HANK: This is Hank (ph) in College Station, Texas. It took me nine months, and my wife is glad that I am done, but I finally listened to all 1,793 episodes of the NPR POLITICS PODCAST recorded since 2015. This podcast was recorded at...
ASHLEY LOPEZ, HOST:
1:40 p.m. Eastern time, Tuesday, April 2, 2024.
HANK: Things may have changed by the time you hear this. It certainly did for me. OK, here's the show.
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LOPEZ: Oh, my God.
DOMENICO MONTANARO, BYLINE: Holy cow.
SARAH MCCAMMON, BYLINE: That is dedication. What did we even say five years ago?
LOPEZ: It's like the equivalent of, like, climbing Mount Everest, but it's the POLITICS PODCAST Everest.
MONTANARO: He may have some good media critiques of what we've said and done over those past several years.
LOPEZ: (Laughter) Hey there. It's the NPR POLITICS PODCAST. I'm Ashley Lopez. I cover politics.
MCCAMMON: I'm Sarah McCammon. I cover the presidential campaign.
MONTANARO: And I'm Domenico Montanaro, senior political editor and correspondent.
LOPEZ: Today on the show, another state is putting abortion rights in the hands of voters. Florida's Supreme Court gave the go-ahead for November's ballot to include a constitutional amendment to protect abortion rights. There are two catches, though. First, a six-week abortion ban will still be allowed to go into effect in May. Second, Florida requires a 60% majority vote from voters for any amendments to the Constitution to go into effect. First, Sarah, let's start with what this means, like, right now for people who are seeking abortion care in Florida.
MCCAMMON: For the moment, as in right this moment, it means things stay as they are very briefly. Abortion is legal up to 15 weeks under a law that's been enforced while this legal case was playing out. That is going to change very soon. According to the state Supreme Court ruling, another law that bans most abortions after about six weeks will take effect in just under a month. Now, that law was passed last year and was designed to take effect if the 15-week ban was upheld, which, of course, it was.
LOPEZ: Right. Well, what's the reaction from groups supporting the ballot initiative to protect abortion rights? What have you been hearing from them?
MCCAMMON: Well, there's a lot of optimism about this ballot measure.
LOPEZ: Yeah.
MCCAMMON: They've seen the success of similar measures in about half a dozen other states since the Dobbs v. Jackson Women's Health Organization decision in 2022, which, of course, overturned Roe v. Wade and opened the door to more than a dozen states to ban most or all abortions. The court said that voters will be able to cast ballots for a proposed state constitutional amendment that would prohibit the state from prohibiting, penalizing, delaying or restricting abortion before viability and under certain other health-related conditions. So it sets up a really interesting and contentious fight for November, given that Florida will be under a six-week ban soon that prohibits abortion before many women know they're pregnant. Voters are going to see the impact of that law.
LOPEZ: Yeah.
MCCAMMON: And then beyond Florida, you know, there are several other key states where abortion is likely to be on the ballot or at least where similar efforts are underway. I talked to Sarah Standiford with Planned Parenthood about this. She said they're watching about 11 states, and they're expecting a lot of success for these ballot measures.
SARAH STANDIFORD: It's an issue that crosses lines of partisanship, age, race and gender. That's what we've seen with huge victories at the ballot box. And I think that's what we're going to see in November.
LOPEZ: Right. So there's, like, a lot of optimism about November. But I mean, this was a mixed bag in terms of, like, what came out of the court this week. I mean, I wonder what they make of the fact that there is still that ban going into effect in about 29 days.
MCCAMMON: Yeah. I mean, abortion rights supporters are obviously disappointed that the six-week ban will be taking effect. You know, that dramatically rolls back access to abortion in Florida. Florida had been one of the few places in the South since the Dobbs decision with abortion access, albeit up to 15 weeks. But, you know, Ashley, most abortions take place before the 15-week point.
LOPEZ: Yeah.
MCCAMMON: So it was an important hub for access in the South, and that's going to mostly be going away soon.
