In an unprecedented verdict, a New York jury on May 30 unanimously convicted Donald J. Trump of falsifying records to cover up a sex scandal that threatened to derail his 2016 presidential campaign. The trial, that led to the first-ever criminal conviction of a former U.S. President, could have a significant bearing on Mr. Trump’s voter support barely five months ahead of the U.S Presidential election where he seeks to recapture the White House.
The judge overseeing the case, Juan M. Merchan, set his sentencing for July 11 — just days before the Republican National Convention is set to convene to formally declare Mr. Trump as the presidential nominee. The conviction on 34 Class E felonies carries a potential penalty of four years of imprisonment for each count, although the judge may also consider probation or home confinement as possible alternatives. However, the conviction will not deter him from running for president for another term in the absence of any explicit constitutional bar.
The real estate tycoon faces three other felony indictments, but the Manhatten case — often criticised by legal experts as the weakest of the four prosecutions— is undoubtedly significant since it is the only one to conclude before the November election. The other three cases — two involving accusations in Atlanta and Washington that he conspired to overturn the 2020 election, and a federal indictment in Florida charging him with illegally hoarding top-secret records — are currently mired in delays and appeals.
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Reacting to the verdict, Mr. Trump said that he would be appealing the conviction while downplaying the allegations underlying the case. “It’s not hush money. It’s a nondisclosure agreement, totally legal, totally common,” he said. Addressing reporters at the Trump Tower in New York, the former president further claimed that the trial was “rigged” and a tactic of the Democratic party to derail his electoral bid.
Former U.S. President Donald Trump arrives at Trump Tower on May 30, 2024 in New York City. | Photo Credit: Getty Images via AFP
The felony charges
The historic trial involved charges that Mr. Trump falsified business records in an attempt to cover up payments made to Stormy Daniels, a porn actor who claimed that she had a sexual liaison with the married former president in 2006. The $130,000 payment was made by Mr. Trump’s former lawyer and “fixer” Michael Cohen to buy Ms. Daniel’s silence during the final weeks of the 2016 presidential race — an attempt to interfere in the elections according to the prosecution. When Mr. Cohen was reimbursed, the payments were recorded as legal expenses in an alleged “unlawful attempt” to disguise the true purpose of the transactions. However, the defense argued that they were legitimate legal retainer fees.
The trial, which featured more than four weeks of riveting testimonies, finally persuaded the 12-member jury that Mr. Trump had hatched a conspiracy with Mr. Cohen and David Pecker, the former publisher of The National Enquirer, to buy and suppress claims that could have jeopardised his candidacy. Jury deliberations are, however, confidential and the reasoning behind the ruling will remain unclear unless any of the jurors decides to speak publicly.
The 34 counts were divided into three categories — 11 related to invoices from Mr. Cohen showing payments made to Ms. Daniels, 11 related to checks signed by Trump or using his funds to reimburse Mr. Cohen and 12 related to accounting entries documenting these reimbursements in Mr. Trump’s financial records.
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From the moment Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg announced charges against the real estate tycoon more than a year ago, legal analysts questioned his unconventional strategy — it is not illegal to pay hush money and the misdemeanour counts were all barred by the statute of limitations. However, Mr. Bragg contended that the case was fundamentally about an attempt to corrupt the 2016 presidential election, not merely about past sexual encounters. He argued that this constituted a crime involving the violation of State election laws aimed “to manipulate and defraud the voters, to pull the wool over their eyes in a coordinated fashion.”
Prosecutors were “successful at reframing this as essentially a disinformation operation on the 2016 election, not just the coverup of an affair,” Asha Rangappa, a lawyer and a former FBI agent told Time Magazine.
Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg speaks after the guilty verdict in former U.S. President Donald Trump’s criminal trial. | Photo Credit: REUTERS
The trial
A major challenge for the prosecution was to establish Mr. Cohen’s credibility — the star witness of the trial whose loyalty Mr. Trump had lost. In 2018, he had pleaded guilty to multiple crimes involving the hush-money scheme, including lying to Congress and federal investigators. During the proceedings, the defense lawyer Todd Blanche told the jury about Mr. Cohen’s previous deceitful conduct, including an instance in which he allegedly stole from Mr. Trump’s company. However, prosecutors retorted by saying that Mr. Cohen was hired “because he was willing to lie and cheat on Mr. Trump’s behalf.”
