Hauck Aufhäuser Investment Banking

Copper is the new gold? Not quite. But one thing is clear: Aurubis is navigating a tough market with remarkable resilience.   Zurich, investor meetings, deep dives into the future of copper refining ­– this week’s roadshow with Aurubis CFO Steffen Hoffmann and VP Investor Relations Ken Nagayama made one thing obvious: despite headwinds, Aurubis is playing the long game.   𝗧𝗵𝗲 𝗕𝗶𝗴 𝗣𝗶𝗰𝘁𝘂𝗿𝗲 Aurubis is facing challenges – falling treatment charges and high ramp-up costs for its U.S. expansion. Yet, the company remains resilient. Why? 👉High metal prices & superior recovery rates support solid earnings levels. 👉Strong demand for sulfuric acid, a key byproduct, provides an unexpected boost.   𝗠𝗮𝗿𝗸𝗲𝘁 𝗙𝗼𝗿𝗰𝗲𝘀 𝗮𝘁 𝗣𝗹𝗮𝘆 China's dominance in copper refining has pushed treatment charges to historic lows, but a recovery is expected. Infrastructure spending & electrification in the U.S. and Europe are long-term catalysts for copper demand.   𝗔𝘂𝗿𝘂𝗯𝗶𝘀’ 𝗦𝘁𝗿𝗮𝘁𝗲𝗴𝗶𝗰 𝗠𝗼𝘃𝗲𝘀 The company isn’t just adapting – it’s shaping the industry’s future: 👉 U.S. expansion: A groundbreaking new recycling plant is set to go live soon, significantly boosting capabilities. 👉 Tech upgrades: Investments in electrolysis, complex recycling, and precious metal refining will drive future growth.   Despite short-term pressure, Aurubis’ strategy is paying off. Strong execution, high metal prices, and strategic investments make it a player to watch in the global copper refining space.   Copper might not be the new gold – but for those paying attention, the long-term value is undeniable.   Thank you very much for this productive day and especially for being #ontheroadwithHAIB!

A hidden champion in staffing – a post-election play? We are initiating coverage on Amadeus Fire AG (AAD), the leading provider of white-collar staffing and training solutions in Germany. Unlike traditional staffing firms, AAD operates a unique one-stop model that combines temporary staffing, permanent placement, and vocational training, embedding itself into clients’ long-term workforce planning. 🔷 What makes AAD different? 𝗠𝗮𝗿𝗸𝗲𝘁 𝗹𝗲𝗮𝗱𝗲𝗿 𝗶𝗻 𝘄𝗵𝗶𝘁𝗲-𝗰𝗼𝗹𝗹𝗮𝗿 𝘀𝘁𝗮𝗳𝗳𝗶𝗻𝗴: AAD holds a 14% market share in Germany’s finance, IT, and tax staffing segment, a highly specialized niche that represents 2% of the total staffing market. 𝗘𝗺𝗯𝗲𝗱𝗱𝗲𝗱 𝗰𝗹𝗶𝗲𝗻𝘁 𝗿𝗲𝗹𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻𝘀𝗵𝗶𝗽𝘀 𝗱𝗿𝗶𝘃𝗲 𝗿𝗲𝘁𝗲𝗻𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻: The integration of staffing and training creates high switching costs, as companies rely on AAD for both talent acquisition and employee development, ensuring long-term client stickiness. 𝗦𝘁𝗿𝘂𝗰𝘁𝘂𝗿𝗮𝗹𝗹𝘆 𝗵𝗶𝗴𝗵𝗲𝗿 𝗺𝗮𝗿𝗴𝗶𝗻𝘀 𝘁𝗵𝗮𝗻 𝗽𝗲𝗲𝗿𝘀: AAD benefits from premium white-collar placements, where permanent staffing fees generate near-pure gross profit, and a training segment with 60%+ gross margins, resulting in industry-leading EBIT margins. 📈 Why now? 𝗧𝗿𝗮𝗶𝗻𝗶𝗻𝗴-𝗹𝗲𝗱 𝘀𝘁𝗮𝗳𝗳𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗴𝗿𝗼𝘄𝘁𝗵: As skill shortages intensify, corporate investment in upskilling and reskilling is accelerating, driving a 5% CAGR in training into 2030E (eHAIB). This directly feeds into staffing demand, increasing talent supply, placement volumes, and margin expansion. 𝗣𝗼𝗹𝗶𝗰𝘆-𝗱𝗿𝗶𝘃𝗲𝗻 𝗵𝗶𝗿𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗿𝗲𝗯𝗼𝘂𝗻𝗱: A CDU-SPD coalition is expected to ease hiring restrictions, introduce corporate tax relief, and expand workforce reskilling programs, supporting staffing recovery and wage-driven pricing power from H2'25E onward. 𝗔𝘁𝘁𝗿𝗮𝗰𝘁𝗶𝘃𝗲 𝘃𝗮𝗹𝘂𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 𝘄𝗶𝘁𝗵 𝗱𝗼𝘄𝗻𝘀𝗶𝗱𝗲 𝗽𝗿𝗼𝘁𝗲𝗰𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻: The staffing industry is undergoing interesting changes – especially in light of potential policy shifts after the election. 💡 The role of training and reskilling in staffing is becoming increasingly important – companies with integrated solutions could benefit from this shift. We’re eager to see how AAD capitalizes on these opportunities and will keep you posted with further insights. 📩 If you’re an institutional investor and interested in our research, feel free to reach out at research@ha-ib.de.