LOPEZ: Well, what about folks against the measure? What are you hearing from groups in the sort of anti-abortion rights space?
MCCAMMON: Well, they have been concerned about the results of ballot measures in other states in which voters have repeatedly signaled support for abortion rights. They've been trying to keep the Florida measure and others off the ballot, obviously unsuccessfully in Florida. I talked to Katie Daniel with SBA Pro-Life America, which opposes the measure. She says Republicans and abortion rights opponents are going to have to work harder to articulate their message to voters.
KATIE DANIEL: So we're going to be leading with the compassion of what the pro-life movement is doing, as well as exposing the extremism of the other side.
MCCAMMON: Of course, what we've seen is voters seeing the impact of these abortion bans and pushing back at the ballot box. But Daniel's group and others are promising, you know, to fight the initiative in Florida and in other states this fall.
MONTANARO: The idea of a six-week ban is about as extreme as it gets in the country, and it's something that's making a lot of Republican strategists bite their nails, including, by the way, former President Trump, who is concerned about how abortion rights has really hurt Republicans in the last couple of election cycles since the Dobbs ruling. And remember, this is the first presidential election since the Dobbs ruling, and Trump is responsible for putting the three justices on the Supreme Court who wound up overturning Roe. And the Biden campaign is happy to remind everyone of that.
LOPEZ: Yeah, but considering the trend line in Florida, Domenico - like, this has been a couple of bad cycles for Democrats. But on the other hand, you know, conservative states have been upholding initiatives like this. I mean, what do - from what we know about Florida voters, like, do you think Florida is going to continue that trend of upholding abortion rights, even in states where, like, Democrats haven't really been faring well?
MONTANARO: Listen, this is the first presidential election, like I said, since the Dobbs ruling. We've seen Democrats win special election after special election.
LOPEZ: Yeah.
MONTANARO: And yeah, sure, Republicans have won the last couple of cycles in Florida. But, I mean, looking at the numbers, it was only a 3.4 percentage point margin in Florida. It was something - about 370,000 vote difference or so. You know, it's not a huge margin. It's a...
LOPEZ: Yeah.
MONTANARO: ...Very expensive state. And given the Biden campaign's humongous cash advantage right now over the Trump campaign, it would almost be dereliction of duty to not try to make the Trump folks at least spend money there.
LOPEZ: Yeah. And given that the 60% threshold needed to get this to pass - I mean, do you think Democrats would consider a vote that goes something like, let's say, 58% to 42 - like, just short of getting the ballot measure passing? Do you think that's a win, even if it doesn't actually change the law?
MONTANARO: It depends on what it gets them. I think that they'd...
LOPEZ: Yeah.
MONTANARO: ...Be very upset with the fact that Florida would still reduce access in a practical way. But on the other side of that, do they wind up picking up seats? Will there be a degree of activism that helps lead to, you know, winning a couple of House seats or winning the presidential election, for example, in Florida, if that were to happen? I think they would consider that a victory politically, even though it's still a defeat, practically speaking, for a lot of women.
LOPEZ: OK, let's take a break. When we're back, more about how this could impact the presidential race in Florida.
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LOPEZ: And we're back. Domenico, the Biden campaign clearly sees this as an opportunity to gain ground in Florida, where they've had, as we mentioned, a couple of rough cycles. Tell us about what you make of, like, whether this could be an opportunity for Democrats to start reinvesting in Florida and sort of seeing this state as being a possible swing state again, which I know is, like, a big ask.
MONTANARO: Well, we have known that abortion rights was going to be a huge piece of what the Biden campaign tries to run on this cycle. You know, democracy, January 6, are one piece of it, trying to remind people of what they don't like about Trump, but then digging into issues that really are important to people, and abortion rights is a major one that really sort of helped Democrats, again, like I said earlier, in the last couple of cycles. So, you know, Florida has been a difficult one for Democrats, but there's a lot of electoral votes out there. And it seems to me that they would want to at least try to test the waters.
