders had a big pull with young voters. He was super popular in 2016 and 2020 among young voters. Comparatively to Biden, he did way better among them in the early primaries.
DAVIS: Although, we should say that some of those Bernie 2016 and 2020 voters aren't so young anymore.
(LAUGHTER)
MOORE: Well, exactly, exactly. So I kind of just wanted to, like, commemorate this moment that the two, you know, big longtime political figures had together and if there's any sort of unity moment now or, like, if not, how divided is it now?
LOPEZ: Yeah. And Sue, I think Bernie Sanders is a really interesting character. You know, even though he's an independent, and he comes more from, like, the more progressive wing of the party, and so he does butt heads with some of the more moderate members, he's actually remained, like, a really steadfast supporter of President Biden, you know, even though President Biden is struggling with some of the core base of his supporters. I mean, what do you make of, like, what Bernie Sanders sort of signifies in the party right now?
DAVIS: Bernie Sanders was squad before there was squad, right?
LOPEZ: Yeah.
DAVIS: Like, he's - like, he has been the sort of ideological father of this movement in the Democratic Party. But you have to give Bernie Sanders credit for this. Like, he has both been able to maintain his sort of philosophical worldview and the...
LOPEZ: Yeah.
DAVIS: ...Policies he advocates for. But when push comes to shove in Democratic politics, Bernie Sanders has always gotten inside the tent. And even in this election, I think it was the night or immediately after it was clear that Biden had clinched the nomination - although it was clear that Biden was going to have the nomination - Bernie Sanders put out an extended video making the case for why progressives should vote for Joe Biden this year and framing it in these terms of democracy being on the ballot, even though he knows as well as any progressive in the movement right now how frustrated they are at Joe Biden, how they want to see the country move in a different direction.
But I think that Bernie Sanders is a pragmatist. He's a very pragmatic, populist, progressive, right? And I think that, at the end, he understands that, like, your ideas don't matter if you don't win elections. And ideas are lovely, and philosophies are important. But if you lose elections and you can't implement any of it, then what's the point?
But the question I have for you, Elena, when you're talking to these people, is, does Bernie Sanders still engender as much goodwill on the left, or has - is he seen as maybe becoming a bit of the establishment in 2024 politics?
MOORE: Well, I mean, in some ways, things are just so different now that there are so many caveats that have to be said before even getting to that question.
DAVIS: Yeah.
MOORE: Like, Sanders isn't running for president. He likely will never run for president again.
DAVIS: He is running for reelection this year, though.
MOORE: That's true...
DAVIS: Yeah.
MOORE: ...In a...
DAVIS: I think he's safe.
MOORE: I think he's going to be chill (laughter).
DAVIS: I think we can predict that Bernie Sanders is safe in Vermont.
MOORE: I think we can almost make a race call.
DAVIS: Yeah.
MOORE: But Sanders is not in the same, like, political position he was four years ago. He doesn't have, like, a tangible base in the same way. He has people who follow him, and, like you said, he has like a legacy in progressive politics. But, like, he's not - you can argue he's not in lockstep with the progressive wing in the same way he once was. I mean, after the Hamas attack in Israel, some progressives actually criticized his response 'cause he did not immediately call for a cease-fire. He's since become much more critical of the administration and how Biden has dealt with Prime Minister Netanyahu. He wants to stop U.S. aid to Israel. So I think, just even in that example, Sanders is not embodying the same level as you would think of, like, Michigan Congresswoman Rashida Talib and how...
LOPEZ: Yeah.
MOORE: ...Vocal she's been in calling for action from the President.
That said, I do think Bernie and his, you know, allies still uphold this message of - like, these men come from different ends of the Democratic Party but understand the pragmatism of politics and what it means to meet the majority of the Democratic Party where they are. And so I think this is this really unique thing I found in this piece, which is, you know, allies of Sanders will point to Biden's ability throughout his entire career of acknowledging criticism and knowing when to shift.
LOPEZ: Yeah.