The market is missing something big in construction! We are initiating coverage on wienerberger AG, a global leader in construction materials with a 200+ year track record of resilience and innovation. Despite recent headwinds, we believe the market is underestimating the incremental profitability, as well as the scale and speed of the recovery ahead. 🏗 Why Wienerberger? - Market leader in ceramic products and plastic pipes with strong brand equity and deep customer relationships. - Operating in residential, renovation, and infrastructure markets across Europe and North America. - Significant exposure to a cyclical rebound, set for significant margin expansion as Europe shows early signs of recovery. 📈 What’s driving the upside? Newbuild recovery: Housing activity in Europe is stabilizing, visible in increasing building permits and rising brick production. Historical cycles suggest a rapid acceleration, potentially adding meaningful organic volume growth over the next three years. Structural demand drivers: The EU’s energy efficiency targets aim to double renovation rates by 2030, which should provide additional growth momentum over the next five years. Potential tailwinds: A resolution in Ukraine could further support demand. 💡 The market isn't pricing in the full rebound. We see stronger recovery potential than currently reflected in market expectations, both in terms of revenue and profitability. We’re excited to see where Wienerberger’s journey leads and will keep you updated along the way. 📩 If you’re an institutional investor and interested in our research, feel free to reach out at research@ha-ib.de.

It's always great to get first-hand insights from the new CEO of a company we’ve been following for years... At the sidelines of a recent event, our analyst Simon had the opportunity to meet the relatively new CEO of flatexDEGIRO, Oliver Behrens. For those unfamiliar, flatexDEGIRO is a leading pan-European online brokerage firm with over 3 million customer accounts. The company generates around 64% of its revenue from brokerage services, while credit and treasury operations contribute about 33%. The discussion? A deep dive into the company’s long-term strategy, the key levers for success, and – most interestingly – its ambitious 2027 targets. With a profit goal of €200m, flatexDEGIRO is aiming high – above our current estimates. So, how do they plan to get there? 👉 Product expansion – Broadening access to crypto trading at competitive costs and leveraging securities lending to create new revenue streams. 👉 Service improvements – Enhancing customer experience to strengthen retention and growth. A bold roadmap. We look forward to tracking their progress and seeing whether they can hit these targets.

Börsengang? Lieber nicht... Oder doch?   Am Wochenende gab es einen spannenden Artikel von Philipp Heinrich auf The Pioneer über das große Börsensterben in Deutschland. Weniger IPOs, mehr Delistings, schwindende Aktienkultur – all das sind natürlich valide Beobachtungen. Und ja, die letzten Jahre sahen alles andere als gut aus, was Börsengänge angeht… besonders im Small und Mid Cap Bereich.   Aber genau hier liegt der Knackpunkt: Optimismus und ein positiver Blick auf die Zukunft trotz aller Herausforderungen ist nicht unbedingt das, was uns hierzulande auszeichnet. Das führt oft dazu, dass wir das richtige Timing verpassen.    Typisch deutsch ist nämlich nicht nur die Bürokratie oder die Angst vor Aktien, sondern auch das Talent, die falschen Zeitpunkte zu erwischen. Wenn die Märkte heißlaufen, kommen alle und wenn sich ein Tiefpunkt abzeichnet, ziehen sich viele zurück. Doch wer immer nur nach hinten schaut, verpasst die Wende.   Zugegeben: Ich war im vergangenen Jahren selbst etwas skeptisch, was das Kapitalmarktumfeld angeht. Aber aus vielen Meetings und Gesprächen mit möglichen Kandidaten kristallisiert sich eines sehr stark heraus – der Wind dreht.   Die EZB hat die Zinswende eingeläutet, die Angelsachsen entdecken nach dem Aus der ungeliebten Regierung den Markt wieder, Mid-Caps rücken in den Fokus und es gibt eine wachsende Pipeline an Unternehmen, die sich die Tür zum Kapitalmarkt offenhalten. Genau jetzt ist der falsche Moment, sich von der Börse zurückzuziehen oder einen IPO auf die lange Bank zu schieben.   Passend dazu berichtete die Financial Times übrigens erst gestern, dass Ottobock einen IPO in Deutschland plant. Zusammen mit den vielen weiteren geplanten Börsengänge wird das dem Markt den nötigen Anschub geben…

