Rainfall in July — typically the rainiest of the four monsoon months — is likely to be ‘above normal’ or greater than 106%, of the 28 cm that’s usual for July, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said on Monday. After ‘below normal’ rains in June, the surplus rains in July is expected to help agriculture and boost prospects for kharif sowing.
Nearly all of India is expected to see surplus rainfall except for eastern, northeastern and northwestern India, IMD Director General M. Mohapatra said at a press conference.
The munificent July rains are premised on a 60% chance of the emergence of a La Nina — the converse of an El Nino — and cooling of the central equatorial Pacific by a degree or more. Historically, 20 of the 25 years since 1950 that have seen ‘below normal’ rains in June have resulted in ‘normal’ or ‘above normal’ rains in July, Mr. Mohapatra said.
“Above-normal rainfall can significantly benefit agriculture and water resources but also brings potential risks such as flooding, landslides, surface transport disruptions, public health challenges, and ecosystem damage. To manage these risks effectively, it is essential to reinforce infrastructure, utilise IMD’s early warnings, enhance surveillance and conservation efforts, and establish robust response systems in vulnerable sectors,” the agency said in a press statement.
Were the forecast to bear out, it would bring significant relief from what would be one of the most intense spells of heat waves to have scorched the country from March to June.
The IMD made public statistics at the press conference, showing that this summer, India experienced around a total of 536 ‘heat wave’ days when counted across all 36 meteorological subdivisions — the highest since 2010.
In June alone, India experienced 181 such heat wave days, the highest since 2010. To be sure, the IMD divides India into 36 meteorological subdivisions, and a heat wave on the same calendar day registered in, say, five subdivisions, are counted as five ‘heat wave days.’
Mr. Mohapatra said that the record rainfall reported in Delhi on the June 28 — the highest since 1936 — could not be predicted in advance as it was a “near cloudburst-like situation”. There were multiple weather systems that rapidly converged over the Delhi-NCR (National Capital Region) within a few hours, and the existing set-up of meteorological observatories could not capture this in advance, he told The Hindu.
“Currently, we have three weather radars and will be setting up three more. This should in the future improve our nowcasts (forecasts given three hours in advance), and after that we can improve our 24-hour forecast of such events,” the IMD Director said.
