The outcome of the Assembly poll in Telangana means that K. Chandrashekhar Rao would have to hand over the reins of India’s youngest State to someone else. Since the days of the Statehood agitation, KCR has come to be regarded as the foremost leader of the State. Despite this, he could not mobilise the people of Telangana to vote for the BRS as much as he would have liked in this election. The survey by Lokniti-CSDS throws light on the reasons for this.
One of the factors was the emergence of State Congress chief Revanth Reddy as a leader who could match up to KCR’s popularity. It is significant to note that while 29% of voters wanted KCR as the next Chief Minister, another 29% favoured Reddy.
Among women voters, 31% preferred KCR, while Mr. Reddy was close behind with 26% (Table 1). The Congress leader also managed to build a strong appeal among young voters. Among voters under 25 years, 32% wanted him as CM as opposed to 28% who stood with KCR. Among voters who were 56 years and above, 37% wanted KCR to continue as Chief Minister for another term.
Among the Reddys, 38% wanted the Congress leader to be the next CM, while 25% preferred KCR. Preference for KCR was higher among Dalits and Adivasis, but Reddy did not trail by far. Among Muslims, 33% favoured KCR while 23% wanted Reddy (Table 3).
As the leader of the Statehood agitation, KCR remains popular among those who believe that the creation of Telangana has greatly helped satisfy popular expectations. A total of 60% of such voters preferred KCR over Reddy. But close to half the voters (45%) felt that Statehood only somewhat addressed the issues of people.
The Congress’s great resurgence in Telangana
Among voters in this group, 29% wanted KCR as Chief Minister while, quite importantly, another 29% turned to Reddy (Table 4).
The performance of the State government also appears to have motivated voters to turn away from KCR. Only voters who were fully satisfied with the government’s performance favoured KCR. Even among those who were moderately satisfied with its work, 29% wanted to see Reddy as the next CM (Table 5).
As a matter of fact, the CM face was not an important consideration for voters in this election. Only 14% were influenced by this factor. While 38% made up their voting decision by assessing their respective MLA candidates, for 32%, political parties were the most important consideration (Table 6).
Given the importance placed on parties, voters were likely to side with the one that they perceived to be better. Close to half the voters felt that the BRS was more corrupt compared to the Congress. More than half viewed the BRS to be more nepotistic compared to the Congress.
With regard to Telangana’s development, the BRS was regarded to be better, but the Congress was close behind. The Congress also was considered to be better than the BRS for representing the marginalised communities. Therefore, the Congress appeared to be the better party in the eyes of voters.
Abhinav Pankaj Borbora is a researcher at Lokniti-CSDS, and T. Venkatesh is a doctoral candidate at the University of Hyderabad