Back on the streets of Zurich! 🇨🇭 On Tuesday, Jorge and Alexander joined the SAF-HOLLAND Group roadshow, supporting SAF-Holland CFO Frank Lorenz-Dietz and VP IR Dana Unger through a full day of investor meetings. 👉 Business Performance & 2025 Outlook Despite continued weakness in OE demand, SAF-Holland remains optimistic about 2025. This confidence is driven by the strong visibility of its aftermarket business, which accounts for more than two-thirds of the company’s adjusted EBIT, as well as expectations of a market recovery throughout the year. 👉 2024 Results & Market Environment Preliminary 2024 results confirm SAF’s resilience even in a challenging market environment. OE volumes are expected to remain low in the first half of 2025, particularly for trucks and – partially – for trailers in EMEA, due to strong prior-year comparables. However, SAF anticipates a faster recovery in the trailer segment in H2, which could lead to stable or even moderately higher volumes. Meanwhile, the APAC region is set to see solid volume growth, driven by rising public investments in India. 👉 Geopolitical Factors & Business Strategy Despite geopolitical uncertainties and potential U.S. tariffs, SAF is well prepared. Its "local for local" strategy enables the company to respond flexibly to trade barriers. In North America, SAF-Holland has recently expanded its production capacity for fifth wheels in Mexico to support key customers growth. However, if tariffs are introduced, SAF is confident in its ability to adapt production accordingly between its plants in Canada, Mexico and US. 👉 Capital Markets & Valuation In our view, the strong 2024 performance and further synergy opportunities with Haldex could justify an upward revision of the medium-term profitability targets in the upcoming Capital Markets Day (CMD) on March 27. A huge thank you for an insightful day – and most importantly, for being #ontheroadwithHAIB!

The countdown is on! ⏳   The Stockpicker Summit is just around the corner! In just under three months, we’ll once again bring together top executives from exciting listed companies and investors from across Europe and North America.   2025 is a special year for us: it’s a home game! That means we’re inviting you to our beautiful city of Hamburg. Over the next few weeks, we’ll be revealing what’s in store for you, piece by piece.   Let’s start with our incredible venue: Hotel TORTUE HAMBURG 💙   Nestled in the heart of Hamburg’s Neustadt district, between Stadthausbrücke and Neuer Wall, this elegant hotel blends French nonchalance with Hanseatic sophistication. Expect stylishly designed rooms, outstanding gastronomy - from a refined brasserie to Asian fusion cuisine - and a bar serving exceptional cocktails. As always, our one-on-one meetings will take place throughout the hotel, making the most of its diverse and inspiring spaces. Whether in an intimate salon or a stylish lounge, every setting is designed to spark productive conversations. And for those who want to take their insights beyond the event, the hotel even has a fully equipped podcast Studio - perfect for capturing key takeaways or recording exclusive interviews.   This will be the setting for our meetings and the kick-off party. We don’t want to give too much away just yet, but trust us - it’s going to be unforgettable! 😍

Right at the start of 2025 and in the middle of the frosty capital market winter Hauck Aufhäuser Investment Banking was able to successfully raise EUR 85 million equity for HomeToGo, the SaaS-enabled marketplace with the world’s largest selection of vacation rentals. The net proceeds from the equity raise will be used to partially finance the acquisition of Interhome, Europe’s second largest vacation rental management company. A transformational deal in all aspects: First, with Interhome on board, HomeToGo is well positioned to become Europe’s leading vacation rental platform. Second, the equity raise represents the first successful equity transaction in Germany in 2025 and the largest primary accelerated bookbuilt placing by % of company in Germany for over 10 years. Congratulations to Patrick Andrae, Steffen S., Sebastian Grabert, CFA, Carsten Fricke, CFA, Christoph Rieckmann and the whole deal team. We are #HAIBGlobalCoordinator Please get in touch with us if you are looking to raise capital or considering purchasing/ monetizing a stake in the small and midcap capital markets.

HAIB Transaction Tracker: capital increase for HomeToGo   Yesterday, we successfully completed a capital increase as Joint Global Coordinator. In total, we placed EUR 85m.   Congratulations to CEO Patrick Andrae, CFO Steffen S., and Director IR & Corporate Finance Sebastian Grabert, CFA on this achievement!   A big thank you for your trust in us and to everyone involved for the excellent collaboration.

Deutschlands Wirtschaft in der Krise und der DAX jagt täglich neue Rekorde? 🤔 Wachstumsschwäche, hohe Energiekosten, überbordende Bürokratie… wenn es um die deutsche Wirtschaft geht, haben wir bereits deutlich bessere Zeiten gesehen. Dennoch hat der DAX heute – wieder einmal – ein neues Allzeithoch erreicht. Wie kann das sein? Auch wenn ich nicht wirklich daran glaube, scheinen die angelsächsischen Investoren aktuell ein klares Szenario zu spielen: Die CDU gewinnt die nächste Wahl, koaliert mit der SPD, die Grünen sind raus. Und plötzlich fließt wieder Geld nach Deutschland. Der Gedanke dahinter? Eine gelockerte Schuldenbremse, staatliche Infrastrukturinvestitionen, ein kurzfristiger wirtschaftlicher Impuls. Also ein Strohfeuer ohne echte Reformen, das aber der Börse guttut. Ob das wirklich so kommt? Fraglich. Ob es ein interessantes Narrativ für Investoren ist? Definitiv. Und solange sie dieses Szenario spielen, gibt das dem Markt Rückenwind. Ich sehe das Ganze jedenfalls positiv: schlimmer als in den letzten drei Jahren kann es kaum mehr werden 😊