< Meet 'double disapprovers': swing voters who could decide the presidential election

STEVE INSKEEP, HOST:

Many Americans do not want to vote for either President Biden or former President Trump this year. You might even be one of them. Many people told pollsters they disliked their choices even before last week's verdict in a criminal trial for former President Trump. So in recent weeks, we assembled a small group of such voters to hear what's on their minds. NPR's Mara Liasson and Susan Davis are in our studio. Good morning, guys.

SUSAN DAVIS, BYLINE: Good morning.

MARA LIASSON, BYLINE: Good morning.

INSKEEP: It's great to see you both. Mara, how many voters are dissatisfied with their choices?

LIASSON: A lot of them - about 14% of the electorate, according to NPR's polling partner Marist. In the latest poll that Marist did for us, they split evenly between the two candidates. The same number of them are represented nationally as in the swing states. This isn't a new idea. Double haters were around in 2016. They broke for Trump. They were a much smaller amount in 2020, about 3%. The question this year is, how do they split? Do they hold their noses and vote for Trump or hold their noses and vote for Biden, or do they vote for a third party, or maybe they just stay home? And it's possible that the real competition here is not the other candidates - it's the couch.

INSKEEP: OK, with that question in the air, Sue, how did you try to find out what's on these voters' minds?

DAVIS: So we asked focus group guru Rich Thau with the public opinion research firm Engagious, along with Sago, a market research firm, to put together a couple of focus groups with proven swing voters who reside in swing states. Now, we just referred to these voters as double haters, but it might be more accurate to call them double disapprovers. A lot of them feel generally positive about Joe Biden as a person, less so about Donald Trump. They're just really disappointed that these are the options on the ballot. All 12 of the voices you're going to hear were Trump-to-Biden voters, and 10 of the 12 live in a swing state that helped decide the 2020 election.

INSKEEP: What are things that you heard that I should be listening for now here?

LIASSON: Well, first of all, don't forget this is anecdata. It's not a scientific poll with a giant sampling. It's 12 people.

INSKEEP: Right.

LIASSON: But my biggest takeaway was negative partisanship, how much that is the driver of this election. People are going into the voting booth to vote against someone to stop that person from getting into office, not necessarily because they love the guy they're voting for. And that is why, because both of these candidates are unpopular, they are going to be spending so much time and money trying to disqualify their opponent. Remember, Biden always says, compare me to the alternative, not to the almighty.

INSKEEP: So what do you hear in this group, Sue?

DAVIS: Today, Biden appears to have an advantage with them. Seven of the 12 said if the election was today, they'd vote for him. But that drops to five voters when given third-party options. That suggests that is a much bigger electoral risk for the incumbent president. Steve, let's listen to a bit of what these voters had to say as Rich asks for their thoughts on the candidates.

(SOUNDBITE OF ARCHIVED RECORDING)

RICH THAU: So let's start with President Biden. I'm looking for the first word or phrase that comes to mind when you hear President Biden. Cherlyn, what's yours?

CHERLYN: Struggling.

THAU: Asa.

ASA: Concerned.

THAU: OK. Rob.

ROB: Senile.

THAU: Bob.

BOB: Patriotic.

THAU: Nikaiya.

NIKAIYA: I was going to say senile, too.

THAU: Eugene.

EUGENE: Old.

THAU: Next person, first thing that comes to mind - former President Trump.

EUGENE: Jackass.

BOB: Unhinged.

CHERLYN: Not an option.

NIKAIYA: Offensive, definitely.

ASA: Freak.

ROB: Uncensored.

THAU: OK. So for a moment, let's imagine the election is tomorrow. By a show of fingers. If these were your only two choices, who would not vote? Asa, why would you not vote?

ASA: I find it hard to believe that in the entire nation of millions and millions of people that we are right back to the line of two people. I don't understand how we end up with just two people.

THAU: So the four of you, who would take Biden - Nikaiya, tell me why you would take Biden.

NIKAIYA: Well, he really didn't do much this time, but I would be willing to give him a second chance for a number of reasons, and at the top of my list, I definitely need my student loans wiped out.

THAU: Got it. Thank you. Bob.

BOB: I have much more confidence in Biden's ability to represent the country in foreign affairs. I think that from an integrity perspective, he is by far the better choice.

THAU: Rob, why would you take Trump?

ROB: The economy was better. Immigration was better controlled.

THAU: Got it. For all six of you, by a show of fingers, who wishes that neither Trump nor Biden were running this year? All six of you.

DAVIS: And in the second focus group, all six voters again said they wished neither man was running. Rich pushed them on issues like the economy, immigration and abortion.

(SOUNDBITE OF ARCHIVED RECORDING)

THAU: Who would say that the U.S. economy right now is in lousy shape? Wow, all six of you. So economists are telling us that our economy is thriving. It is surging. Kimberly, what do you see that they don't see?

KIMBERLY: They must not be going to the grocery store and have kids to feed. I just went yesterday with my son, and the prices at the store are just unattainable.

THAU: Juanita.

JUANITA: The same thing. I live on a fixed income, and just trying to go to the store to buy groceries or get my medication, it's impossible in what I make.