DAVIS: I mean, you can't deny that the progressive left has dramatically influenced the Biden administration - Joe Biden - on everything we just talked about. Student loan forgiveness - Biden was really reluctant to this idea. It took a huge lobbying effort from members on the left to get him to agree on that. On guns, he has moved to the left. I mean, he's always sort of supported tougher gun rules, but he's gotten even more aggressive rhetorically and on policy behind that. And on abortion, which is an issue that the president, in the course of his political career, had been sort of reluctant to speak about, he has become a more progressive Democrat, and I don't think any of that would have happened without the efforts of people like Bernie Sanders. And I think that is how you connect the dot where it's like, well, Bernie Sanders is all-in for Joe Biden.
And other notable progressives in Congress - Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez - she has also been very public in - and very vocal in saying she's going to support Joe Biden. It has not been - you mentioned Rashida Tlaib. There is a wing of the party that is more skeptical, who has even flirted with the idea that they could not support Joe Biden in November, and they're not part of that part of the progressive wing of the party.
LOPEZ: All right, let's take another quick break. And when we get back, it is time for Can't Let It Go.
And we're back. And now it is time for Can't Let It Go - the part of the show where we talk about the things that we just cannot stop thinking about, politics or otherwise. Sue, I'm going to start with you. What can't you let go of this week?
DAVIS: The thing I couldn't let go of this week is the death of O.J. Simpson, which is a name that I think that most Americans probably recognize. But for those of us of a certain age, the trial of O.J. Simpson back in 1994 was, like, one of the most seminal moments in...
LOPEZ: Yeah.
DAVIS: ...American cultural events. And part of why I can't let it go is, like, I - honestly, I'm thinking about this now because, Elena, I'm not even - speaking of young voters, I'm not even sure you were alive at the O.J. Simpson verdict. So it's - let me take you back in time.
MOORE: Yeah, I'm going to take that question, and I will - I'm going to speak with my team and get back to you.
DAVIS: Yeah. You don't need to comment on that - neither confirm nor deny. But it was this moment where, like, everyone in America watched this one event happen, and I'm not sure anything has - in my life has happened since then. And like, yes, there's been big events where people turn on the television, but this was, like, a scheduled news event that America was tuned into. And I was in 10th grade ecology class, and I remember literally every classroom in my high school stopped, and everybody put their TVs on. And the entire high school watched the verdict, and that happened all over the country. Like, employers, high schools, everyone was like - in airports - like, there - the stories of people tuned in to this verdict was such a, like, I-will-always-remember-where-I-was...
MOORE: Yeah.
DAVIS: ...Type of moment.
LOPEZ: Yeah.
DAVIS: And it was, like, the beginning of insane cable news coverage. And so much of what's become normal about our media environment now, like, I feel like it all - the origin story goes back to - a lot of it goes back to the trial of O.J. Simpson.
MOORE: It does feel like the way that that played out has totally influenced every moment where now we sit in front of the - like, watch cable news for a week straight of...
DAVIS: Yeah.
MOORE: ...On, like, a crazy thing that has happened.
LOPEZ: I have, like, a very clear memory of my mom getting, like, into big debates with other parents in the pickup line at school for - with this and getting so annoyed 'cause I just wanted to go home. It was like that, and this was, like, a week straight of, like, just all the parents wanting to talk about this nonstop.
DAVIS: It was like...
LOPEZ: It was crazy.
DAVIS: ...Everybody had a take. And it was...
LOPEZ: Yeah.
DAVIS: And people were arguing about it and divided on it, and it was this, like - it was just a very crazy moment in time. Ashley, what about you? What can't you let go of?
LOPEZ: All right. What I can't let go of this week is this story from the Associated Press about the Mexican government, particularly the office of the president declaring 19 feral cats that roam on the National Palace's property as living fixed assets. They're the first animals to get such a designation. And according to the AP, this investment term, fixed assets, usually applies to the buildings and furniture. But now that this, like, cluster of cats has this title, the Mexican government has now been, quote, "obligated the country's treasury to give them food and care for the rest of their lives." That's...
MOORE: Did a cat write that?
LOPEZ: Right.
(LAUGHTER)
DAVIS: Wait till the other cats hear about this.
LOPEZ: Big cat has a lot of influence in Mexico. Anyways, apparently - what I love about this article is that they mentioned that these cats apparently have a habit of walking in front of the cameras when the president is giving speeches, which I think is pretty fun and very on brand for cats.
DAVIS: You start putting out food...
