Biden, Trump or the couch: hear from our focus group of unenthused voters
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SUSAN DAVIS, HOST:
Hey, there. It's the NPR POLITICS PODCAST. I'm Susan Davis. I cover politics. And today on the pod, we're taking a look at what could be one of the most decisive groups of voters in this year's election - voters who disapprove of both Joe Biden and Donald Trump. It's a project Mara Liasson and I are working on, and we actually recorded a conversation about it on Thursday just before news of the Trump verdict broke. So just have that in mind when you listen. It's Mara, me and Deepa Shivaram in the host chair. So without further ado, here's Deepa.
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DEEPA SHIVARAM, BYLINE: Sue, I mean, why are we talking about these voters specifically? Who are these people? How do they fit into the broader electorate?
DAVIS: I mean, this is a group of people that, if you've been following the 2024 election, you've probably heard about a lot. They're often referred to as double haters. I'm trying not to use that term because I hear my mom voice saying to my kids, we don't use the word hate in this house. Hate's...
SHIVARAM: Double disapprovers, perhaps.
DAVIS: Hate is a strong word.
SHIVARAM: Yeah.
DAVIS: And it's...
SHIVARAM: There we go.
DAVIS: It's also just not really accurate. So Rich Thau is a bit of a focus group guru. He conducts focus groups with swing voters all over the country for different news organizations, and we asked him to do one for NPR. And Rich asked these voters to give a description of both Biden and Trump, and you get a sense that the feelings toward Biden are less visceral than they are towards Trump.
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RICH THAU: So let's start with President Biden. You're going to say the first word or phrase that comes to mind when you hear President Biden.
SHERILYN: Struggling.
AYSA: Concerned.
ROB: Senile.
BOB: Patriotic.
MIKAYA: I would want to say senile, too.
EUGENE: Old.
THAU: Next person. First thing that comes to mind - former President Trump. Eugene.
EUGENE: Jackass.
THAU: Bob.
BOB: Unhinged.
THAU: Sherilyn (ph).
SHERILYN: Not an option.
THAU: Mikaya (ph).
MIKAYA: Offensive. Definitely.
THAU: All right. Aysa (ph).
AYSA: Frightening.
THAU: Rob.
ROB: Uncensored.
MARA LIASSON, BYLINE: You can see the difference in the way they talk about Biden and the way they talk about Trump. The adjectives are much more extreme about Trump. Biden is a doddering, old guy.
SHIVARAM: Yeah.
LIASSON: So they're more disappointed in him, but they're offended by Trump.
SHIVARAM: So Mara, I mean, when you guys were getting into this story, you decided to partner with Rich Thau of Engagious and Sago, which is a market research firm. And you guys talked to about a dozen of these double disapprovers in key swing states. I mean, what were you trying to learn from these people?
LIASSON: What we're trying to learn from these people is what they might do on Election Day. These are people who don't like either candidate. The questions we had were, were they going to hold their nose and vote for Biden? Were they going to hold their nose and vote for Trump? Would they vote for a third-party candidate, or would they just stay home? And in many cases, the competition here is not another candidate - it's the couch.
SHIVARAM: And to be clear, when you guys had this conversation - a dozen folks. This is not a scientific poll, right? I mean, NPR does polling with Marist and PBS, but this is different. This is, like, anecdotal data. You're chatting with these folks. You're getting a picture of what these people are thinking, how they're feeling about the election, and that's different than polling.
LIASSON: This is very different than polling because it's not a big sample. It's just 12 people.
SHIVARAM: Right.
LIASSON: But the reason people do focus groups is to get into the minds and the brains of voters to go a little more in depth than just asking them a question where they can answer Biden or Trump.
