Will Michigan vote Harris or Trump? These factors could be key Vice President Harris needs to win back Michigan voters President Biden looked poised to lose. Donald Trump’s appeal remains strong here, but he’s not without his own struggles.

Gaza War Sways Michigan

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LEILA FADEL, HOST:

Michigan is one of those key states where a few thousand votes could easily decide the election. When President Biden was the Democratic candidate, he was poised to lose a lot of the large Arab and Muslim American voting bloc here, along with some other progressives that typically go Democrat. It's something we heard repeatedly back in February, right ahead of the primary.

BRIAN MCCLUSKEY: I am going to not vote at the top of the ticket.

FADEL: And why are you leaving...

MCCLUSKEY: Palestine.

FADEL: Oh.

MCCLUSKEY: Period. That's it.

FADEL: Some 100,000 people voted uncommitted in that Democratic primary to send that message. Today, though, as people mark one year since Hamas attacked Israel, killing about 1,200 people and sparking an Israeli offensive in Gaza that's killed tens of thousands of Palestinians, that united voice on Gaza is fractured with Kamala Harris at the top of the ticket and the war expanding into parts of Lebanon that so many people here have ties to.

We just pulled up to the Islamic Center of America. This is the largest mosque in the country. The parking lot is fully packed. There are people in black coming in and out. They're mourning a Lebanese American man who was killed in southern Lebanon. That's how close this war is to this community.

The family of Kamel Ahmad Jawad asked us to give them their privacy, so we stayed in the car. This funeral is just one indication of the grief in this area. In Dearborn, there was a recent vigil.

(SOUNDBITE OF ARCHIVED RECORDING)

UNIDENTIFIED PERSON: (Singing in non-English language).

FADEL: On the walls of the Black Box coffee shop are the colors of the Lebanese and Palestinian flags.

There's a poster of just absolute destruction and a man screaming in pain. And it's stamped with the words, made in America.

At a cafe, we meet the co-founder of the movement that rallied so many voters in that primary to vote uncommitted. Abbas Alawieh's face is drawn.

ABBAS ALAWIEH: Someone asks, how are you? And I have to hold myself back from breaking down because it's, you know, we're not OK. Just not OK.

FADEL: He does what so many people here in Dearborn do now.

ALAWIEH: Two, three cousins in the village that I'm from.

FADEL: He begins to list the loved ones that have been killed in recent Israeli airstrikes, the family members displaced by the intense bombings.

ALAWIEH: My grandmother, I was talking to her this morning. And she said, if I die in this strange place, then it'll be hard.

FADEL: I see your hands shaking.

ALAWIEH: It's such a tough moment.

FADEL: Yeah.

ALAWIEH: It feels like a moment of impossibility.

FADEL: When we spoke in February, you were organizing a campaign to pressure this administration to change course on Gaza. And now this conflict has expanded into your own family's country of origin. So now that the candidate has changed, what are you going to do?

ALAWIEH: Yeah. I and other organizers are working through a lot, trying to be good Democrats and provide good political strategy while also dealing with the pain. When she became the candidate, we made this offer that if you change the policy, then we'll automatically endorse and mobilize. And if you can't change the policy, then tell us what it is that you would do. Just give us something. And not only did they not give us anything, they also actively worked to push voters for whom this is a top issue away. That's what it feels like. That's what it feels like when they didn't allow a Palestinian American speaker at the DNC. That's what it feels like when the vice president's statement about what's happening in Lebanon right now makes zero mention of the civilians who've been killed there.

FADEL: So your - the message you got from this campaign is...

ALAWIEH: The message was, yeah, we understand that you won't be endorsing. That's not something we need.

FADEL: Do you think they don't need you?

ALAWIEH: I think they are probably making their own internal calculations. I hope they're not wrong about it because if they are, then they will be delivering Donald Trump, and I'm very worried about that.

FADEL: He's voting for Harris with a sense of despair. He thinks life would get worse under Trump. It's a choice that has isolated him in a city where so many are angry at the administration for continuing to send weapons to Israel that are being used in Gaza and now in Lebanon, where Israel says it's going after Hezbollah. All those voters he helped mobilize just a few months ago are being left on the table, he says, in a state where Trump and Harris are neck and neck. Across the coffee shop, Samraa Luqman is eager to pick them up.

SAMRAA LUQMAN: I have endorsed Trump, yes. And this is coming from somebody who wrote in Bernie Sanders in 2020. That's how far left I was.

FADEL: Luqman is a Yemeni American community organizer who grew up in the shadow of a steel mill. She says she met with former president and Republican candidate Donald Trump recently and took a picture.

LUQMAN: My son when he saw the picture of Trump - I showed it to him, the selfie - he said, ew, Mama. (Laughter) And I said, Deen, baba, he said he's going to stop the war. He said, really? I said, yes. He goes, all right, that's it. We have to vote for him (laughter). It's just, like, you're so...

FADEL: She says that promise came from Trump, the same man who has publicly criticized Harris and Biden for calling for a cease-fire, has said Israel should, quote, "finish the job" and promised to bring back a travel ban that targeted predominantly Muslim majority countries.