MOORE: Yeah.
DAVIS: ...For 19 feral cats...
LOPEZ: Yeah.
DAVIS: ...You're going to get more cats.
LOPEZ: Yeah.
DAVIS: That's, like, one thing I know about feral cats.
MOORE: I don't think people realize...
DAVIS: They're gossips.
MOORE: ...How dangerous a feral cat is, too. Like, if a cat was like, feed me, or I'm going to claw you - like...
DAVIS: Yeah.
MOORE: I would feed the cat. I would put it in the Constitution. Like, I don't...
LOPEZ: And these cats...
MOORE: They're going to be scary.
LOPEZ: And these cats are getting fed by, like, everybody who comes to the palace. It's like...
MOORE: Yeah.
LOPEZ: ...There's these fun pictures of someone, like, giving them like, the - like, a cat, like, an ice cream cone. I'm just like, this is a recipe for disaster. But you know what? I also kind of love that they're designated, you know, something like a fixed asset from here on out.
MOORE: What a crazy difference to American politics, where all the dogs in the White House have been sent to farms.
(LAUGHTER)
LOPEZ: Yeah.
DAVIS: You know what? I bet, though - I bet this pays for itself 'cause I bet that the feral cats become such a drive of tourism, right? Like, you do this stuff, and people are like, I want to see the cats. I want to take my picture with the cats. I want to go there - that, you know, the cost-benefit analysis - maybe it's a moneymaker in the long run.
LOPEZ: Yeah, and the rat population is probably pretty low. Well, what about you, Elena? What can't you let go of this week?
MOORE: OK, well, for me, I am - I guess we're ending on kind of a - like, a sad note, but, like, "The Golden Bachelor," ABC's spinoff of "The Bachelor," "Bachelorette" - and it features contestants and a bachelor who are over 60 years old. But some updates for us - at the end of last year, Gerry Turner, who was their bachelor - he proposed to Theresa Nist, and it was, like, this big, beautiful, kind of, like, wholesome series, unlike some of the other "Bachelor" serieses (ph) that are, like, a little bit...
DAVIS: Raunchy?
MOORE: Raunchy is a good way to say it. They're getting divorced.
LOPEZ: Oh, no.
MOORE: They married three months ago. They're getting divorced. It was a televised wedding. I think the thing that I can't let go of - and this is, like, kind of mean - but, like, our good friend and colleague, Domenico Montanaro, senior political editor and correspondent, was, like, really convinced they were going to work.
(LAUGHTER)
MOORE: He was, like, really excited about it. He's a big watcher of the series, and they don't. They don't work. And I don't know if this is a possible thing.
DAVIS: There are many resident scholars on "The Bachelor" on the Washington desk...
MOORE: I know.
DAVIS: ...Of which I - so I would defer to their wisdom on this. But my secondary feeling about "The Bachelor" series and all its spinoffs is, like, when they end in marriage, it's either, like, forever...
MOORE: Yeah.
DAVIS: ...Or six weeks later.
MOORE: Yeah.
LOPEZ: Yeah.
DAVIS: Like, there's no, like, median bachelor...
MOORE: No.
DAVIS: ...Marriage. Like, there - who's the first bachelor or bachelorette? Like, they're still married. Like...
MOORE: Yeah.
DAVIS: Like, some of these people...
MOORE: Yeah.
DAVIS: ...Have been married for, like, decades now, but...
MOORE: But again, no social media when "The Bachelor" probably started, right? Fact-check me, but it was probably...
DAVIS: That could be part of it.
MOORE: Like, there are things about today's world where, like, it is harder to have love. And maybe it's...
DAVIS: Don't give up on love. Let's end the podcast on that.
LOPEZ: Yeah.
DAVIS: Don't give up on love, America.
LOPEZ: And that's all for this week. Our executive producer is Muthoni Muturi. Our editor is Eric McDaniel. Our producers are Jeongyoon Han and Casey Morell and Kelli Wessinger. Special thanks to Krishnadev Calamur. I'm Ashley Lopez. I cover voting.
MOORE: I'm Elena Moore. I cover politics.
DAVIS: And I'm Susan Davis. I also cover politics.
LOPEZ: And thanks for listening to the NPR POLITICS PODCAST.
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