Michael Cohen, the former attorney of former President Donald Trump former attorney, arrives at his home after leaving Manhattan Criminal Court on May 13, 2024 in New York City. Cohen was called to testify as the prosecution’s star witness in the former president’s hush money trial. | Photo Credit: Getty Images via AFP
Over the last couple of months, Mr. Trump has repeatedly targeted Mr. Cohen and the jurors in the case, despite a court-issued gag order that prohibits him from making such public statements. This resulted in Judge Juan M. Merchan holding him guilty of contempt of court and even warning that he might place the former president behind bars.
In the courtroom, the jurors were presented with a recording secretly captured by Mr. Cohen in September 2016. In it, Mr. Trump could be heard discussing a hush money payment to Karen McDougal, a Playboy model who claimed to have had a year-long affair with him. The evidence was further bolstered by Mr. Pecker’s testimony that he had agreed to ensure that unflattering stories which could damage the Trump campaign were never made public. This included having his company buy Ms. McDougal’s silence.
Notably, Ms. Daniels herself testified, offering a detailed account of her affair with the former president which began during a celebrity golf tournament on the shores of Lake Tahoe in 2006. In some of his most incriminating testimony, Mr. Cohen said that Mr. Trump and the then Trump Organization Chief Financial Officer Allen Weisselberg had discussed Ms. Daniel’s payment plan in a January 2017 meeting shortly before Mr. Trump’s inauguration as the president.
“To keep the loyalty and to do the things that he had asked me to do, I violated my moral compass, and I suffered the penalty, as has my family,” Mr. Cohen told the jury in a candid confession.
Although Mr. Trump did not take the stand during the proceedings, his lawyers denied the sexual encounters and argued that his celebrity status, particularly during the 2016 campaign, made him susceptible to extortion attempts. They claimed that the hush money deals were motivated by personal considerations such as the impact on his family and his business, and not political ones.
What happens next?
With Mr. Trump set to appeal his conviction, the American electorate will be left with two distinct choices — a convicted felon or an unpopular incumbent. Although he remains highly competitive in polls, a poll from Bloomberg and Morning Consult earlier this year found that 53% of voters in key swing states would refuse to vote for the Republican if he were convicted. Concurring with this, former prosecutor and government ethics expert Melanie Sloan told Al Jazeera the conviction could “drive a wedge” between Mr. Trump and more moderate constituencies.
The sentencing, set for July 11, will be preceded by the submission of a pre-sentencing report with recommendations based on the defendant’s criminal history. Given that Mr. Trump has no prior convictions, this is likely to work in his favour.
The ruling is also unlikely to dampen his chances of contesting the presidential elections. The U.S. Constitution sets very few eligibility criteria for presidents — they must be at least 35 years old, be a “natural born” citizen and should have lived in the U.S. for at least 14 years. While some States prohibit felons from running for State and local offices, these laws do not apply to federal offices.
However, Section 3 of the 14th Amendment arguably sets out another criterion — it bars those who have “engaged in insurrection or rebellion” after taking an oath to support the Constitution from holding federal offices. Activists have pointed out that the then-president’s actions in the run-up to the January 6, 2021, attack on the US Capitol constitute participation in an insurrection. However, the U.S. Supreme Court earlier this year ruled that Congress would have to pass a special law invoking this prohibition before it can bar Mr. Trump from Colorado’s ballot.
As a convicted felon in New York but a resident of Florida, Mr. Trump’s ability to exercise his franchise depends on the sentence that is imposed on him — and when or if he completes it. Under Florida law, a person with a felony conviction from another State is ineligible to vote only “if the conviction would make the person ineligible to vote in the State where the person was convicted.” New York is one of 23 states where people convicted of a felony can vote, even if they are on parole or probation, as long as they are not incarcerated.
“After New York goes through their process, whether President Trump can vote with a felony conviction will depend on what the State of Florida does,” Neil Volz, deputy director of the Florida Rights Restoration Coalition told The Guardian. “Our belief is that no one should be above the law or below the law when it comes to voter eligibility for people with convictions and that everyone should operate under the same set of standards,” he added.
