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I keep an eye on a polling average from 538, an average of polls which shows Robert F. Kennedy Jr. generally around nine or 10% of the vote. Exactly how many people support his independent candidacy in the end, in key swing states, could affect who wins the presidential election. NPR's Stephen Fowler reports, RFK backers say they will vote for him.
STEPHEN FOWLER, BYLINE: Have you ever heard of a Rorschach test, where someone's given a series of ink blots and asked what they see? That's one way to look at Robert F. Kennedy Jr.'s presidential campaign as he looks to be an alternative choice for those who don't like President Biden or former President Donald Trump. So what do his supporters see?
SUSAN PARKER: He inspires me personally, and I enjoy listening to him talk. I have a little bit of a cringe factor when I listen to the other two major candidates.
FOWLER: Susan Parker came from Oklahoma with her daughter to Nashville this month for a comedy show put on by the campaign. Despite never donating to a presidential campaign before, she's maxed out contributions after listening to Kennedy speak on various longform interviews he's given about his political philosophies.
PARKER: I feel like I've gotten to know him, you know, as a person. I see him think and everything. So that's what excites me about him being in this race.
FOWLER: Parker, clad in a shirt that reads, the remedy is Kennedy, 2024, is one of so many RFK voters that see him as an important third choice who represents issues that are most important to them. Many people like Kennedy's messaging around health and more specifically vaccines. It's part of his campaign's embrace of skepticism about the government's role in everything.
BRITTANY RUIZ: Anti, you know, corruption, anti-colluding with Big Pharma, anti-all the big alphabet agencies being involved in our day-to-day lives.
FOWLER: That's Brittany Ruiz from Franklin, Tenn. She considers Bobby a family friend through years of work in opposition to vaccine mandates. It's important to note Kennedy's supporters interviewed by NPR push back against claims that he is anti-vaccine or that they are either. Outside of a recent rally in Austin, Tony Farmer points to Kennedy's record as an environmental lawyer, cleaning up the Hudson River and suing Monsanto, as something that gets overlooked.
TONY FARMER: This dude is a bada** activist, and it seems like all people know about, who haven't researched him, is like, he's anti-vax. He's anti-vaccine. He's anti-vaccine. And when you actually listen to him talk, he's not anti-vaccine. He wants safe vaccines.
FOWLER: But if you listen to him talk or his vice presidential pick Nicole Shanahan, skepticism of vaccinations and conspiracies about their effects dominate campaign conversations more than mentions of Monsanto or global conflict, inflation or immigration. Like the nebulous ink blots of a Rorschach test, Kennedy's voters say they see a different side of him than what the mainstream media, Democrats and Republicans portray about the independent candidate and his stances and believe their beliefs are painted unfairly too. Cathleen Yanco in Austin...
CATHLEEN YANCO: Right now, both political parties, Democrat and Republican, I honestly don't trust what they're saying. I do question everything I hear now. I feel like my eyes have been opened since learning about Kennedy.
FOWLER: Many of them feel like the two major parties don't have a place for normal people who don't have extreme views. Tony Farmer says, his disconnect comes on foreign policy.
FARMER: I feel like I'm staying still for the most part, and the Democratic Party is just moving further and further left, and I start, like, actually resonating more with my Republican friends because the Democratic Party has moved so far.
FOWLER: And there are people who see Kennedy's independent run as a healthy thing for democracy, even if he doesn't win. Here's Susan Parker again.
PARKER: There will be victory to be claimed because I think a lot of people will take notice that didn't take notice before, like myself. And it's very exciting to finally kind of be part of an election process.
FOWLER: On that note, every Kennedy supporter interviewed by NPR did not think they were wasting their vote despite no real path to victory and despite the likelihood that his presence could affect whether Biden or Trump wins. Cathleen Yanco...
YANCO: I don't want to be told, well, if you support Kennedy, then that means Trump's going to get into office. Well, we need some changes, and unless we start somewhere, even if that means the potential for someone I detest getting into office, so be it.
FOWLER: Yanco and Tony Farmer have previously voted for Democrats, Brittany Ruiz and Susan Parker have voted for Republicans, and it's hard to tell how the Kennedy-shaped ink blot should be interpreted in the context of a Trump-Biden rematch in November and which candidate is likely to take more of a hit.
Stephen Fowler, NPR News, Nashville, Tenn.
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