DAVIS: Polls attempt to answer the question, how many? Our own polling tells us that double haters, double disapprovers, make up about 14% of the electorate. And in our polling, it shows them nearly split evenly between Joe Biden and Donald Trump. Joe Biden has a slight advantage. But these are also voters, if you look historically - in the 2016 election, for instance, double haters existed then, too, between Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton. And in that election, when they made up a significant chunk of the electorate, they broke pretty strongly towards Donald Trump.
SHIVARAM: So you guys talked to a dozen people, like we said. Who are they? Where did they come from?
DAVIS: OK, so we specifically asked Rich to find us swing voters in swing states, literally the deciders of this election. And all 12 of them were Trump to Biden voters, so they voted Donald Trump in 2016 to Joe Biden in 2020, and 10 of the 12 reside in what is considered a swing state, one of the seven states that was decided in 2020 by three percentage points or less.
SHIVARAM: So we have a sense of how they're feeling about Trump, how they're feeling about Biden. But they still kind of seem like they're going to vote. I mean, are they leaning one way or the other at this point? What did that seem like?
DAVIS: So in these focus groups, we did two sets of six, and Rich asked everyone if the election was held today in a binary election, who would you vote for? And when pushed, seven of the 12 said they would lean towards Biden. One of the big complicating factors and something we've talked a lot about on the pod - third parties.
SHIVARAM: Right.
DAVIS: When you then throw in the mix of Robert F. Kennedy Jr. or Jill Stein or Cornel West, that support for Biden drops down to five of the 12, which I think shows that third-party tickets on the ballots, especially in these swing states, present a bigger risk to the incumbent president.
SHIVARAM: When we talk about third-party candidates, I mean, people like Robert F. Kennedy, are these voters feeling enthusiastic about that? Is that just they don't like Biden or Trump, so they want to fall in a third-party candidate?
LIASSON: This is very hard to figure out. Some of the people in this focus group kind of said, ooh, Robert F. Kennedy could bring us together because of his family. I mean, third party is a place to land because you don't like either candidate. How long you're going to stay there and whether you actually end up pulling the lever for that person? We don't know that yet.
SHIVARAM: So it's not like they had a lot of enthusiasm, necessarily, for the third-party candidates. It was rooted in the...
LIASSON: They have enthusiasm for not voting for the other two big candidates.
SHIVARAM: Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah.
DAVIS: And this is like, look - a lot of focus groups is vibes, right? So let's just talk about the vibes for a second. I mean, the vibes are clearly, like, all 12 of them said if they could replace both candidates on the ballot, they would, which is - really tells you that...
SHIVARAM: That's really interesting.
DAVIS: They're just - they don't want these choices. There's obviously an open to third party candidates. But when Mara talks about the two risks is stay home or vote third party, in this particular group of people - and to be clear, these people skewed a little bit older, late 30s into their 50s because we were specifically looking for proven swing voters, people had - who had voted. So you probably needed a couple of elections under your belt, and they would skew a little bit older. These people were going to vote to me. To me, the risk of the older double hater is third party. The risk of the younger double hater, the lower propensity voter, is that they stay at home.
SHIVARAM: Stay at home, stay on the couch. OK, cool. We're going to take a quick break, and when we get back, we'll talk more about the issues that these double disapprovers care about.
OK. And we're back. My question is to both of you. I mean, these voters don't like Biden or Trump, right? That's what we've established. But is there a way to get a better sense maybe of how they'll lean when they vote based on certain issues, like the economy, immigration, things like that? Mara, I mean, let's start with the economy. That's something that is often seen in polling as voters' No. 1 concern this November or this year, basically. What did you hear from the folks in this group?
LIASSON: The folks in this group were very much like every other American that pollsters have talked to this year, which is they think the economy is terrible. Their own personal situation's maybe a little better, but they all - a lot of them talked about going to the grocery store. It's more expensive. And that's what they care about. This is not about the rate of inflation.
SHIVARAM: Right.
LIASSON: This is about prices. And inflation defeats presidents.
SHIVARAM: Yeah.
