Statista

U.S. voters in 10 states headed to the polls on Tuesday to decide on a number of constitutional amendments to protect or expand abortion rights. According to projections by NBC News, a majority of these voted in favor of strengthening abortion rights within their states. Voters in Arizona and Missouri backed measures to protect abortion rights until fetal viability. At the same time, voters supported measures in Colorado, Maryland, Montana and New York to formally enshrine their existing rights into the constitution, making them more steadfast, as they are harder to change by lawmakers in the future. In New York, voters additionally supported an amendment which will ban discrimination over pregnancy or reproductive health. Florida fell short, however, of the 60 percent of support needed to overturn an abortion ban for women more than six weeks pregnant or to allow for abortions when necessary to protect the patient's health "as determined by the patient's healthcare provider". In South Dakota too, a proposal to protect the right to abortion in the first trimester was also rejected. If it had been passed, the measure would have also allowed for the state to permit abortion in the second or third trimester if a physician determined the care would be necessary to preserve life or health. Voters in Nebraska approved measures banning abortions after the first trimester, with exceptions for rape, incest or health emergencies. The results are not yet in on whether voters will approve a second, competing amendment granting the right to abortion before fetal viability (first and second trimester), which would then protect abortions in the first trimester only. This would be an improvement over the current, non-protected 12-week ban in the state.

Exit polls from the 2024 U.S. presidential election suggest a 10 percentage point gender gap in votes for Democrat Kamala Harris and Republican Donald Trump. While a majority of female U.S. voters picked Harris, a majority of male voters went with Trump, who is the projected winner of the contest as of late Tuesday night. A small majority of white women picked Trump over Harris, which was counteracted by fewer votes from Hispanic and Black females for Trump, so that in the end, the exit polls estimate that only 44 percent of U.S. women overall are in support of their new president. Support among Black women voters was lowest at just 7 percent voting for Trump, according to exit polls. While projected support among Hispanic women stood at 37 percent, this was a significant 7 percentage points up from exit polls in 2020. At 36.2 million, Latinos make up around 15 percent of eligible U.S. voters and are a fast-growing demographic. Exit polls also showed, however, that despite diversity growing in the U.S. population, voter turnout from Black and Hispanic Americans lagged. Edison estimates that 71 percent of voters nationwide were white in 2024, four percentage points more than in 2020. Meanwhile the share of Black and Hispanic voters sank by 1-2 percentage points to 11 percent and 12 percent, respectively. While white women are projected to have turned out in higher numbers (and with fewer votes for Trump than last time), white male turnout is expected to have sunken slightly.

The share of people who consider themselves on the far left or far right of the political spectrum is particularly high in the United States. This is the result of a survey by Statista Consumer Insights. 11 percent of U.S. respondents said they saw themselves on the far left (0 out of 10 points) and 19 percent on the far right (10 out of 10 points). By comparison, only 6 percent of Germans place themselves on the far left and only 7 percent on the far right. In the country, being centrist is also much more common at 24 percent, opposite the U.S.' 18 percent. In France, centrism was the least pronounced at 14 percent, while 9 percent saw themselves most on the left and a whopping 17 percent most on the right. While a similar amount of French people and Americans rated themselves as on the right and on the left, positions to the very far left and the very far right were relatively stronger in the U.S., with France a little behind. Attitudes in the United Kingdom resembled Germany more, with an additional uptick on the very right thrown in. Despite the polarization, Americans are less likely to identify with Republicans or Democrats. In the 2024 U.S. election, exit polls suggest that Independents for the first time tied as the biggest group of voters with Republicans. One explanation for this trend could be the loss of trust in democratic institutions by the American public. This has also affected trust in the president, the Supreme Court and Congress.

It is well-known that certain polls on the U.S. election differ significantly depending on who publishes them and what methodology they use. Polling aggregators want to eliminate some of this uncertainty by calculating averages of different recent polls. But in an election that is as close as the 2024 U.S. presidential race, even aggregators are now receiving scrutiny concerning their methods and potential political leanings. A look at current polling aggregator averages does reveal that their results differ some. However, many of the disparities are within the margin of error of around 3 to 5 percent (in either direction) that applies to most polls of this type. RealClear Polling, identified as the most right-leaning aggregator, sees Donald Trump leading in four out of seven battleground states with more than 1 percentage point. FiveThirtyEight by ABC News only has the Republican candidate this far ahead in three out of the seven states that will likely decide the upcoming election on Tuesday. While RealClear Polling showed an improved outlook for Trump earlier on, FiveThirtyEight's polling average has more recently veered to show a stronger outlook for him. The New York Times sees a slimmer Trump lead in many of the same states, with only Arizona and Georgia at a 1 percentage point lead or above. Independent operations VoteHub and Split Ticket see Democrat Kamala Harris' outlook more positively, if still well within the margin of error. Generally, the states that Trump leads across the board, however narrowly, tend to hold more electoral college votes, like Arizona (11), Georgia (16) and North Carolina (16). This is opposed to the states where Harris is consistently showing a small lead: Wisconsin (10) and Michigan (15). Out of the states in question, Pennsylvania has the most electoral college votes at 19 as well as the smallest margins observed by the pollsters, making it potentially the most pivotal battleground come Tuesday. Among non-battleground states, it is Harris who has a small lead, so that winning Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania would be sufficient to reach a majority of 270 electoral college vote (when also winning Nebraska's second district and not losing any non-battleground states now attributed to her).

