Republicans haven't won a Minnesota presidential contest in a half-century. Can Trump?
NATALIE: Hi. This is Natalie (ph) from Carthage, Mo. I just dropped off my third-grader and kindergartner for their last day of school. Today is...
SARAH MCCAMMON, HOST:
Monday, May 20, 2024, and it's 12:08 p.m. Eastern time.
NATALIE: Things may have changed by the time you hear this, but I will hopefully be enjoying summer break with my boys. OK, here's the show.
(SOUNDBITE OF THE BIGTOP ORCHESTRA'S "TEETER BOARD: FOLIES BERGERE (MARCH AND TWO-STEP)")
MARA LIASSON, BYLINE: Very nice.
MCCAMMON: I'm not going to do the perennial they grow up so fast thing, but they do. Enjoy it. Hey, there, it's the NPR POLITICS PODCAST. I'm Sarah McCammon. I cover the presidential campaign.
LIASSON: I'm Mara Liasson, national political correspondent.
MCCAMMON: And Clay Masters is here from Minnesota Public Radio. Hi there, Clay.
CLAY MASTERS, BYLINE: Hello.
MCCAMMON: Today on the podcast, we're talking about, yes, Minnesota, as you might have guessed. It's been more than 50 years since that state last went for a Republican candidate in a presidential election. But it is nonetheless on former President Trump's wish list this year. Clay, I'll start with you. Even though Minnesota has been a reliable win for Democrats in presidential elections since back to the Carter years, I mean, is this a total fantasy for Trump?
MASTERS: Well, certainly, he is interested in getting Minnesota, especially since what happened in 2016. Hillary Clinton really underperformed in comparison to other presidential races in the state. Donald Trump did somewhat better - not a whole lot. But there was this real seismic shift that people talk about here in how rural Minnesota, especially in a part of the state in the north, known as the Iron Range, which used to be a blue-collar, reliably Democratic stronghold, became a pretty red part of the state. And like most states across the country where there are large metropolitan areas, like in Minneapolis, Saint Paul or the twin cities, there are suburbs that have shifted more towards a purple or even deep blue in some of the inner ring suburbs of the Twin Cities.
And so 1 1/2 percentage points is how close Trump came to winning Minnesota in 2016. President Joe Biden beat him by about seven points in 2020, and he was in the state right before the 2020 election, saying, you know, if I lose Minnesota, I'm never coming back, but he was back last week. On Friday, he gave a headline speech at a convention - a fundraiser dinner for the Republican Party of Minnesota.
LIASSON: So he gave a speech. Is his message changing? Does it look like he's trying to win over some swing voters in Minnesota?
MASTERS: You know, it wasn't too long ago that I was finishing covering the Iowa caucuses, and I covered a lot of his speeches during that time period. And I was having some deja vu remembering a lot of the stories that he tells, talking about those same points about the economy, about calling President Joe Biden weak, and also talking about the last election, relitigating what happened in 2020 when he lost to the current president and continues those false claims saying that he won and that there was widespread fraud.
LIASSON: So it doesn't sound like he's moderating his message. That's what's so interesting to me about this that he seems to be running a campaign, the kind of campaign you'd run in a primary - really, really focused on his base, not necessarily focused on expanding it.
MCCAMMON: You know, Clay, I want to understand a little bit more about why Republicans/the Trump campaign think they may have an opportunity in Minnesota this year. It sounds like it's partly looking back to past elections, right? We mentioned 2016 and the narrow gap there. And it's also about voters, right? I mean, you were talking about the ways the electorate has shifted a little bit.
MASTERS: That's right. So if you look at the primary results in Minnesota, back on Super Tuesday was when voters went to the polls here, and it was just the presidential ticket that was on the ballot, Republicans - 29% of them selected Nikki Haley. This was when she was still in the race, the former U.N. ambassador. And I spoke with a Republican strategist here in the state of Minnesota. She was also a leader in the Senate when Republicans had majority there. And she actually started talking to me about 2016. And she said - it was kind of interesting. Remember that independent candidate, Evan McMullin, when he was on the ballot in 2016? She said Evan McMullin alone got over 50,000 votes, and Donald Trump lost by 40,000.
LIASSON: If they had just voted for Trump, he would have won the state of Minnesota. So that group has gotten bigger for him, and he cannot ignore that. He may not like that, but those voters are what he needs to put himself over the top, period, end of sentence. And can he get them back? I'm not sure.