DAVIS: This is an issue where I think that the arc of the vibes bend toward Trump because there is this sense that when he was president, the economy was better. One of the voters also brought the reality that, like, look - there was a pandemic in there. Like, I think they're aware that there was, like, extraordinary circumstances that Joe Biden was handed. But people do tend to think that Donald Trump specifically and the Republican Party more broadly can do a better job when it comes to the economy. And look - Rich put the question to them directly.
THAU: I'd like to know who you think would do a better job managing the economy over the next four years. Trump or Biden? Who would say Trump? Four of you would. And who would say Biden? Two. Explain to me why you think Trump would do a better job. Kimberly (ph).
KIMBERLY: I know that he's run a lot of businesses into the ground, but at the same time, he is more of a business sense. And I do think that we need to start running our country more like a business.
THAU: Jennifer?
JENNIFER: Yeah, it seems like there was an unlimited writing of checks in the Biden administration, and there hasn't been a check - a check on the checks.
DAVIS: And also, both of those women initially said they would vote for Biden. But when you...
SHIVARAM: What?
DAVIS: ...Ask them who they trust more on the economy, they say Donald Trump. Good reminder - voters don't operate in straight lines.
SHIVARAM: And, Mara, you made a face. I mean, what was your...
LIASSON: Look...
SHIVARAM: ...Reaction?
LIASSON: ...I always say this. Historical rules only work till they stop working. What we thought we knew about voting behaviors - that the presidential approval rating tracks the economy, and the presidential approval rating is a proxy for the ballot for what the president is going to get in the election. Well, Donald Trump had a good economy before COVID, and he was very unpopular. Now, maybe people disapprove of Biden and will vote for him anyway. This is all very confusing.
SHIVARAM: It is confusing, and it really speaks to that Trump amnesia that the Biden campaign...
LIASSON: Sure.
SHIVARAM: ...Is often talking about...
LIASSON: Yeah.
SHIVARAM: ...Right now...
LIASSON: Yeah.
SHIVARAM: ...Where they're really out here trying to remind voters like, do you remember what it was like in 20 - do you remember the pandemic? Do you remember how unstable things were? And so that is interesting to hear that from these folks.
LIASSON: And what this tells us about this election is that because both of these guys are so unpopular - and negative partisanship, meaning you go into the voting booth to stop someone, not necessarily because you're thrilled about the guy you're voting for, is the biggest motivator of voter behavior. This is going to be an election that's based around convincing voters that the other guy would - is an existential threat to the United States.
SHIVARAM: Yeah.
DAVIS: And I believe all 12 of them are asked, do you consider your vote more for someone or against the other person? And I think all 12...
LIASSON: They all said against.
SHIVARAM: Wow.
LIASSON: Yeah.
SHIVARAM: No, that's so telling because I think the thing I often hear from voters on the road is, I want not to vote against someone. That's what they actually do want at the end of the day - is to feel like they're voting for something.
DAVIS: Yeah.
SHIVARAM: But in reality, that's not the way this election is setting up. Sue, let's go to a different issue. Another very top concern for a lot of folks this year is immigration. That often comes up as a very weak issue for President Biden. What did you hear from the folks in the room on this one?
DAVIS: You know, it's interesting because on this, there is, in some ways, consensus. All 12 of these folks believe that something needs to be done on immigration and tougher immigration laws. Again, an issue that I think that Donald Trump has an advantage, even with people who say they don't want to or will not vote for him. He gives the impression of just being tougher and stricter on immigration. But this was one of the big head-scratchers that Mara and I talked about after this. And Rich asked them, do you want to see all of the undocumented immigrants in this country deported?
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THAU: By a show of fingers, who supports Trump's plans to deport millions of undocumented immigrants if he's reelected? OK, Kimberly and Juanita are yeses. So, Juanita, how is that going to work?
JUANITA: I'm not sure, but it's a good theory. I don't see it working out actually on paper, but we do need to stop the illegals from coming in. There is a legal way to come through the U.S.
