LEILA FADEL, HOST:
President Biden and former President Trump have their first debate next week, and the race is essentially tied. That's according to the NPR/PBS News/Marist poll that's out today. Though most voters have decided who they will vote for, some say they could still change their minds. Let's talk more about this with NPR's Ashley Lopez. Good morning, Ashley.
ASHLEY LOPEZ, BYLINE: Good morning.
FADEL: So tell us more about that head-to-head number with Biden and Trump.
LOPEZ: Well, I mean, this race is still pretty much a toss-up. Both Biden and Trump got 49% support from registered voters who were surveyed from across the country in this poll. Mind you, there is a margin of error here that's a couple of percentage points, and when the survey was last conducted, in May, Biden had a slight edge, something like 2 percentage points. But that was also within that margin of error, which means this race essentially remains a tie.
FADEL: OK, so the top-line numbers aren't changing a lot...
LOPEZ: Yeah.
FADEL: ...From month to month, but is there anything changing among particular voting groups that stands out?
LOPEZ: I mean, something that I think that's notable is that in a way, this election is, like, getting less interesting. And by that, I mean some of these unusual electoral patterns that we've been seeing in the polls up until now are sort of reverting back to their traditional corners, right? A good example of this is Biden overperforming among white voters, which is pretty unique for Democratic candidates as of late. In last month's poll, Trump had a 6-percentage-point lead among those voters. As of this month, Trump's lead has doubled to a 12-point lead. And for Biden, you know, he's starting to do a little better with nonwhite voters. This is a key part of that coalition that got him elected in 2020 that he has been doing pretty poorly with lately, particularly on issues related to Gaza and the ongoing war in the Middle East. Last month, Biden had an 11-point advantage among nonwhite voters, and now that lead is about 18 points.
FADEL: So as I mentioned, next week is the first televised debate between Biden and Trump for this year's election. Is there a chance some voters could be swayed one way or the other by what they hear in this debate?
LOPEZ: You know, so most voters have decided who they're going to vote for and aren't going to budge on that, but about 9% of the people who participated in the poll said they haven't made up their mind about who they'll vote for yet. And probably more notable is that about 25% of those surveyed said they have a good idea who they're going to vote for, but they could still change their mind. Lee Miringoff, who directs the Marist poll, told me that he thinks this isn't that surprising, though, considering that there are, like, still so many months to go before the election.
LEE MIRINGOFF: There are, in the context of a political debate or two, the political conventions still to happen, so some voters are more likely to tell us, well, they're going to see how things play out.
LOPEZ: And in particular, the poll found that younger voters and those nonwhite voters we were talking about were more likely than other groups to say their vote could change.
FADEL: OK, so those could be crucial voting blocs. This is also the first poll Marist has conducted since Trump's criminal conviction. Did that have any impact on the results?
LOPEZ: You know, it really didn't have that much of an impact - according to the polling, at least. Lee Miringoff with Marist told me that Trump's legal troubles in general have made both sides, like, dig in a little more to the views they already had. If anything, Trump's criminal conviction might have influenced some independent voters, maybe. President Biden's support went from 42% last month with independents to now 50%, but, you know, independent voters can be influenced by a lot of issues, and who knows how much this will matter to them in November.
FADEL: NPR's Ashley Lopez. Thank you, Ashley.
LOPEZ: Yeah, thank you.
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