BJP poised to get third term; both BJP and Congress may register small gains in vote share

In continuation of the reports by Lokniti-CSDS in this paper (The Hindu, April 11-13) the BJP seems to have held on its core bastions and warded off the challenge elsewhere. This is the most dominant trend picked up by Lokniti’s post-election survey conducted by visiting the homes of nearly 20,000 respondents selected through systematic random sampling. As we await the actual counting of votes on Tuesday, Lokniti’s post-election survey (see box for details) confirms the comfortable edge that the BJP enjoys in the 18th parliamentary election, and is set to form the government for a third term in a row. The Lokniti Team will bring out systematic analyses of various factors that may have contributed to this trend. Our survey suggests that both BJP and Congress will add a little bit to their respective vote shares from the previous election (37.4% and 19.5%, respectively) to poll 40% and 23%, respectively. A note of caution is in order here. While the gains for both Congress and BJP are in the range of 3% to 4%, the margin of error for this calculation of vote shares is ±3.08.

Even as the BJP holds an edge in terms of vote share and is likely to add to its vote share by around three percentage points over the last election, the Congress too, will refuse to recede. An equal increase of about three per cent votes will ensure that the Congress as a party will remain in the reckoning, although as a distant second. Thus, though the Congress may gain votes compared to its debacle in 2014, that gain might not be sufficient to shake the BJP. This fact, and the spatial spread of votes, will determine the seat shares of these parties. A limited but significant accretion to the vote shares of both parties hints at the attrition of some of the smaller parties.

Also read: Lokniti CSDS pre-poll survey for 2024 Lok Sabha elections: a package

The BJP made every effort this time to make an impact in both States of the east, and of the south. These efforts are likely to pay off with BJP’s vote in these regions increasing compared with last time. On the other hand, for the Congress, its gains are likely to be rather chaotically spread across a few States, perhaps not enough for the party to make an impressive gain in terms of seats. This asymmetry of performance is likely to help the BJP and disappoint the Congress.

The Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) is Congress’ ally only in Gujarat, Haryana and Delhi; and the Trinamool Congress (TMC) only in Uttar Pradesh. 

Also Read : CSDS-Lokniti 2024 pre-poll survey | Key decisions and political implication for BJP

Ever since the BJP re-emerged as a dominant player, the fate of State parties has been hanging in balance. But the compulsions of the Congress to enter into alliances in most States, and the corresponding caution taken by the BJP to fortify the National Democratic Alliance (NDA), has ensured that for the State parties, the outcome tomorrow will be a temporary breather. Many State parties will be poised to play an important part, either in the ruling coalition or in the Opposition coalition.

These, of course, are the trends from the survey. On Tuesday, we shall get to know the picture emerging from actual count of millions of votes cast over the past seven weeks. That will be followed by Lokniti’s analysis of how that outcome was shaped.

Also read: Exit poll 2024 highlights

How the Lokniti study was conducted

The Lokniti programme of the Centre for the Study of Developing Societies (CSDS), Delhi conducted a nationwide post-poll survey. The fieldwork for the post-poll survey was conducted in 23 States after each phase of voting. The fieldwork began from April 20, 2024 and will go on till June 3, 2024. So far, 18,014 voters have been interviewed (the data for the last phase will be added after the completion of the fieldwork on June 3) in 191 parliamentary constituencies spread across 772 polling stations in 23 States. The respondents randomly selected from the electoral rolls were approached by trained field investigators for an interview at their place of residence after votes had been cast in their respective constituencies.