THAU: Yeah, so I get that you're trying to stop more people from coming in. How do you deport millions of people living in the U.S.? Describe for me what you - if you support it, how do you expect that to happen?
JUANITA: I'm not sure because I would love to see it happen - to get rid of some of the ones that are here illegally or give them a path right now that they could become American citizens legally and then stop more coming in.
THAU: OK, well, wait. Hold on a second.
JUANITA: OK, I'm sorry.
THAU: So there's a huge difference between - I'm playing devil's advocate now - I'm just saying there's a huge difference between giving them a path to citizenship and deporting them.
DAVIS: It is a really complicated, confusing issue, even. But people feel strongly about it, but they don't know exactly what the policy is that they want. But I will tell you this. One of my takeaways from this was if you think about the big fight on Capitol Hill earlier this year, where they tried to get a big bipartisan immigration bill to Joe Biden, and it came out of the Senate, and it was derailed in the House by Speaker Johnson and specifically Donald Trump...
SHIVARAM: Correct.
DAVIS: ...Who told Republicans, do not vote for this. I think if Joe Biden would have been handed a big immigration victory in this election, that could have been really bad for Donald Trump's campaign. And the politics of that, listening to these voters, seem very laid bare to me.
LIASSON: And when she says giving a big win to Joe Biden, not some big political win that he could spin - an actual win. It would have actually decreased illegal immigration at the border. And that's what Donald Trump was against because he needs people to be angry about what's happening on the border.
SHIVARAM: Yeah. Another issue that I wanted to bring up, of course, is abortion. These folks that you guys talked to, the dozen people, they tend to be more independent, like you said - right? - more likely to support abortion rights. That's where public opinion really lands. It seems like that would then be a boost for Democrats for Joe Biden if that's their beliefs. But it's not necessarily what you heard. I mean, like we said, people aren't entirely voting in a straight line here.
DAVIS: Sure. I mean, all 12 essentially considered themselves pro-choice when asked that question. Two of the 12 said they supported the Supreme Court decision to overturn Roe v. Wade, but they did it in sort of a legalistic way. They thought it was a bad legal precedent that the law was better to hand it back to the states. But when pushed to say like, but, wait, do you think women should have to travel outside of your state to get abortion services? - they were like, oh, no, like, I don't want anyone to be hurt. Like, on the policy of abortion, they would consider themselves pro-choice. But this is another interesting point because in the second focus group, one of the women said she was going to plan to vote for Donald Trump but then also said she considered herself pro-choice.
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THAU: By a show of fingers, for how many of you will abortion be a big factor in who you will vote for in November's presidential election? Four of you it will be a big factor. Alicia (ph), how's it going to be a big factor for you?
ALICIA: Because I don't think states should decide that. I think it should be up to the woman.
THAU: OK, so help me with this. You said you were going to vote for Trump if it's a two-way race. Trump is - wants to give it back to the states. How does that fit into your calculus?
ALICIA: It - well, I would say look at all of what he supports versus - so I guess it wouldn't necessarily make me not vote for him if he - you know, there's bigger factors that I look at in that situation.
THAU: OK. So it matters, but other things matter more.
ALICIA: Yeah.
LIASSON: And that is a really, really key thing. OK, young people care about the war in Gaza. Is that their top issue? Polls say no. Here, this woman is pro-choice, but that's not necessarily going to be the driving factor in her decision. So this is why people do focus groups because they give you a little kind of behind-the-polling-scenes insight...
SHIVARAM: Yeah, I mean...
LIASSON: ...Into voter thinking.
SHIVARAM: ...Literally, like we were just saying, like...
LIASSON: Yeah.
SHIVARAM: ...The majority of Americans support the right for a woman...
LIASSON: Yeah.
SHIVARAM: ...To have...
LIASSON: With some exceptions.
SHIVARAM: ...Access to an abortion.
