A MARTÍNEZ, HOST:
Despite President Biden's dismal debate performance two weeks ago, the race for the presidency remains unchanged.
SACHA PFEIFFER, HOST:
That's the big takeaway from a new NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist poll out this morning.
MARTÍNEZ: Joining us to discuss the results of the poll is NPR senior political editor and correspondent Domenico Montanaro. So is all that Democratic angst unfounded?
DOMENICO MONTANARO, BYLINE: Well, you know, I mean, there's still a lot for Democrats to be concerned about, clearly, with the way Biden is able to present himself. But despite that bad debate performance, as you noted, and the multiple Democratic members who now say they're worried about Biden at the top of the ticket, the race is statistically unchanged according to our poll. It found that Biden actually gained a point from last month's Marist survey when it was 49-49 - dead heat between him and Trump. Now it's Biden ever so narrowly ahead 50 to 48. Biden does slip a little when third parties are introduced, with Trump ahead by just one point. But listen to what we're talking about here. Two points, one point, all of that is within the poll's margin of error, as this race has been the entire time. And that's maybe the biggest conclusion here that nothing has really changed wildly since the debate.
MARTÍNEZ: So how is he doing this?
MONTANARO: Well, President Biden is buoyed by older voters and college-educated white voters in particular. You know, this was true before the debate. It appears they've mostly stuck with him. And this is different than 2020, when Trump won college-educated white men, for example. These groups, in large measure, dislike Trump a lot. Importantly, they are among the highest-propensity voters. You know they vote at some of the highest rates of any group. So unlike with other groups Biden is struggling with - for example, younger voters, nonwhite voters - they're not likely to stay home this group. You know, with younger voters and nonwhite voters, especially younger Latino and Black men, it isn't so much Biden versus Trump as it is Biden versus the couch.
MARTÍNEZ: Then, Domenico, other surveys have found that President Biden has slipped a little bit. So how do we square all of these things together?
MONTANARO: Well, you know, what pollsters say - and we all know this - is we're in a really hyperpolarized landscape. People have very locked-in views of both of these men. Even though other national surveys, you're seeing the difference, you know, really be so marginal. You know, the - our poll and others generally have about a three- to four-point margin of error, meaning the results could be three points higher, could be three points lower. We can't tell how other polls are being conducted or weighting, you know, their surveys, but they might be conducting them somewhat slightly differently.
Within our poll, the one thing that is really important and notable is that two-thirds of Americans say what's more concerning is to have a president who does not tell the truth than to have one who's too old to do the job. Sixty-eight said that not telling the truth was a bigger problem. So even though we certainly saw in the survey that a majority of people think Biden doesn't have the mental fitness to be president, a majority say he does have the character to be president, when a majority say that Trump does not.
MARTÍNEZ: All right. So if it winds up not being President Biden, what do the polls say about the other potential Democratic replacements?
MONTANARO: Yeah. This was really interesting because everyone does about the same as Biden. You know, California Governor Gavin Newsom did exactly the same as Biden, 50 to 48, when we tested him. Vice President Harris was at 50-49 over Trump. Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer was tied. Newsom did slightly better with independents than Harris and Whitmer. And, you know, he's been on Fox News quite a bit, so there might be some exposure there to those voters. Of course, any of those candidates certainly have more of a capability of prosecuting the case against former President Trump coherently and defending themselves, and that's something that Biden has really struggled with and a big reason why so many Democrats, you know, who want him to step aside say that he should.
MARTÍNEZ: NPR political correspondent Domenico Montanaro. Thanks a lot.
MONTANARO: You're welcome.
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