THAU: I'm going to change topics. By a show of fingers, who's concerned about the situation at America's southern border? All six of you. So I'd like to know, who thinks that Trump would do a better job handling the situation at the border? Four of you. Juanita, why did you say Trump would do a better job?

JUANITA: At least he was trying to do something. It doesn't seem like Biden's trying to do anything at all. I don't necessarily like his tactics and - but at least, like I said, he was trying to do something.

THAU: OK. Jennifer.

JENNIFER: I would agree with that. He was making some kind of effort, although it was very controversial - I'm going to put up a wall. He was having some kind of success or at least making some effort to make a change.

THAU: By a show of fingers, for how many of you will abortion be a big factor in who you'll vote for in November's presidential election? Four of you it will be a big factor. Alicia (ph), how is it going to be a big factor for you?

ALICIA: Because I don't think states should decide that. I think it should be up to the woman.

THAU: OK. So help me with this. You said you were going to vote for Trump if it's a two-way race. Trump is - wants to give it back to the states. How does that fit into your calculus?

ALICIA: It - well, I would say look at all of what he supports versus - so I guess it wouldn't necessarily make me not vote for him if he - you know, there's bigger factors that I look at in that situation.

THAU: OK, so it matters, but other things matter more?

ALICIA: Yeah.

THAU: OK. If each of you had to place a $50 bet on the outcome of this election, show of fingers, who thinks that Trump is going to win this election? Five of you. Brian, you put your money on Biden. OK.

INSKEEP: Great stuff. Two focus groups presented to us by NPR's Mara Liasson and Sue Davis. They were conducted by Rich Thau, who ran them for NPR News, and he's on the line. Welcome.

THAU: Great to be here.

INSKEEP: How do these people we just heard compare with people in many, many other focus groups you've conducted?

THAU: Well, we've been doing these focus groups each month with Trump-to-Biden voters, people who are basically double haters, double disapprovers, and they sound very similar. There's a consistency month over month that we hear that's truly remarkable.

INSKEEP: Some people who dislike these voters may think of them as low-information voters. Do you see them that way?

THAU: I would say that they are generally not paying close attention to what's going on day to day politically.

INSKEEP: OK. Where are they getting their news?

THAU: They get them from all over the place. They get it from major news outlets. They get it from local news outlets. They get it from social media. There's a huge splinterization that drives the lack of cohesion in how they view the world collectively as a group.

INSKEEP: OK. When you think about all these voters you've listened to, and then you pull out and you read the news and you hear what the presidential candidates are saying, how do their appeals compare to the people they're appealing to?

THAU: Well, that's the huge gulf that we heard. For example, we heard that only 1 of 12 of these voters in these focus groups knew what President Biden has planned for the next four years if he gets reelected. So clearly, some of the messages that are coming from the campaigns are not getting through to these voters.

INSKEEP: How appealing are third-party candidates such as RFK Jr. to these people?

THAU: They're appealing largely because they're not Trump or Biden. These folks are so desperate for a third-party alternative that they're willing to seriously consider candidates that they know very little about.

INSKEEP: I want to pull out from the candidates specifically. Clearly, they're disappointed with the presidential nominees of the major parties, but how do they feel about the direction of the country?

THAU: They're very down on the direction of the country, mainly because they're down on the economy. Most of these voters, when talking to them, when they describe the economy, it's as though we're in May of 1932, as opposed to May of 2024. They think the economy is in horrible shape, inflation is ravaging their lives, and they can barely make ends meet.

INSKEEP: I want to take seriously what people are saying because everybody is paying higher prices than they were a few years ago. That feels real. But is there another level of this where people are in some way being deceived?

THAU: Well, if they're being deceived, they don't seem to realize that they're being deceived. They seem to take it as axiomatic that they're paying more for groceries now and more for gasoline than they were when Biden took office, and they can't afford it, and they're complaining about it.

INSKEEP: It's normal that the president of the United States, the incumbent, whoever it is, would face the responsibility for people feeling that way, isn't that right?

THAU: Generally, it is. I mean, they understand that the pandemic had a huge impact on prices. But for them, it's the overall sense that things are spinning out of control, not just in terms of the economy, but in terms of world events, wars overseas, and a lot of that basically falls on Biden's doorstep, combined with their sense that Biden isn't up to the job.

INSKEEP: I want to ask you about one other thing. We heard one person there say that her view on abortion was clearly not Donald Trump's view on abortion, but that she was likely to vote for Trump because she takes a complicated view of multiple issues, and she's thinking about other things. Do you find that most people do wrestle with and ultimately make a fairly sophisticated choice about who to vote for?

THAU: I think a lot of people do wrestle with issues. The fact of the matter is, though, a lot of this is driven by personalities, and they've had a chance to see Trump as president and Biden as president, and they're rendering an opinion based upon what they've seen. And for a lot of them, they're so disappointed with those two choices that they're wrestling with either not voting or voting for a third-party candidate. And that's the biggest challenge that the two major-party candidates are facing in this election.

INSKEEP: OK. Rich Thau, thanks so much.

THAU: Thank you.

INSKEEP: Rich Thau of Engagious Research, which partnered with NPR News to conduct focus groups. And we're going back to these same voters just before Election Day to find out where they land.

(SOUNDBITE OF MELODIESINFONIE'S SONG, "STAY SOFT")

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