Given that we're seven months out from Election Day at this point, it would seem that they would want to try to at least put some feelers out and get some activism started on whether or not this can move some numbers. And I would be surprised if they wouldn't at least try. We saw that yesterday. They went up with an ad already using Trump's words on abortion, launched it in Michigan, and they're going to be pushing this to a whole slew of other states across the country.
MCCAMMON: And even if they can't succeed in, you know, putting Florida into play for the presidential race, there are all kinds of down-ballot races that Democrats and Republicans are going to be thinking about and organizing around as they think about these abortion initiatives, too.
LOPEZ: I mean, since Florida is such a big state, I wonder, Sarah, do you see this as maybe, like, helping the Biden campaign's wider strategy of getting messaging of, like, when it comes to abortion rights in front of voters everywhere, not just in Florida?
MCCAMMON: Well, Biden and the Democrats know that abortion appears to be a winning issue for them, that many voters seem to be indicating that they feel these restrictions in the post-Dobbs era have gone too far. They've seen the stories about, you know, women being turned away for emergency care, rape victims being turned away and those kinds of stories don't land well with even moderate voters. And even many Republican voters support exceptions in those cases. So I think we're going to see a real battle over the messaging here, the Biden campaign and Democratic candidates hitting those messages hard.
Then we're also going to see Republicans and abortion rights opponents again, trying to, you know, push the idea that those Democratic proposals are extreme. You know, we saw that in Ohio last year, which passed an abortion rights amendment in 2023. And opponents of that amendment tried to paint it as extreme as creating too many carve-outs. But that didn't land well with voters. Of course, this is a very different election year. It's a presidential election year. But yes, I think this is something that we will hear about a lot from Democrats and President Biden.
MONTANARO: Yeah. I was going to say that argument really did sort of fall flat because it's more theoretical than practical because what's really happening for a lot of women across the country, and especially in the South, is that they're losing a degree of access...
LOPEZ: Yeah.
MONTANARO: ...To something that they had previously. That's actually happening currently. Whereas something like 80-plus percent of abortions currently take place within the first 12 weeks. So a lot of what Republicans point to of Democrats', quote-unquote, "extremism" really just doesn't take place very often.
MCCAMMON: And there's been an interesting kind of intramural battle in some states between abortion rights supporters over what that ballot language should look like. Some would like...
LOPEZ: Yeah.
MCCAMMON: ...To push for stronger protections for abortion rights, and others have argued for a more pragmatic strategy in states like Missouri, for example. And so I think what you're going to see is state-by-state, advocates sort of duking it out and trying to figure out, you know, what's possible. And, you know, when I talked to Planned Parenthood today, they said that they are going to get behind their state-based advocates, trust them by and large to put ballot initiatives before voters that they think can pass. So the language might look different in different states, depending on the electorate.
LOPEZ: Well, I mean, I guess that's the open question - right? - is, like, what is Florida's electorate going to look like? There's not just this ballot measure, which I think is a wild card. I think it's also worth noting that legalizing recreational marijuana will be on the ballot as well in Florida. I mean, like, how easy is it going to be to sort of predict what, like, Florida's electorate is going to look like?
MONTANARO: Yeah. I mean, the reality is Republicans still have the advantage in Florida. They've...
MCCAMMON: Yeah.
MONTANARO: ...Won the last couple of cycles there. Clearly, this is a state that's starting to lean more Republican. But when you put things on the ballot like abortion rights, like marijuana, when, by the way, Biden most needs women to turn out and vote for him, who have been a strong part of his base coalition, as well as younger voters who've been lagging. While those are two issues that could certainly appeal to them and Democrats are banking that it will help them at least close the gap and make the Trump campaign spend millions and millions of dollars there.
LOPEZ: Yeah. All right, let's leave it there for today. We'll be back in your feeds tomorrow. I'm Ashley Lopez. I cover politics.
MCCAMMON: I'm Sarah McCammon. I cover the presidential campaign.
MONTANARO: And I'm Domenico Montanaro, senior political editor and correspondent.
LOPEZ: Thank you for listening to the NPR POLITICS PODCAST.
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