MCCAMMON: And it's not just about appealing to Nikki Haley voters or even Evan McMullin voters. It's also about some of the shifts we've been seeing across the country when it comes to non-college-educated, white voters, especially men, right?
MASTERS: Yeah. And I was talking about the Iron Range earlier, that's this big large swath of northern Minnesota full of very much what you're talking about - the blue-collar, working-class, white males. And that was a solidly blue part of the state of Minnesota for a very long time. And it's become a much more red and reliably Republican voting part of the state of Minnesota, which has, you know, really seen this big shift that has happened where you see a state that looks very, very red until you get to the population center of where the Twin Cities are and some other places like Duluth and Rochester.
LIASSON: Well, Clay, do you see any signs that the Trump campaign is actually investing in Minnesota?
MASTERS: We're seeing a lot more signs that the Biden campaign is investing in Minnesota. And also, the president has come to the state. He was with the governor of Wisconsin, a much more swingy state than Minnesota. The vice president, Kamala Harris, visited an abortion clinic in the Twin Cities. So they are investing the time. We're seeing some organizing on the Democratic side here. But it remains to be seen really how much power or how much investment, rather, the Republicans are going to put in a state like Minnesota.
LIASSON: So that's why we don't know whether this is a head fake on the part of the Trump campaign. We know that Trump likes to signal dominance, at least in the media, if not in reality, and this is part of their message that they are supremely confident that they're going to win, and they're going to win so big, they're even going to expand the map to Minnesota.
MASTERS: Yeah. And the statement that came forward from the Trump campaign, they had said that they were going to expand the map to Minnesota, and Virginia and New Jersey were the other two states that they put out there. So, I mean, this is so early in the game that they are trying to, you know, show this dominance, like you said. And they're also pointing to what they see as a - they call a weak president in Joe Biden. You know, we talked about the Haley voters on the primary side for the Republicans here in Minnesota.
On the Democratic side, 19% of those who voted in the primary election voted uncommitted. That was more than what showed up for uncommitted in Michigan. And this has mostly to do with President Joe Biden's stance or handling of the war in the Middle East right now. And so you're also seeing low voter turnout, as well. And this is a state, Minnesota, who has a track record for being in general elections, having the most voter participation. So there are a lot of elements that we just don't know how they're going to play out as the next few months roll forward as we get closer and closer to fall.
MCCAMMON: Clay, before we take a quick break, I want to ask you about another issue. You mentioned the Middle East. You know, abortion is a big issue that Democrats are pushing nationwide this year. What's the situation on the ground in Minnesota when it comes to abortion and abortion politics, and who might that favor?
MASTERS: Well, Minnesota and Illinois and the Midwest are the two states that are - have, you know, widespread abortion access. And so they're kind of seen as a state that is trying to support people who need abortions and others from other states coming here. And there was a legislative session, the 2024 legislative session just ended, and one of the failed measures that Democratic leaders in the state were trying to put forward was a constitutional amendment, a vote that would go to the people in 2026 that would have something to do with protecting abortion rights in the state Constitution.
They clearly even said that they know that that's a winning issue. They see more need for participation in the 2026 election because there's going to be a governor's race, and all the statewide elected races are going to be there. So, you know, I think it's going to be interesting. We're a number of years now from the Dobbs decision to see if that's really stuck with people when they head to the polls this year.
MCCAMMON: Right. OK, let's take a quick break. We'll be back with more in just a moment.
And we're back. Mara, these trends we've been talking about, the shifts among white, working-class, non-college voters, for example, certainly, a lot of emphasis on suburban voters. These are trends we talk about all over the country.
LIASSON: Absolutely. Education now is the starkest partisan divide - college, non-college - that's the best indicator of which party you're going to vote for.
MCCAMMON: And how does gender come into that?
LIASSON: There's always been a gender gap, and Democrats tend to have done much better with women, better than Republicans have done with men. And that's why the gender gap, in general, has favored Democrats. Abortion fuels the gender gap because there are a lot of suburban women that are Republican that might otherwise vote for Trump, but they're upset that their freedoms are being taken away, and that's an issue that works for Democrats.
MCCAMMON: Now, we have mentioned that historically, Minnesota has been a state with very high voter turnout. This election looks a little different. There is just not a lot of interest in either of these two candidates - polls suggest that. So what might that disinterest in this election mean for these bigger questions of turnout and whether Minnesota's even in play?
