🌀 Wind Field Shifts and Uncertainty: How Hurricane Milton's Wind Field Could Impact Damage Expectations
🔬 As our Chief Science Officer, Thomas Loridan, highlighted https://lnkd.in/eQxj6KMb, uncertainty in predicting Hurricane Milton's wind maximum is significant. Our analysis shows a key difference between Reask's Left-Hand Side (LHS) Metryc View and a Right-Hand Side (RHS) location for the wind speed maximum.
🗺️ The map below shows the sensitivity between LHS and RHS wind fields using the Reask model, with population density indicated by grey shading (light = high density, dark = low).
In areas like Tampa, wind gusts can vary by up to 20 mph depending on which model is used.
Early weather reports suggest gusts over 90 mph may have reached as far north as Tampa International Airport, consistent with our LHS model. Under the RHS model, those speeds drop to around 70 mph, lowering potential damage. The solid and the dashed lines show the 90 mph wind gust contour for Reask's Metryc view and RHS sensitivity view respectively.
❗This 30% difference is critical—gusts above 90 mph can cause significant damage, while 70 mph gusts suggest more limited impact. The image highlights areas most at risk, including Hillsborough, Pinellas, and Manatee counties.
📈 If you're using an RHS model, be prepared for unexpected impacts—for example insurance claims patterns could shift in densely populated regions near the 90 mph wind gust threshold.
To access our data and asses if your risks are exposed contact us at contact@reask.earth or reach out to our team directly.
With thanks to Nicolas Bruneau for the plot.