FADEL: Did you believe him?

LUQMAN: Believe him or not, if there is a 99% chance that Trump is going to continue the genocide, and I have to weigh it against 100% chance that it's going to continue under Harris, I'm going to take the 99% chance.

FADEL: Now, people here don't describe what's happening in Gaza as a war. They call it genocide. The International Court of Justice hasn't yet ruled on whether Israel's war in Gaza constitutes a genocide, and Israel denies it.

LUQMAN: It hurts. Hurts a lot. That hurt has transformed into rage. I am absolutely enraged. I will do everything in my power to ensure Harris loses. Everything. And I'm still a Democrat.

FADEL: Luqman says some in Her Muslim community had started turning away from Democrats about a year before the war started. Debates around banning certain LGBTQ books in public school libraries - it brought some more in line with conservatives. She sits at this coffee shop, looking at polling charts and voting stats.

LUQMAN: I've, you know, looked at the numbers, and I've made the political calculation that we do need to endorse Trump in spite of our conscience. You're going to have to endorse the opposition in order to ensure her loss. That is paramount. That is more important than anything. And if he wins, the goal is not 2024. I don't anticipate there's going to be much change in rhetoric or policy. The goal is 2028. By 2028, if Muslims are credited with the swinging of an election, imagine the political strength we're going to have. Both Democrats and Republicans are going to be vying for our vote.

FADEL: There are an estimated 200,000 registered Muslim voters in Michigan, and some of that overlaps with the about 300,000 that claim Middle Eastern and North African ancestry. Those numbers can decide an election. Kamala Harris doesn't appear to be winning over many of them, but there is a candidate saying what people here want to hear.

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JILL STEIN: We will free Palestine.

(CHEERING)

FADEL: Jill Stein, a third-party candidate who has no chance of winning in this two-party system. But she could take a big bite out of Harris' razor-thin lead in Michigan.

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STEIN: This genocide will be ended.

FADEL: Her message is resonating...

MAHAMU TALIB: If I am going to vote, it's going to be for Jill Stein.

FADEL: ...With a lawyer in west Dearborn, Mahamu Talib (ph). He had a coffee in one hand and a baby in the other. He said he has family who have been killed and displaced in Lebanon.

TALIB: I can't, as a Muslim or just a human in general, in good conscience, vote for either side.

FADEL: Or a Palestinian American. Shehab Shehab (ph), whose wife, Nora Samarahi (ph), fled war in Iraq as a child and is triggered by the images of so many killed kids.

NORA SAMARAHI: I voted for Joe Biden previously, and I can't help but feel like, did I help put with this? Like, did I help put him in power to make these decisions?

SHEHAB SHEHAB: Maybe we'll vote for Jill. I mean, she says it how it is, right? It's a genocide.

FADEL: The Harris campaign is running out of time to win these voters over. In the last few days, the campaign has made overtures. Harris met with some American Muslims and Arab Americans over an hour away in Flint. She also put out a statement about suffering in Lebanon. The campaign told NPR Harris is committed to earn every vote and that she has been steadfast in her support for American Muslims, quote, "including ensuring that they can live free from the hateful policies of the Trump administration." Some American Muslims view this as Harris making a real effort despite having to uphold Biden's policies.

MIKA'IL STEWART SAADIQ: I'm not supporting Kamala Harris because I'm afraid of Trump. I see her as a great candidate.

FADEL: Mika'il Stewart Saadiq is a Black Muslim leader born and raised in Detroit and 1 of 25 imams from across the country that endorsed Harris in an open letter.

SAADIQ: I don't think it's fair that we lay the blame of the mess of eight years of older white men at the feet of a Black woman who's saying cease-fire now before the president said it. We've seen what Trump can do. We've seen what Biden can do. Let's see what she can do.

FADEL: Now, he voted uncommitted in the primary. But once Harris came on, he got behind her.

SAADIQ: I respect people's righteous indignation in people saying, I can't - I just can't vote. I'm never going to try and convince a Palestinian American that they should understand my political calculus. I'm not going to do that. But then, when it comes to Trump and the MAGA beast at the gate again, we ask the question, OK, now, are you asking me to sacrifice myself? Because remember, anti-Black racism, usually when you're darker, you get it the worst.

FADEL: In the fashion of a preacher, he turns to his faith to make his point.

SAADIQ: You know, the parable from the prophet Saleh al-Salam, where he talked about the people on the boat. We're all in the same boat. You know, we are Americans, right? And the prophet Saleh al-Salam, he talked about how people at the bottom of the boat, they want water. So they're like, hey, we have an idea. We're going to bust a hole in the bottom of the boat and get water. He said if the people at the upper level don't stop them, then everybody sinks. So in this hysterical political climate, there's some of us that say, OK, don't put the hole in the bottom of the boat. Don't sink everybody.

FADEL: With 29 days to go to the election and the war expanding, most Arab and Muslim voters we met in this battleground state say it already feels like they're sinking. This is NPR News.

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