LIASSON: Well, let's just say one thing, that the polls have shown that Trump voters are more enthusiastic about voting for Trump. Biden voters are more enthusiastic about going to the polls to vote against Trump. So the organic enthusiasm, to the extent there is any, Trump is a little bit ahead on that count.
MASTERS: Yeah. I spoke with the Democratic chair in Minnesota just to talk through a little bit about how he sees this. His name is Ken Martin. He says, you know, while the state has a long track record of voting for Democratic presidential candidates, you know, it's been competitive for the last couple of decades. You know, he says there were 12 battleground states. It's kind of different where you look at what are actually battlegrounds. He sees Minnesota as one, and while they've managed to keep it blue, he says that's because they haven't taken it for granted. So he's insisting that a third time won't be a charm for Trump because they've beat him twice in the state. But Ken Martin said, you know, they always need to run like they're behind so that they don't, you know, come complacent or take for granted what they've been able to do in this state.
MCCAMMON: And so if Minnesota sees lower than average turnout, Mara, who does that favor?
LIASSON: Well, I guess you'd have to say it favors the Democrats only because they seem to be doing better in these low-turnout races. Off-year elections, they've won most of those, and high turnout will probably help Trump. Now, of course, that's against the conventional wisdom because Republicans, including Donald Trump, for many, many years, felt that the fewer people who turned out, the better it was for them because Republicans used to get the educated electorate. That's changed over time.
MCCAMMON: Yeah. And I'm just thinking about how this enthusiasm gap between Biden and Trump that you mentioned, Mara, factor into that. And I don't want to speculate, but, you know, you're saying Trump supporters are more excited to vote for Trump. Biden supporters are more excited to vote against Trump.
LIASSON: That's right. And both of these candidates are going to be relying on negative partisanship as a motivator for voters. We know that negative partisanship, which is simply defined as you go into the voting booth and you cast your vote to stop someone, not necessarily because you're thrilled with the guy you're voting for. That's the most powerful motivator for voters. And both candidates are going to rely on that. You can see it in their messages. This is the end of America if Biden is reelected. It's the end of democracy if Trump is elected. You know, both of them are using very existential messages - negative ones to turn out their voters. So I think that whoever can be a better player at negative partisanship probably wins this election. These are two very unpopular candidates. Large majorities of Americans, Democrat and Republican, say they wish that they had a different nominee for their party.
MCCAMMON: How much is this conversation, Clay, about 2024 and the desire among Republicans to gain ground, maybe win - probably a long shot there, and how much is it about building for the future? I mean, with these kind of purplish states, that's often the conversation. Maybe it's not just about this election. Maybe it's about two years from now, four years from now.
MASTERS: Yeah. I mean, the Republican Party of Minnesota doesn't have a very deep bench of candidates that are kind of up-and-coming. And, for example, Amy Klobuchar, the Democratic Senator from Minnesota, is on the ballot in 2024, and there was a more well-financed candidate that the Republicans looked like they were going to nominate at their convention. The party nominates a candidate ahead of when voters go to the polls. And instead of Joe Frazier this last weekend, they went with Royce White, who is a - doesn't have much of a financial war chest on him at all.
And he's a former professional basketball player, and the convention actually nominated him with reservations. And so, I mean, like, you're seeing that people, you know, behind the scenes were trying to tee up this candidate that could become more of a moderate Republican that could win against a popular Democratic incumbent senator like Amy Klobuchar, and, you know, they came up with something that's going to be even harder for them to win.
LIASSON: Yeah. And, of course, if we were going to do a sequel to this podcast, we'd go to North Carolina and show how it broke Democrats' hearts over and over again. North Carolina is kind of like the Democrats' Minnesota. Barack Obama won it in 2008. But, you know, they just haven't been able to do that again.
MCCAMMON: All right. Well, I think we're going to leave it there for today. Clay Masters of Minnesota Public Radio, always good to have you with us.
MASTERS: Likewise. Thank you.
MCCAMMON: I'm Sarah McCammon. I cover the presidential campaign.
LIASSON: I'm Mara Liasson, national political correspondent.
MCCAMMON: Thank you for listening to the NPR POLITICS PODCAST.
(SOUNDBITE OF THE BIGTOP ORCHESTRA'S "TEETER BOARD: FOLIES BERGERE (MARCH AND TWO-STEP)")
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