Chapman University started fielding a survey on Americans’ greatest fears around Halloween a decade ago, including everything from fears of biowarfare to ghosts, reptiles and blood. In the years since, the study’s authors have made several observations on the changing mindsets of U.S. adults. For one, corruption of government officials has topped the list of fears every year since the survey began, back in 2015. Nearly two thirds of U.S. respondents said that they were either afraid or very afraid of the prospect when surveyed in 2024, although it has come down from the peak of 79.6 percent of respondents picking the option in 2020/2021. This fear ranks even higher than more personal fears of losing a loved one or a loved one falling seriously ill. According to the researchers, the fear of corruption extends not only to Federal levels of government but also to those of local and state. Reflecting on the impact of such a fear, the researchers suggest that the fact “citizens may be attracted to populist rhetoric decrying career politicians and the political establishment could have its roots in distrust driven by fear of corruption.” Although a fear of the outcome of the upcoming presidential election was not among the top ten highest ranking fears in the 2024 survey wave, just over half of respondents said they feared the prospect (51.6 percent). By party leaning, Democrats (56 percent) and Independents (54 percent) were slightly more likely to have this worry than Republicans (50.4 percent). The authors say this fear is likely linked to the fear of corruption, as well as fears of civil unrest (48.6 percent of respondents) and in some cases, the fear of an overthrow of the U.S. government (39.4 percent). The results of this survey also tend to reflect current events. Christopher Bader, Ph.D., chair and professor of sociology at Chapman University, explains that “recent world events have stirred fears about war and terror attacks.” Of the top ten fears, six were linked to war or different forms of warfare, including fears about Russia using nuclear weapons (#5), the U.S. becoming involved in another world war (#7), North Korea using nuclear weapons (#8), terrorist attacks (#9), cyberterrorism (#3) and biological warfare (#10).

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Following an uptick in IPO activity in 2023, with Instacart, Klaviyo and Birkenstock among the larger names making their stock market debut last year, the U.S. IPO market continued its gradual recovery in 2024 so far. Three quarters into the year, the market has already eclipsed last year's total in terms of capital raised, as the number of completed offerings is just six shy of last year's total. Reddit's highly anticipated IPO in March was one of the banner deals of the year and served as proof of a slightly more favorable environment compared to the past two years. The company's shares are currently trading at $81, up more than 100 percent from its IPO price of $34. According to Dealogic data analyzed by EY, companies raised $27.3 billion in 121 initial public offerings in the U.S. so far this year, compared to $19.4 billion in 101 IPOs during the same period of 2023. Going forward, EY expects IPO activity to possibly cool in Q4 as the U.S. presidential election and geopolitical concerns create an environment of uncertainty that companies and underwriting banks will try to avoid. That cautious approach could create a backlog of IPOs for 2025, which could see a return to more normal IPO activity if the Fed continues on its path of gradually loosening monetary conditions.

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With election day just one week away, we’re entering the final stretch of what has been a turbulent and, in many ways, remarkable presidential race. We’ve seen the sitting president step aside, two assassination attempts and a criminal conviction in what both sides of the political spectrum are making out to be a presidential race that will determine the fate of American democracy. Given the perceived gravity of the election outcome and the degree of polarization of the American public, it’s no surprise that countless celebrities, be it singers, actors, athletes or billionaire businessmen, have weighed in on the race, endorsing either of the two candidates and calling on their fans to do the same. And while some of these public figures have tens, sometimes hundreds of millions of followers on social media, it’s unclear how much of an effect celebrity endorsements actually have. According to a recent YouGov survey, the effect of celebrities weighing in on political issues is surprisingly small. Just 7 percent of respondents said that a celebrity endorsement has ever made them support a candidate and 11 percent said they reconsidered their position on a political issue based on a celebrity’s opinion before. Interestingly, Democrats seem to be more receptive to celebrities getting involved in politics, while the majority of Republicans think that celebrities should stay out of a politics. Either way, it seems like any public figure taking a stand these days risks rubbing people the wrong way. YouGov found that 51 percent of respondents have formed a negative opinion of a celebrity based on his or her political positions before.