LIASSON: With some restrictions.
SHIVARAM: Right. With some exceptions and some...
LIASSON: Yeah.
SHIVARAM: ...Restrictions, but then it's not like that necessarily means, OK, well, then X, Y, Z percent of...
LIASSON: Yeah.
SHIVARAM: ...People are voting for Joe Biden and Democrats.
DAVIS: Although, like, the evidence since the Supreme Court's Dobbs decision does suggest that that issue when put to voters clearly bends in the favor of Democrats. But this isn't a blanket rule, right?
SHIVARAM: This isn't a blanket rule.
DAVIS: People are complex.
LIASSON: Well, all of those people who voted to keep the right to abortion in the state Constitution in Kansas are not going to turn around and work - vote for Democrats.
SHIVARAM: True.
LIASSON: In other words, there are a lot of Republicans who are still going to vote for Republican candidates, but given a referendum on abortion, they'll vote for the abortion rights side.
SHIVARAM: People are complicated. That is the major takeaway. One other issue that I wanted to touch on because I feel like I hear this a lot from folks when I go out on the road - the state of democracy.
DAVIS: Yeah.
SHIVARAM: This is something that the Biden campaign certainly is talking about all the time. They literally just had, like, the police officers from January 6 are on, like a nationwide tour, going to Nevada, going to Arizona, trying to talk about, you know, protecting democracy. How much of that was on people's minds in this focus group?
DAVIS: An important factor here. And I made sure Rich asked these voters this, if they believed the 2020 election was decided fairly. And all 12 said they did. So there's no dispute on that outcome. So it just kind of gives you a sense...
SHIVARAM: Yeah.
DAVIS: ...Of where they're coming from. One thing that was really striking to me, especially because a supermajority of these voters consider themselves political independents, January 6 really doesn't resonate with them. It's not...
SHIVARAM: Interesting.
DAVIS: ...Something that any of them brought up...
LIASSON: Yeah.
DAVIS: ...Independently when asked about Trump or any of - sort of democracy. But at the same time, they were asked, how do you feel about the state of American democracy? And the answer is not good.
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THAU: Give me a word or a phrase - don't blurt it out - to describe the current state of American democracy.
JENNIFER: At risk.
THAU: Alicia.
ALICIA: Going downhill.
UNIDENTIFIED PERSON #1: Hurting, but not dead.
UNIDENTIFIED PERSON #2: Extremely fragile.
THAU: Juanita?
JUANITA: Eerie.
SHIVARAM: One thing I want to ask, though, is a lot of times for folks on the Democrat side, on the Republican side, they have a different sense of what a safe democracy means or a healthy democracy means, right? Like, a lot of liberals are - you know, ones to point at January 6 and be like, I'm worried about a peaceful transfer of power. You ask some Republicans - they're going to be like, well, there's election fraud. It's rampant.
DAVIS: But this is why I asked the 2020 question - right? - because I think that that is a good test point to say, do you believe the election was decided fairly? Because a lot of the response on the Republican side when you press on that if they don't believe the election was decided fairly is, of course, you think democracy at risk - is at risk if you think an election was...
SHIVARAM: Yeah.
DAVIS: ...Stolen from your candidate. So these people are on the level. They see that the election was fair. They don't believe that there was fraud. But there is - and I think all of this speaks, like, to Mara's point about negative campaigning and negative partisanship. But just generally speaking, I think that Americans and these voters in particular feel super negative about the state of their country's health in terms of the economy and also super negative about just the state of the American experiment, and that speaks to just the climate of the 2024 election that is unique.
SHIVARAM: We're going to leave it there for today. I'm Deepa Shivaram. I cover the White House.
DAVIS: I'm Susan Davis. I cover politics.
LIASSON: And I'm Mara Liasson, senior national political correspondent.
SHIVARAM: And thank you for listening to the NPR POLITICS PODCAST.
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